比特幣在2025年飆升，引發了人們對歷史性比特幣超級週期的猜測

在一年開始的動蕩之後，恢復了勢頭，恢復情緒，看漲指標的分析師問：我們是否在2017年比特幣公牛奔跑重複的風口浪尖？

Bitcoin (BTC) price is surging in 2025, leading to speculation about a historic Bitcoin supercycle. After a volatile start to the year, renewed momentum, recovering sentiment, and bullish metrics have analysts discussing: Are we on the cusp of a 2017 Bitcoin bull run repeat? This Bitcoin price analysis explores cycle comparisons, investor behavior, and long-term holder trends to assess the likelihood of an explosive phase in this cryptocurrency market cycle.

比特幣（BTC）的價格在2025年飆升，導致人們對歷史悠久的比特幣超級循環的猜測。經過一年的動蕩之後，恢復的勢頭，恢復情緒，看漲的指標分析師討論了：我們是否在2017年比特幣公牛跑步重複的風口浪尖？該比特幣價格分析探討了周期比較，投資者的行為和長期持有人趨勢，以評估該加密貨幣市場週期中爆炸性階段的可能性。

How the 2025 Bitcoin Cycle Compares to Past Bull Runs

2025比特幣週期與過去的公牛跑步相比

According to the BTC Growth Since Cycle Low chart by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, the cryptocurrency’s trajectory aligns closely with the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 cycles, despite macro challenges and drawdowns.

根據BTC的增長，比特幣雜誌PRO自循環低圖表以來，儘管有宏觀的挑戰和縮減，但加密貨幣的軌跡與2016 - 2017年和2020-2021循環緊密保持一致。

As we reach the ninth month of 2025, we’re approximately 900 days into the current cycle. Typically, Bitcoin market cycles peak around 1,100 days from their lows. This leaves several hundred days for potential explosive Bitcoin price growth. But do investor behaviors and market mechanics support a Bitcoin supercycle 2025?

當我們到達2025年的第九個月時，我們大約是當前週期的900天。通常，比特幣市場週期的低點約為1100天。這留下了數百天的潛在爆炸性比特幣價格增長。但是，投資者的行為和市場力學支持比特幣超級循環2025？

Bitcoin Investor Behavior: Echoes of the 2017 Bull Run

比特幣投資者的行為：2017年公牛奔跑的迴聲

To gauge cryptocurrency investor psychology, the 2-Year Rolling MVRV-Z Score provides critical insights. This advanced metric, available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, accounts for lost coins, illiquid supply, growing ETF and institutional holdings, and shifting long-term Bitcoin holder behaviors.

為了衡量加密貨幣投資者心理學，為期兩年的滾動MVRV-Z得分提供了關鍵的見解。該先進的度量標準可在比特幣雜誌Pro上可用，涉及丟失的硬幣，流動性供應不足，ETF和機構持有量以及轉移長期比特幣持有人的行為。

Last year, when Bitcoin price hit ~$73,000, the MVRV-Z Score reached 3.39—a high but not unprecedented level. From that peak, we saw retracements, which can be attributed to mid-cycle consolidations, similar to those observed in 2017.

去年，當比特幣價格達到73,000美元時，MVRV-Z得分達到3.39，但最高但不是前所未有的水平。從那個峰開始，我們看到了反回曲，這可以歸因於中期固結，類似於2017年觀察到的鞏固。

During the 2017 cycle, we saw multiple high-score peaks before the final parabolic Bitcoin rally. Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, a cross-cycle analysis reveals a striking 91.5% behavioral correlation with the 2013 double-peak cycle.

在2017年周期中，我們在最終的拋物線比特幣集會之前看到了多個高分峰。使用比特幣雜誌Pro API，交叉週期分析顯示，與2013年雙峰週期的行為相關性91.5％。

With two major tops already—one pre-halving ($74k) and one post-halving ($100k+ ), we could be setting up for a third all-time high. If realized, this would mark Bitcoin’s first-ever triple-peak bull cycle, a potential hallmark of a Bitcoin supercycle.

