Here is Why Bitcoin Could Surprise Investors This Month

Bitcoin could be entering a strong phase this May, defying the seasonal hesitation that often weighs on traditional markets.

Bitcoin could be setting itself up for a strong month in May, surprising some who expect traditional seasonal trends to carry over from the stock market.

Several macro and market-specific signals suggest that momentum may be rolling over, rather than continuing in a downward direction.

Analysts have pointed to a growing connection between Bitcoin’s price and global money supply metrics like M2.

This connection has been a topic of interest for several market participants, especially as major central banks continue cutting interest rates and expanding their balance sheets.

Rising Liquidity May Spark Further Bitcoin Gains

The thinking goes that, as central banks increase liquidity—through rate cuts or asset purchases—Bitcoin tends to rise.

With expansionary policies taking hold in major economies, this trend may be repeating. Data from Kaduna shows that Bitcoin price action often trails M2 movements by roughly 90 days, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could continue moving higher in the coming weeks.

This view is further supported by past performance. Over the last 12 years, Bitcoin has posted average May returns of nearly 8%, rendering it one of the best-performing months on average.

While crypto price action is notoriously volatile and unpredictable in the short term, May has statistically clocked in with more bullish performance than bearish performance.

At the same time, institutional flows are also rolling over. Recent ETF data shows that investors are continuing to allocate capital to Bitcoin in droves.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw a single day of net inflows totaling nearly $1 billion, pushing its total past $42 billion.

This surge in demand on a single day speaks to the confidence that investors have in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, which could fuel further price appreciation.

Bitcoin Price Action vs. Global Money Supply (M2) | Via Kaduna

Moreover, Bitcoin is increasingly moving independently from equities.

Analysts have noted its divergence from major indexes like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, interpreting it as a sign that crypto is no longer just a proxy for risk assets, but a maturing store of value with its own momentum.

Of course, economic updates—such as interest rate changes or inflation data—could create some turbulence in the market.

But the combination of rising liquidity, institutional adoption, and relative strength positions Bitcoin well for a potentially strong performance in the month ahead.