比特币对过去美国大选的反应以及今年的预期

美国总统选举通常被视为世界上最重要的经济和地缘政治事件之一。毕竟，国家的经济存在和作为强大军事力量的地位意味着其内部政治决策会在全球范围内产生影响。

The American Presidential election is a highly anticipated event, not just for the nation but also for the global economy and politics. After all, the U.S. is a great military force and has a significant economic presence, which means that its internal political decisions have an impact all across the world.

美国总统选举不仅对于国家而且对于全球经济和政治来说都是备受期待的事件。毕竟，美国是一支强大的军事力量，并且拥有重要的经济存在，这意味着其内部政治决策对全世界都有影响。

This influence certainly doesn’t shy away from the cryptocurrency market either. Digital assets are also heavily influenced by the American democracy. In fact, some of Bitcoin’s most significant movements during its lifetime have happened during or right after a U.S. election.

这种影响当然也不会回避加密货币市场。数字资产也深受美国民主的影响。事实上，比特币一生中一些最重大的变动发生在美国大选期间或之后。

As we head into the most crypto-influenced race to date, everyone is excited to see how BTC will react following November 5th. With that in mind, past Bitcoin post-election performance could show a glimpse of what to expect this year.

当我们进入迄今为止受加密货币影响最大的竞赛时，每个人都很高兴看到 BTC 在 11 月 5 日之后将如何反应。考虑到这一点，过去的比特币在选举后的表现可以让我们对今年的预期有所了解。

2016 Election: Bitcoin Up 1,200%

2016 年大选：比特币上涨 1,200%

Technically, the first U.S. election after Bitcoin’s debut happened in 2012. However, given that the currency was not as accessible as it is today, we will skip past this one. But just for context – BTC grew over 8,000% from Nov 2012 – Nov 2013.

从技术上讲，比特币首次亮相后的第一次美国大选发生在 2012 年。然而，考虑到该货币不像今天那么容易获得，我们将跳过这一次。但仅供参考——从 2012 年 11 月到 2013 年 11 月，BTC 增长了 8,000% 以上。

The 2016 presidential election was marked as one of the most exciting and controversial campaigns to date. At the time, Hillary Clinton faced Donald Trump in a tight race – with the Republican eventually emerging as the winner.

2016 年总统选举被认为是迄今为止最激动人心、最具争议性的竞选活动之一。当时，希拉里·克林顿 (Hillary Clinton) 与唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 展开了一场激烈的角逐，共和党最终成为胜利者。

Bitcoin reacted well following Donald Trump’s win. On November 5th, 2016 (election day), BTC traded around $740,00.

唐纳德·特朗普获胜后，比特币反应良好。 2016 年 11 月 5 日（选举日），BTC 交易价格约为 740,000 美元。

Only a year later, the world’s largest crypto saw exponential growth, reaching above $12,000 by November of 2017 – marking a growth of over 1,200% in value.

仅一年后，全球最大的加密货币就出现了指数级增长，到 2017 年 11 月达到 12,000 美元以上，标志着价值增长超过 1,200%。

2020 Election: Bitcoin Up 192%

2020 年大选：比特币上涨 192%

Four years later, Donald Trump was running for reelection against Barack Obama’s vice-president Joe Biden.

四年后，唐纳德·特朗普与巴拉克·奥巴马的副总统乔·拜登竞选连任。

The Republican candidate would end up in the losing bracket this time. With Joe Biden emerging as the winner and becoming the 47th President of the United States.

这次共和党候选人最终将落​​入败局。乔·拜登成为胜利者并成为美国第 47 任总统。

In the 365-day period following the 2020 election, Bitcoin would go on to reach not one, but two new all-time highs. From November 2020 to November 2021 – the asset grew by 192% going from ~$20,000 to over $57,300.

在 2020 年大选后的 365 天内，比特币将继续创下历史新高，而不是一个，而是两个。从 2020 年 11 月到 2021 年 11 月，资产增长了 192%，从约 20,000 美元增至超过 57,300 美元。

So, is it a Sure Thing That Bitcoin is Going Up?

那么，比特币上涨是必然的事情吗？

The fact that the world’s largest digital asset reacted positively to both Republican and Democrat victories in the past does not make it a sure thing that it will do the same in 2024.

全球最大的数字资产过去对共和党和民主党的胜利都做出了积极反应，但这并不意味着它在 2024 年也会做出同样的反应。

Today, BTC is a lot more available and liquid – coexisting in a regulatory environment very different than what it was 4 years ago. In short, there are several factors that could make the market more volatile moving forward.

如今，比特币的可用性和流动性都大大提高——共存于与 4 年前截然不同的监管环境中。简而言之，有几个因素可能会导致市场未来更加波动。

Also, in this election, the majority of crypto voters appear to favor one candidate over the other. A recent FDU poll claims that among U.S. voters who own cryptocurrencies – Trump leads Harris by over 12 points.

此外，在这次选举中，大多数加密货币选民似乎更喜欢一位候选人而不是另一位候选人。 FDU 最近的一项民意调查显示，在拥有加密货币的美国选民中，特朗普领先哈里斯超过 12 个百分点。

So, while there are heavy indications that BTC could move upward following another Presidential race, there are no clear guarantees as is often the case in the crypto market.

因此，尽管有大量迹象表明比特币可能会在另一场总统竞选后上涨，但并没有像加密货币市场中常见的情况那样的明确保证。