比特币的航行超过103,000美元，但这个看似令人眼花tigure的数字可能只是一个热身

在幕后，结构性不平衡正在设置为：供应在阳光下像雪一样融化，而机构需求却飙升

May 2025. Bitcoin calmly sails past the 103,000 dollar mark. A seemingly dizzying figure, yet one that may be just a warm-up. For behind the scenes, a structural imbalance is setting in: supply is melting like snow in the sun, while institutional demand is skyrocketing.

2025年5月。比特币平静地航行了103,000美元的成绩。一个看似令人头晕的人物，但可能只是热身的人。对于幕后，结构性不平衡正在设置：供应在阳光下像雪一样融化，而机构需求却飙升。

Some are already talking about a point of no return. Others, like Bitwise or Strategy, are betting on a price explosion — up to 200,000 dollars before the end of next year. Myth or inevitable mechanism? What is certain is that the race is on, and the stakes are colossal.

有些人已经在谈论没有回报的点。其他人，例如位或策略，都在押注价格爆炸 - 明年年底之前最高可达200​​,000美元。神话还是不可避免的机制？可以肯定的是，比赛正在进行，赌注是巨大的。

The relentless arithmetic of an unbalanced market

不平衡市场的无情算术

At first glance, the market seems stable. But beneath the surface, a silent supply shock is tipping the ecosystem. Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, does not mince words: “The equation is simple: there isn’t enough bitcoin for everyone.”

乍一看，市场似乎稳定。但是在表面下，无声的供应冲击正在倾斜生态系统。 Bitwise的CIO Matthew Hougan并没有刺伤：“方程式很简单：每个人都没有足够的比特币。”

And he has the numbers to back up his claims. In 2025, the annual production of BTC is capped at 165,000 units. Yet institutional players — ETFs at the forefront — have already absorbed far more than that amount. In the United States alone, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs exceed 6 billion dollars and continue to grow.

他有数字来支持他的主张。 2025年，BTC的年生产限制为165,000台。然而，机构参与者 - ETF处于最前沿 - 已经吸收了远远超过这一数量。仅在美国，进入比特币ETF的流入就超过了60亿美元，并继续增长。

Meanwhile, miners’ reserves are declining, and sales are increasingly rare. Liquidity is drying up, slowly but surely.

同时，矿工的储量正在下降，销售越来越罕见。流动性正在缓慢但肯定。

Result? Bitcoin remains stuck around $100,000, not for lack of interest, but because the market is digesting this new reality. And according to Hougan, once this consolidation is complete, the next target will mechanically be $200,000. Not in ten years. As soon as 2025.

结果？比特币仍然停留在100,000美元左右，不是因为缺乏兴趣，而是因为市场正在消化这一新现实。据Hougan称，一旦完成了整合，下一个目标将机械地为20万美元。不在十年之内。 2025年。

Strategy: the whale that redefines the rules of the game

策略：重新定义游戏规则的鲸鱼

But that’s not all. Behind this supply shock hides a key player, almost invisible to the general public: Strategy. Under Michael Saylor’s leadership, the company is frenetically accumulating BTC, to the point of currently holding over 568,000 bitcoins. That’s more than 2.7% of the maximum supply, and it’s not over yet.

但这不是全部。在这种供应冲击的背后，它隐藏了一个关键参与者，几乎是公众看不见的：战略。在迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的领导下，该公司在疯狂地积累了BTC，目前持有超过568,000比特币的地步。这超过了最大供应量的2.7％以上，还没有结束。

Over the past six months, Strategy has acquired nearly 380,000 BTC, more than double the network’s annual production. By doing so, it alone is causing an effect equivalent to a halving, creating an artificial shortage that fuels the bullish momentum.

在过去的六个月中，战略已经收购了近380,000个BTC，是网络年度生产的两倍以上。通过这样做，它仅会导致相当于减半的效果，从而造成人造的短缺，从而助长看涨的势头。

Analysts are certain: if this pace continues, Strategy could soon control the bitcoin lending markets. Its influence could be such that it indirectly sets the cost of capital in bitcoin. A first in modern monetary history. Bitcoin would then no longer be a decentralized currency in the strict sense, but an asset with gravity orbiting around a new center: the first BTC superpower.

分析师可以肯定：如果这种速度继续下去，策略可以很快控制比特币贷款市场。它的影响可能使其间接设定比特币的资本成本。现代货币历史上的第一个。从严格的意义上讲，比特币将不再是分散的货币，而是重力绕过新中心的资产：第一个BTC超级大国。

The end of cycles for bitcoin? Welcome to the era of institutional hyper-liquidity

比特币周期的结束？欢迎来到机构过度流动性的时代

Forget the old four-year cycles, marked by dizzying rallies followed by brutal crashes. This model may belong to the past. According to Hougan, the massive presence of institutional players and financial products backed by BTC has transformed the very nature of the market.

忘记了旧的四年周期，以令人眼花comm乱的集会为标志，随后发生了残酷的撞车事故。这个模型可能属于过去。据霍根说，由BTC支持的机构参与者和金融产品的大量存在改变了市场的本质。

The old rules — post-halving bull runs, -80% corrections, stagnation — no longer apply. The arrival of continuous liquidity, long-term retention strategies, and professional management disrupt patterns. Bitcoin is becoming a global reserve asset, no longer just a speculative product.

旧规则 - 备钟后公牛运行，-80％的校正，停滞 - 不再适用。连续流动性，长期保留策略和专业管理的到来破坏了模式。比特币正在成为全球储备资产，不再只是投机性产品。

Add to that an unstable macroeconomic context, negative real interest rates, fiat currencies under pressure, and the picture becomes clear: bitcoin is evolving into a digital monetary standard, rare, solid, incorruptible.

再加上不稳定的宏观经济环境，负面利率，压力下的法定货币以及图片变得清晰：比特币正在变成数字货币标准，稀有，固体，坚固，不可腐败。

Adam Back even talks about a BTC at 1 million dollars. An extreme prediction? Maybe. But in this new paradigm, fundamentals — not speculation — lead the dance. In this setup, the 200,000 dollars are not a marketing promise — they are the logical extension of a systemic imbalance.

亚当甚至以100万美元的价格谈论了BTC。极端预测？或许。但是在这个新的范式中，基本面而不是猜测 - 带领舞蹈。在此设置中，200,000美元不是营销承诺 - 它们是系统性不平衡的逻辑扩展。