耗資20萬億美元的比特幣市值機會

目前，比特幣（BTC 0.95％）的市值約為2萬億美元。這大致符合巨大的七隻科技股的估值

Right now, Bitcoin (BTC 0.95%) has a market cap of about $2 trillion. That's roughly in line with the valuations of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which have valuations ranging from $1.5 trillion to just over $3 trillion.

目前，比特幣（BTC 0.95％）的市值約為2萬億美元。這大致符合巨大的七種科技股的估值，估值從1.5萬億美元到剛好超過3萬億美元。

But there's an opportunity for Bitcoin to go much higher. In fact, a $20 trillion market cap might be possible by 2030. If investors begin to view Bitcoin as more than just an ultra-risky tech asset, it could unlock trillions of dollars in market cap. Let's take a closer look.

但是，比特幣有機會更高。實際上，到2030年，可能會有20萬億美元的市值。如果投資者開始將比特幣視為超級風險的技術資產，則可以在市值上釋放數万億美元。讓我們仔細看一下。

What is Bitcoin, really?

什麼是比特幣？

In 2009, Bitcoin launched as a digital currency, built using blockchain technology and powered by an internal algorithm. Although Bitcoin differed from traditional fiat currencies (such as the U.S. dollar or the Japanese yen) in certain important ways, it was primarily designed to be a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

2009年，比特幣以一種數字貨幣推出，該數字貨幣是使用區塊鏈技術建造的，並由內部算法供電。儘管比特幣與傳統的法定貨幣（例如美元或日元）不同，但它主要設計為對等電子現金系統。

As a result, one obvious use case for Bitcoin was as a medium of exchange. In other words, you were supposed to use Bitcoin to pay for things. But, alas, that use case has never fully materialized. When was the last time you used Bitcoin to pay for anything?

結果，一個明顯的比特幣用例是一種交換媒介。換句話說，您應該使用比特幣來支付東西。但是，可惜的是，這種用例從未完全實現。您上次使用比特幣付款的時間是什麼時候？

That's why Bitcoin never went mainstream in its early years. Many people who used Bitcoin for payments were people engaged in dubious market dealings that required anonymity. That's the primary reason big institutional investors and Wall Street banks wouldn't touch Bitcoin with a 10-foot pole: There was a certain whiff of impropriety around it, and nobody could figure out what to do with it.

這就是為什麼比特幣早年從未成為主流的原因。許多使用比特幣進行付款的人是從事需要匿名的可疑市場交易的人。這是大機構投資者和華爾街銀行不會用10英尺桿碰比特幣的主要原因：周圍有一定的不當行為，沒有人能弄清楚該怎麼辦。

But, over time, Bitcoin produced such spectacular returns, year in and year out (with a few years of catastrophic performance mixed in along the way), that many investors began to view it as a hyper-volatile, hyper-speculative tech asset with astonishing upside potential.

但是，隨著時間的流逝，比特幣在一年中和一年中產生瞭如此壯觀的回報（途中有幾年的災難性表現），許多投資者開始將其視為具有驚人的上升潛力的超膽怯的，超強的技術資產。

Forward-looking investors and entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley bought into this idea, and began accumulating Bitcoin at absurdly low valuations. For them, Bitcoin appeared to be a new type of tech investment opportunity, and they attempted to value it as such.

矽谷的前瞻性投資者和企業家購買了這個想法，並開始以荒謬的低估比特幣。對他們來說，比特幣似乎是一種新型的技術投資機會，他們試圖這樣珍視它。

Is Bitcoin now digital gold?

比特幣現在是數字黃金嗎？

Now, in 2025, Bitcoin has transformed yet again, into a unique asset that some are now calling digital gold. This final transformation could be the key to unlocking its true long-term value.

現在，在2025年，比特幣再次改造成一個獨特的資產，有些人現在稱數字黃金。這種最終轉型可能是釋放其真實長期價值的關鍵。

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital (and a former White House Communications Director during the first Trump presidency), briefly described this evolution of Bitcoin. He put it very succinctly: If Bitcoin is just a hyper-risky tech asset, then its true valuation is in the $1 trillion to $3 trillion range. That would put it on par with the Magnificent Seven tech stocks.

