Bitcoin Is Surging in 2025, Igniting Speculation About a Historic Bitcoin Supercycle

After a volatile start to the year, renewed momentum, recovering sentiment, and bullish metrics have analysts asking: Are we on the cusp of a 2017 Bitcoin bull run repeat?

Bitcoin (BTC) price is surging in 2025, leading to speculation about a historic Bitcoin supercycle. After a volatile start to the year, renewed momentum, recovering sentiment, and bullish metrics have analysts discussing: Are we on the cusp of a 2017 Bitcoin bull run repeat? This Bitcoin price analysis explores cycle comparisons, investor behavior, and long-term holder trends to assess the likelihood of an explosive phase in this cryptocurrency market cycle.

How the 2025 Bitcoin Cycle Compares to Past Bull Runs

According to the BTC Growth Since Cycle Low chart by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, the cryptocurrency’s trajectory aligns closely with the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 cycles, despite macro challenges and drawdowns.

As we reach the ninth month of 2025, we’re approximately 900 days into the current cycle. Typically, Bitcoin market cycles peak around 1,100 days from their lows. This leaves several hundred days for potential explosive Bitcoin price growth. But do investor behaviors and market mechanics support a Bitcoin supercycle 2025?

Bitcoin Investor Behavior: Echoes of the 2017 Bull Run

To gauge cryptocurrency investor psychology, the 2-Year Rolling MVRV-Z Score provides critical insights. This advanced metric, available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, accounts for lost coins, illiquid supply, growing ETF and institutional holdings, and shifting long-term Bitcoin holder behaviors.

Last year, when Bitcoin price hit ~$73,000, the MVRV-Z Score reached 3.39—a high but not unprecedented level. From that peak, we saw retracements, which can be attributed to mid-cycle consolidations, similar to those observed in 2017.

During the 2017 cycle, we saw multiple high-score peaks before the final parabolic Bitcoin rally. Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, a cross-cycle analysis reveals a striking 91.5% behavioral correlation with the 2013 double-peak cycle.

With two major tops already—one pre-halving ($74k) and one post-halving ($100k+ ), we could be setting up for a third all-time high. If realized, this would mark Bitcoin’s first-ever triple-peak bull cycle, a potential hallmark of a Bitcoin supercycle.

The 2017 cycle shows a 58.6% behavioral correlation, while 2021’s investor behavior is less similar, though its Bitcoin price action correlation is at ~75%.

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Signal Strong Confidence

The 1+ Year HODL Wave, another indicator available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, shows the percentage of BTC unmoved for a year or more continues to rise, even as prices climb—a rare trend in bull markets that reflects strong long-term holder conviction.

As seen in the past, sharp rises in the HODL wave’s rate of change signal major bottoms, while sharp declines mark tops. Currently, the metric is at a neutral inflection point, far from peak distribution, indicating long-term Bitcoin investors expect significantly higher prices.

Bitcoin Supercycle or More Consolidation?

Could Bitcoin be replicating 2017’s euphoric parabolic rally? It’s possible, but this cycle may carve a unique path, blending historical patterns with modern cryptocurrency market dynamics.

We may be approaching a third major peak within this cycle—a first in Bitcoin’s history. According to the analysis, this might not trigger a full Bitcoin supercycle melt-up, but key metrics suggest BTC is far from topping.

With new all-time highs in sight, the macroeconomic environment is changing rapidly, and optimism among crypto traders is returning. As the dust settles on 2024’s dramatic market events, we’re left with several key takeaways.

Despite the recent price declines, the long-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish. With new all-time highs in sight, the macroeconomic environment is changing rapidly, and optimism among crypto traders is returning.

As the dust settles on 2024’s dramatic market events, we’re left with several key takeaways. Despite the recent price declines, the long-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly apparent. The shift in monetary policy and the potential for a weaker dollar could spell good news for crypto investors in the coming months and years.

The crypto market is also maturing, with more institutional involvement and the launch of crucial products like the Bitcoin ETF.

Together, these factors suggest that the stage is set for sustained Bitcoin price expansion.

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit Bitcoin Magazine Pro.