已經有兩個主要頂級 - 一個前售（7.4K）和一個後售後（$ 100k+），我們可能會設置為第三次歷史最高水平。如果意識到，這將標誌著比特幣有史以來第一個三峰公牛循環，這是比特幣超級循環的潛在標誌。

The 2017 cycle shows a 58.6% behavioral correlation, while 2021’s investor behavior is less similar, though its Bitcoin price action correlation is at ~75%.

2017年周期的行為相關性為58.6％，而2021年的投資者行為卻不相似，儘管其比特幣價格動作相關性約為75％。

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Signal Strong Confidence

長期比特幣持有人信號很強

The 1+ Year HODL Wave, another indicator available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, shows the percentage of BTC unmoved for a year or more continues to rise, even as prices climb—a rare trend in bull markets that reflects strong long-term holder conviction.

比特幣雜誌Pro上的另一個指標1年以上的HODL Wave顯示，即使價格上漲，BTC不動的百分比仍在上升，即使價格上漲，這是反映了強烈的長期持有人信念的罕見趨勢。

As seen in the past, sharp rises in the HODL wave’s rate of change signal major bottoms, while sharp declines mark tops. Currently, the metric is at a neutral inflection point, far from peak distribution, indicating long-term Bitcoin investors expect significantly higher prices.

從過去看到的那樣，夏普在HODL波的變化速率中升高，信號主要底部，而Sharp下降了Mark Tops。目前，該指標處於中性拐點，遠非峰值分佈，表明長期比特幣投資者預計價格明顯更高。

Bitcoin Supercycle or More Consolidation?

比特幣超級循環還是更多合併？

Could Bitcoin be replicating 2017’s euphoric parabolic rally? It’s possible, but this cycle may carve a unique path, blending historical patterns with modern cryptocurrency market dynamics.

比特幣可以復制2017年的欣快拋物線集會嗎？這是可能的，但是這個週期可能會雕刻出獨特的路徑，將歷史模式與現代加密貨幣市場動態融為一體。

We may be approaching a third major peak within this cycle—a first in Bitcoin’s history. According to the analysis, this might not trigger a full Bitcoin supercycle melt-up, but key metrics suggest BTC is far from topping.

在這個週期內，我們可能會接近第三個主要峰，這是比特幣歷史上的第一個。根據分析，這可能不會觸發完整的比特幣超級循環融化，但是關鍵指標表明BTC遠非替代品。

With new all-time highs in sight, the macroeconomic environment is changing rapidly, and optimism among crypto traders is returning. As the dust settles on 2024’s dramatic market events, we’re left with several key takeaways.

隨著新的歷史最高水平，宏觀經濟環境正在迅速變化，加密貨幣交易員的樂觀情緒正在返回。隨著塵埃落定在2024年的戲劇性市場活動中，我們還有幾個關鍵的收穫。

Despite the recent price declines, the long-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish. With new all-time highs in sight, the macroeconomic environment is changing rapidly, and optimism among crypto traders is returning.

儘管價格最近下降，但比特幣的長期趨勢仍然是看好的。隨著新的歷史最高水平，宏觀經濟環境正在迅速變化，加密貨幣交易員的樂觀情緒正在返回。

As the dust settles on 2024’s dramatic market events, we’re left with several key takeaways. Despite the recent price declines, the long-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish.

隨著塵埃落定在2024年的戲劇性市場活動中，我們還有幾個關鍵的收穫。儘管價格最近下降，但比特幣的長期趨勢仍然是看好的。

The correlation between Bitcoin and the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly apparent. The shift in monetary policy and the potential for a weaker dollar could spell good news for crypto investors in the coming months and years.

比特幣與宏觀經濟環境之間的相關性變得越來越明顯。在未來幾個月和幾年中，貨幣政策的轉變和美元薄弱的潛力可能會為加密投資者帶來好消息。

The crypto market is also maturing, with more institutional involvement and the launch of crucial products like the Bitcoin ETF.

加密貨幣市場也在成熟，機構的參與程度更高，並且推出了比特幣ETF等關鍵產品。

Together, these factors suggest that the stage is set for sustained Bitcoin price expansion.

這些因素一起表明，階段是為了持續的比特幣價格上漲。

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

有關更深入的研究，技術指標，實時市場警報以及與不斷增長的分析師社區的訪問，請訪問Bitcoin Magazine Pro。