比特币在2025年飙升，引发了人们对历史性比特币超级周期的猜测

在一年开始的动荡之后，恢复了势头，恢复情绪，看涨指标的分析师问：我们是否在2017年比特币公牛奔跑重复的风口浪尖？

Bitcoin (BTC) price is surging in 2025, leading to speculation about a historic Bitcoin supercycle. After a volatile start to the year, renewed momentum, recovering sentiment, and bullish metrics have analysts discussing: Are we on the cusp of a 2017 Bitcoin bull run repeat? This Bitcoin price analysis explores cycle comparisons, investor behavior, and long-term holder trends to assess the likelihood of an explosive phase in this cryptocurrency market cycle.

比特币（BTC）的价格在2025年飙升，导致人们对历史悠久的比特币超级循环的猜测。经过一年的动荡之后，恢复的势头，恢复情绪，看涨的指标分析师讨论了：我们是否在2017年比特币公牛跑步重复的风口浪尖？该比特币价格分析探讨了周期比较，投资者的行为和长期持有人趋势，以评估该加密货币市场周期中爆炸性阶段的可能性。

How the 2025 Bitcoin Cycle Compares to Past Bull Runs

2025比特币周期与过去的公牛跑步相比

According to the BTC Growth Since Cycle Low chart by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, the cryptocurrency’s trajectory aligns closely with the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 cycles, despite macro challenges and drawdowns.

根据BTC的增长，比特币杂志PRO自循环低图表以来，尽管有宏观的挑战和缩减，但加密货币的轨迹与2016 - 2017年和2020-2021循环紧密保持一致。

As we reach the ninth month of 2025, we’re approximately 900 days into the current cycle. Typically, Bitcoin market cycles peak around 1,100 days from their lows. This leaves several hundred days for potential explosive Bitcoin price growth. But do investor behaviors and market mechanics support a Bitcoin supercycle 2025?

当我们到达2025年的第九个月时，我们大约是当前周期的900天。通常，比特币市场周期的低点约为1100天。这留下了数百天的潜在爆炸性比特币价格增长。但是，投资者的行为和市场力学支持比特币超级循环2025？

Bitcoin Investor Behavior: Echoes of the 2017 Bull Run

比特币投资者的行为：2017年公牛奔跑的回声

To gauge cryptocurrency investor psychology, the 2-Year Rolling MVRV-Z Score provides critical insights. This advanced metric, available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, accounts for lost coins, illiquid supply, growing ETF and institutional holdings, and shifting long-term Bitcoin holder behaviors.

为了衡量加密货币投资者心理学，为期两年的滚动MVRV-Z得分提供了关键的见解。该先进的度量标准可在比特币杂志Pro上可用，涉及丢失的硬币，流动性供应不足，ETF和机构持有量以及转移长期比特币持有人的行为。

Last year, when Bitcoin price hit ~$73,000, the MVRV-Z Score reached 3.39—a high but not unprecedented level. From that peak, we saw retracements, which can be attributed to mid-cycle consolidations, similar to those observed in 2017.

去年，当比特币价格达到73,000美元时，MVRV-Z得分达到3.39，但最高但不是前所未有的水平。从那个峰开始，我们看到了反回曲，这可以归因于中期固结，类似于2017年观察到的巩固。

During the 2017 cycle, we saw multiple high-score peaks before the final parabolic Bitcoin rally. Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, a cross-cycle analysis reveals a striking 91.5% behavioral correlation with the 2013 double-peak cycle.

在2017年周期中，我们在最终的抛物线比特币集会之前看到了多个高分峰。使用比特币杂志Pro API，交叉周期分析显示，与2013年双峰周期的行为相关性91.5％。

With two major tops already—one pre-halving ($74k) and one post-halving ($100k+ ), we could be setting up for a third all-time high. If realized, this would mark Bitcoin’s first-ever triple-peak bull cycle, a potential hallmark of a Bitcoin supercycle.