在最近接受彭博社（Bloomberg）的採訪時，Skybridge Capital的創始人Anthony Scaramucci（在特朗普第一任總統期間是白宮通訊總監）的創始人，簡要描述了比特幣的這種演變。他簡潔地說：如果比特幣只是一個高風險的技術資產，那麼其真正的估值在1萬億美元至3萬億美元的範圍內。這將使它與宏偉的七隻科技股相提並論。

But if Bitcoin truly is digital gold, Scaramucci says, then we need to think bigger. The total market cap of gold is roughly $22 trillion, so that logically becomes the new target for valuing Bitcoin. That's roughly 10 times the current valuation of Bitcoin, so we're talking about a future price of about $1 million, based on its current price of $104,000.

但是，如果比特幣確實是數字黃金，那麼我們需要思考更大。黃金的總市值約為22萬億美元，因此從邏輯上講成為評估比特幣的新目標。這大約是當前比特幣估值的10倍，因此，我們談論的是未來的價格約為100萬美元，其目前的價格為104,000美元。

That might sound like a pie-in-the-sky valuation, except that a surprising number of big-name institutional investors are also tossing around $1 million price targets for Bitcoin. If you dig deep into their valuation models, they are also looking for ways to take into account Bitcoin's transformation into digital gold.

這聽起來可能像是一個天空般的估值，除了令人驚訝的大型機構投資者還將比特幣的價格目標付出了約100萬美元的目標。如果您深入研究他們的估值模型，他們還在尋找考慮比特幣轉換為數字黃金的方法。

Two important Bitcoin metrics to watch

觀看兩個重要的比特幣指標

If this digital-gold narrative really takes off, we should expect to see several key changes when it comes to Bitcoin. First of all, we should see a decrease in volatility. If people are no longer speculating in Bitcoin, but rather holding it for the long term, then volatility should decline over time.

如果這種數字元素的敘述真正起步，我們應該期望在比特幣方面看到一些關鍵的變化。首先，我們應該看到波動率下降。如果人們不再猜測比特幣，而是長期持有它，那麼隨著時間的流逝，波動率應該下降。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Second, we should see an uptick in the number of Bitcoin owners worldwide. The way to measure that, says Scaramucci, is by looking at the number of active Bitcoin wallets. He's looking for Bitcoin to hit 1 billion users worldwide. At that point, nearly 1-in-8 people around the globe will hold at least a tiny sliver of Bitcoin.

其次，我們應該看到全球比特幣所有者的數量上升。 Scaramucci說，衡量這一方法的方法是查看活躍的比特幣錢包的數量。他正在尋找比特幣以擊中全球10億用戶。那時，全球近8人將至少擁有一小塊比特幣。

Based on data from Bitbo, a Bitcoin analytics platform, there are currently 200 million Bitcoin wallets worldwide, and about 100 million Bitcoin owners. (Just like some people have multiple bank accounts, some also have multiple Bitcoin wallets.) As a result, we should expect to see a nearly 10-fold increase in the number of Bitcoin users worldwide.

基於Bitbo的數據，Bitbo是一個比特幣分析平台，目前在全球範圍內有2億個比特幣錢包，約1億比特幣所有者。 （就像有些人有多個銀行帳戶一樣，有些也有多個比特幣錢包。）結果，我們應該期望全球比特幣用戶數量增加了近10倍。

Is the digital gold thesis correct?

數字黃金論文正確嗎？

In the future, I will keep my eye on these two metrics. I will be tracking changes in Bitcoin's volatility over time, and monitoring the number of active Bitcoin wallets. If the digital gold narrative is correct, we should

將來，我將關注這兩個指標。我將隨著時間的推移跟踪比特幣波動率的變化，並監視主動比特幣錢包的數量。如果數字黃金敘述是正確的，我們應該