比特幣的航行超過103,000美元，但這個看似令人眼花tigure的數字可能只是一個熱身

在幕後，結構性不平衡正在設置為：供應在陽光下像雪一樣融化，而機構需求卻飆升

May 2025. Bitcoin calmly sails past the 103,000 dollar mark. A seemingly dizzying figure, yet one that may be just a warm-up. For behind the scenes, a structural imbalance is setting in: supply is melting like snow in the sun, while institutional demand is skyrocketing.

2025年5月。比特幣平靜地航行了103,000美元的成績。一個看似令人頭暈的人物，但可能只是熱身的人。對於幕後，結構性不平衡正在設置：供應在陽光下像雪一樣融化，而機構需求卻飆升。

Some are already talking about a point of no return. Others, like Bitwise or Strategy, are betting on a price explosion — up to 200,000 dollars before the end of next year. Myth or inevitable mechanism? What is certain is that the race is on, and the stakes are colossal.

有些人已經在談論沒有回報的點。其他人，例如位或策略，都在押注價格爆炸 - 明年年底之前最高可達200​​,000美元。神話還是不可避免的機制？可以肯定的是，比賽正在進行，賭注是巨大的。

The relentless arithmetic of an unbalanced market

不平衡市場的無情算術

At first glance, the market seems stable. But beneath the surface, a silent supply shock is tipping the ecosystem. Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, does not mince words: “The equation is simple: there isn’t enough bitcoin for everyone.”

乍一看，市場似乎穩定。但是在表面下，無聲的供應衝擊正在傾斜生態系統。 Bitwise的CIO Matthew Hougan並沒有刺傷：“方程式很簡單：每個人都沒有足夠的比特幣。”

And he has the numbers to back up his claims. In 2025, the annual production of BTC is capped at 165,000 units. Yet institutional players — ETFs at the forefront — have already absorbed far more than that amount. In the United States alone, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs exceed 6 billion dollars and continue to grow.

他有數字來支持他的主張。 2025年，BTC的年生產限制為165,000台。然而，機構參與者 - ETF處於最前沿 - 已經吸收了遠遠超過這一數量。僅在美國，進入比特幣ETF的流入就超過了60億美元，並繼續增長。

Meanwhile, miners’ reserves are declining, and sales are increasingly rare. Liquidity is drying up, slowly but surely.

同時，礦工的儲量正在下降，銷售越來越罕見。流動性正在緩慢但肯定。

Result? Bitcoin remains stuck around $100,000, not for lack of interest, but because the market is digesting this new reality. And according to Hougan, once this consolidation is complete, the next target will mechanically be $200,000. Not in ten years. As soon as 2025.

結果？比特幣仍然停留在100,000美元左右，不是因為缺乏興趣，而是因為市場正在消化這一新現實。據Hougan稱，一旦完成了整合，下一個目標將機械地為20萬美元。不在十年之內。 2025年。

Strategy: the whale that redefines the rules of the game

策略：重新定義遊戲規則的鯨魚

But that’s not all. Behind this supply shock hides a key player, almost invisible to the general public: Strategy. Under Michael Saylor’s leadership, the company is frenetically accumulating BTC, to the point of currently holding over 568,000 bitcoins. That’s more than 2.7% of the maximum supply, and it’s not over yet.

但這不是全部。在這種供應衝擊的背後，它隱藏了一個關鍵參與者，幾乎是公眾看不見的：戰略。在邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的領導下，該公司在瘋狂地積累了BTC，目前持有超過568,000比特幣的地步。這超過了最大供應量的2.7％以上，還沒有結束。

Over the past six months, Strategy has acquired nearly 380,000 BTC, more than double the network’s annual production. By doing so, it alone is causing an effect equivalent to a halving, creating an artificial shortage that fuels the bullish momentum.

在過去的六個月中，戰略已經收購了近380,000個BTC，是網絡年度生產的兩倍以上。通過這樣做，它僅會導致相當於減半的效果，從而造成人造的短缺，從而助長看漲的勢頭。

Analysts are certain: if this pace continues, Strategy could soon control the bitcoin lending markets. Its influence could be such that it indirectly sets the cost of capital in bitcoin. A first in modern monetary history. Bitcoin would then no longer be a decentralized currency in the strict sense, but an asset with gravity orbiting around a new center: the first BTC superpower.

分析師可以肯定：如果這種速度繼續下去，策略可以很快控制比特幣貸款市場。它的影響可能使其間接設定比特幣的資本成本。現代貨幣歷史上的第一個。從嚴格的意義上講，比特幣將不再是分散的貨幣，而是重力繞過新中心的資產：第一個BTC超級大國。

The end of cycles for bitcoin? Welcome to the era of institutional hyper-liquidity

比特幣週期的結束？歡迎來到機構過度流動性的時代

Forget the old four-year cycles, marked by dizzying rallies followed by brutal crashes. This model may belong to the past. According to Hougan, the massive presence of institutional players and financial products backed by BTC has transformed the very nature of the market.

忘記了舊的四年周期，以令人眼花comm亂的集會為標誌，隨後發生了殘酷的撞車事故。這個模型可能屬於過去。據霍根說，由BTC支持的機構參與者和金融產品的大量存在改變了市場的本質。

The old rules — post-halving bull runs, -80% corrections, stagnation — no longer apply. The arrival of continuous liquidity, long-term retention strategies, and professional management disrupt patterns. Bitcoin is becoming a global reserve asset, no longer just a speculative product.

舊規則 - 備鐘後公牛運行，-80％的校正，停滯 - 不再適用。連續流動性，長期保留策略和專業管理的到來破壞了模式。比特幣正在成為全球儲備資產，不再只是投機性產品。

Add to that an unstable macroeconomic context, negative real interest rates, fiat currencies under pressure, and the picture becomes clear: bitcoin is evolving into a digital monetary standard, rare, solid, incorruptible.

此外，不穩定的宏觀經濟環境，負面利率，壓力下的法定貨幣以及圖片變得清晰：比特幣正在發展為數字貨幣標準，稀有，固體，固定，不腐敗。

Adam Back even talks about a BTC at 1 million dollars. An extreme prediction? Maybe. But in this new paradigm, fundamentals — not speculation — lead the dance. In this setup, the 200,000 dollars are not a marketing promise — they are the logical extension of a systemic imbalance.

亞當甚至以100萬美元的價格談論了BTC。極端預測？或許。但是在這個新的範式中，基本面而不是猜測 - 帶領舞蹈。在此設置中，200,000美元不是營銷承諾 - 它們是系統性不平衡的邏輯擴展。