已经有两个主要顶级 - 一个前售（7.4K）和一个后售后（$ 100k+），我们可能会设置为第三次历史最高水平。如果意识到，这将标志着比特币有史以来第一个三峰公牛循环，这是比特币超级循环的潜在标志。

The 2017 cycle shows a 58.6% behavioral correlation, while 2021’s investor behavior is less similar, though its Bitcoin price action correlation is at ~75%.

2017年周期的行为相关性为58.6％，而2021年的投资者行为却不相似，尽管其比特币价格动作相关性约为75％。

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Signal Strong Confidence

长期比特币持有人信号很强

The 1+ Year HODL Wave, another indicator available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, shows the percentage of BTC unmoved for a year or more continues to rise, even as prices climb—a rare trend in bull markets that reflects strong long-term holder conviction.

比特币杂志Pro上的另一个指标1年以上的HODL Wave显示，即使价格上涨，BTC不动的百分比仍在上升，即使价格上涨，这是反映了强烈的长期持有人信念的罕见趋势。

As seen in the past, sharp rises in the HODL wave’s rate of change signal major bottoms, while sharp declines mark tops. Currently, the metric is at a neutral inflection point, far from peak distribution, indicating long-term Bitcoin investors expect significantly higher prices.

从过去看到的那样，夏普在HODL波的变化速率中升高，信号主要底部，而Sharp下降了Mark Tops。目前，该指标处于中性拐点，远非峰值分布，表明长期比特币投资者预计价格明显更高。

Bitcoin Supercycle or More Consolidation?

比特币超级循环还是更多合并？

Could Bitcoin be replicating 2017’s euphoric parabolic rally? It’s possible, but this cycle may carve a unique path, blending historical patterns with modern cryptocurrency market dynamics.

比特币可以复制2017年的欣快抛物线集会吗？这是可能的，但是这个周期可能会雕刻出独特的路径，将历史模式与现代加密货币市场动态融为一体。

We may be approaching a third major peak within this cycle—a first in Bitcoin’s history. According to the analysis, this might not trigger a full Bitcoin supercycle melt-up, but key metrics suggest BTC is far from topping.

在这个周期内，我们可能会接近第三个主要峰，这是比特币历史上的第一个。根据分析，这可能不会触发完整的比特币超级循环融化，但是关键指标表明BTC远非替代品。

With new all-time highs in sight, the macroeconomic environment is changing rapidly, and optimism among crypto traders is returning. As the dust settles on 2024’s dramatic market events, we’re left with several key takeaways.

随着新的历史最高水平，宏观经济环境正在迅速变化，加密货币交易员的乐观情绪正在返回。随着尘埃落定在2024年的戏剧性市场活动中，我们还有几个关键的收获。

Despite the recent price declines, the long-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish. With new all-time highs in sight, the macroeconomic environment is changing rapidly, and optimism among crypto traders is returning.

尽管价格最近下降，但比特币的长期趋势仍然是看好的。随着新的历史最高水平，宏观经济环境正在迅速变化，加密货币交易员的乐观情绪正在返回。

As the dust settles on 2024’s dramatic market events, we’re left with several key takeaways. Despite the recent price declines, the long-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish.

随着尘埃落定在2024年的戏剧性市场活动中，我们还有几个关键的收获。尽管价格最近下降，但比特币的长期趋势仍然是看好的。

The correlation between Bitcoin and the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly apparent. The shift in monetary policy and the potential for a weaker dollar could spell good news for crypto investors in the coming months and years.

比特币与宏观经济环境之间的相关性变得越来越明显。在未来几个月和几年中，货币政策的转变和美元薄弱的潜力可能会为加密投资者带来好消息。

The crypto market is also maturing, with more institutional involvement and the launch of crucial products like the Bitcoin ETF.

加密货币市场也在成熟，机构的参与程度更高，并且推出了比特币ETF等关键产品。

Together, these factors suggest that the stage is set for sustained Bitcoin price expansion.

这些因素一起表明，阶段是为了持续的比特币价格上涨。

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

有关更深入的研究，技术指标，实时市场警报以及与不断增长的分析师社区的访问，请访问Bitcoin Magazine Pro。