How Bitcoin Reacted to Past US Elections and What to Expect This Year

The American Presidential election is often seen as one of the most important economic and geopolitical events in the world. After all, the nation's economic presence and status as a great military force means that its internal political decisions have ramifications all across the globe.

The American Presidential election is a highly anticipated event, not just for the nation but also for the global economy and politics. After all, the U.S. is a great military force and has a significant economic presence, which means that its internal political decisions have an impact all across the world.

This influence certainly doesn’t shy away from the cryptocurrency market either. Digital assets are also heavily influenced by the American democracy. In fact, some of Bitcoin’s most significant movements during its lifetime have happened during or right after a U.S. election.

As we head into the most crypto-influenced race to date, everyone is excited to see how BTC will react following November 5th. With that in mind, past Bitcoin post-election performance could show a glimpse of what to expect this year.

2016 Election: Bitcoin Up 1,200%

Technically, the first U.S. election after Bitcoin’s debut happened in 2012. However, given that the currency was not as accessible as it is today, we will skip past this one. But just for context – BTC grew over 8,000% from Nov 2012 – Nov 2013.

The 2016 presidential election was marked as one of the most exciting and controversial campaigns to date. At the time, Hillary Clinton faced Donald Trump in a tight race – with the Republican eventually emerging as the winner.

Bitcoin reacted well following Donald Trump’s win. On November 5th, 2016 (election day), BTC traded around $740,00.

Only a year later, the world’s largest crypto saw exponential growth, reaching above $12,000 by November of 2017 – marking a growth of over 1,200% in value.

2020 Election: Bitcoin Up 192%

Four years later, Donald Trump was running for reelection against Barack Obama’s vice-president Joe Biden.

The Republican candidate would end up in the losing bracket this time. With Joe Biden emerging as the winner and becoming the 47th President of the United States.

In the 365-day period following the 2020 election, Bitcoin would go on to reach not one, but two new all-time highs. From November 2020 to November 2021 – the asset grew by 192% going from ~$20,000 to over $57,300.

So, is it a Sure Thing That Bitcoin is Going Up?

The fact that the world’s largest digital asset reacted positively to both Republican and Democrat victories in the past does not make it a sure thing that it will do the same in 2024.

Today, BTC is a lot more available and liquid – coexisting in a regulatory environment very different than what it was 4 years ago. In short, there are several factors that could make the market more volatile moving forward.

Also, in this election, the majority of crypto voters appear to favor one candidate over the other. A recent FDU poll claims that among U.S. voters who own cryptocurrencies – Trump leads Harris by over 12 points.

So, while there are heavy indications that BTC could move upward following another Presidential race, there are no clear guarantees as is often the case in the crypto market.