比特幣對過去美國大選的反應以及今年的預期

美國總統大選通常被視為世界上最重要的經濟和地緣政治事件之一。畢竟，國家的經濟存在和作為強大軍事力量的地位意味著其內部政治決策將在全球範圍內產生影響。

The American Presidential election is a highly anticipated event, not just for the nation but also for the global economy and politics. After all, the U.S. is a great military force and has a significant economic presence, which means that its internal political decisions have an impact all across the world.

美國總統選舉不僅對國家而且對於全球經濟和政治來說都是備受期待的事件。畢竟，美國是一支強大的軍事力量，並且擁有重要的經濟存在，這意味著其內部政治決策對全世界都有影響力。

This influence certainly doesn’t shy away from the cryptocurrency market either. Digital assets are also heavily influenced by the American democracy. In fact, some of Bitcoin’s most significant movements during its lifetime have happened during or right after a U.S. election.

這種影響當然也不會迴避加密貨幣市場。數位資產也深受美國民主的影響。事實上，比特幣一生中一些最重大的變動發生在美國大選期間或之後。

As we head into the most crypto-influenced race to date, everyone is excited to see how BTC will react following November 5th. With that in mind, past Bitcoin post-election performance could show a glimpse of what to expect this year.

當我們進入迄今為止受加密貨幣影響最大的競賽時，每個人都很高興看到 BTC 在 11 月 5 日之後將如何反應。考慮到這一點，過去的比特幣在選舉後的表現可以讓我們對今年的預期有所了解。

2016 Election: Bitcoin Up 1,200%

2016 年大選：比特幣上漲 1,200%

Technically, the first U.S. election after Bitcoin’s debut happened in 2012. However, given that the currency was not as accessible as it is today, we will skip past this one. But just for context – BTC grew over 8,000% from Nov 2012 – Nov 2013.

從技術上講，比特幣首次亮相後的第一次美國大選發生在 2012 年。但僅供參考——從 2012 年 11 月到 2013 年 11 月，BTC 成長了 8,000% 以上。

The 2016 presidential election was marked as one of the most exciting and controversial campaigns to date. At the time, Hillary Clinton faced Donald Trump in a tight race – with the Republican eventually emerging as the winner.

2016 年總統大選被認為是迄今為止最令人興奮、最具爭議性的競選活動之一。當時，希拉蕊·柯林頓 (Hillary Clinton) 與唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 展開了一場激烈的角逐，共和黨最終成為勝利者。

Bitcoin reacted well following Donald Trump’s win. On November 5th, 2016 (election day), BTC traded around $740,00.

唐納德·特朗普獲勝後，比特幣反應良好。 2016 年 11 月 5 日（選舉日），BTC 交易價格約為 74 萬美元。

Only a year later, the world’s largest crypto saw exponential growth, reaching above $12,000 by November of 2017 – marking a growth of over 1,200% in value.

僅一年後，全球最大的加密貨幣就出現了指數級增長，到 2017 年 11 月達到 12,000 美元以上，標誌著價值增長超過 1,200%。

2020 Election: Bitcoin Up 192%

2020 年大選：比特幣上漲 192%

Four years later, Donald Trump was running for reelection against Barack Obama’s vice-president Joe Biden.

四年後，唐納德·川普與巴拉克·歐巴馬的副總統喬·拜登競選連任。

The Republican candidate would end up in the losing bracket this time. With Joe Biden emerging as the winner and becoming the 47th President of the United States.

這次共和黨候選人最終將落入敗局。喬·拜登成為勝利者並成為美國第 47 任總統。

In the 365-day period following the 2020 election, Bitcoin would go on to reach not one, but two new all-time highs. From November 2020 to November 2021 – the asset grew by 192% going from ~$20,000 to over $57,300.

在 2020 年大選後的 365 天內，比特幣將繼續創下歷史新高，而不是一個，而是兩個。從 2020 年 11 月到 2021 年 11 月，資產成長了 192%，從約 2 萬美元增加到超過 57,300 美元。

So, is it a Sure Thing That Bitcoin is Going Up?

那麼，比特幣上漲是必然的事嗎？

The fact that the world’s largest digital asset reacted positively to both Republican and Democrat victories in the past does not make it a sure thing that it will do the same in 2024.

全球最大的數位資產過去對共和黨和民主黨的勝利都做出了積極反應，但這並不意味著它在 2024 年也會做出同樣的反應。

Today, BTC is a lot more available and liquid – coexisting in a regulatory environment very different than what it was 4 years ago. In short, there are several factors that could make the market more volatile moving forward.

如今，比特幣的可用性和流動性都大大提高——共存於與 4 年前截然不同的監管環境中。簡而言之，有幾個因素可能導致市場未來更加波動。

Also, in this election, the majority of crypto voters appear to favor one candidate over the other. A recent FDU poll claims that among U.S. voters who own cryptocurrencies – Trump leads Harris by over 12 points.

此外，在這次選舉中，大多數加密貨幣選民似乎更喜歡一位候選人而不是另一位候選人。 FDU 最近的一項民調顯示，在擁有加密貨幣的美國選民中，川普領先哈里斯超過 12 個百分點。

So, while there are heavy indications that BTC could move upward following another Presidential race, there are no clear guarantees as is often the case in the crypto market.

因此，儘管有大量跡象表明比特幣可能會在另一場總統競選後上漲，但並沒有像加密貨幣市場中常見的情況那樣的明確保證。