比特幣的迅速崛起也使最樂觀的投資者感到驚訝

比特幣的迅速上升甚至使最樂觀的投資者感到驚訝。曾經看起來像是一個不可能的里程碑 - bitcoin達到100,000美元 -

The rapid rise of Bitcoin has surprised even the most optimistic investors. What once seemed like an impossible milestone—Bitcoin hitting $100,000—became a reality in November 2024 when the cryptocurrency surpassed $99,000 following the U.S. elections. Today, both investors and skeptics are asking: Could Bitcoin actually reach $1 million? Let’s dive into what might propel Bitcoin toward this elusive goal and what obstacles could stand in its way.

比特幣的迅速上升甚至使最樂觀的投資者感到驚訝。曾經似乎是一個不可能的里程碑 - bitcoin達到了100,000美元 - 在2024年11月，當時加密貨幣在美國大選後超過99,000美元。今天，投資者和懷疑論者都在問：比特幣實際上可以達到100萬美元嗎？讓我們深入了解可能將比特幣驅動到這個難以捉摸的目標以及障礙可能阻礙其障礙的原因。

Bitcoin’s journey to its current heights has been marked by intense volatility. For much of 2023, the cryptocurrency traded below $25,000, leaving many questioning its future. But the landscape shifted dramatically in January 2024 when U.S. courts ordered the SEC to reconsider the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. This decision sparked a surge, pushing Bitcoin to $40,000, then $60,000, and finally hitting the $100,000 mark after the November elections.

比特幣到當前高度的旅程以強烈的波動為標誌。在2023年的大部分時間裡，加密貨幣的交易價格低於25,000美元，使許多人質疑其未來。但是，景觀在2024年1月在美國法院下令重新考慮現貨比特幣ETF的批准時發生了巨大變化。這一決定激發了激增，將比特幣提高到40,000美元，然後是60,000美元，最後在11月選舉後達到了100,000美元。

For Bitcoin to reach the $1 million mark, three key developments would likely need to align: widespread institutional adoption similar to gold (potentially adding $2 to $3 trillion to market capitalization), adoption by major corporations (adding $1 to $2 trillion), and increased retail investment in emerging markets. This combination could push Bitcoin’s market cap beyond $21 trillion, which is the threshold for a price of $1 million per Bitcoin (with 21 million Bitcoins in total).

為了使比特幣達到100萬美元大關，可能需要三個關鍵的發展：與黃金類似的機構採用（可能增加了2至3萬億美元的市值），主要公司的採用（增加了1至2美元），並增加了新興市場的零售投資。這種組合可能會將比特幣的市值推到21萬億美元以上，這是每個比特幣100萬美元的門檻（總比特幣總計2100萬）。

Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin’s value is not tied to corporate earnings or government backing. Instead, its price fluctuations are largely determined by supply mechanics and market sentiment. Scheduled events like Bitcoin “halvings,” which reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are issued every four years, decrease the supply. Combined with growing institutional interest, this scarcity has historically supported price increases.

與傳統資產不同，比特幣的價值與公司收入或政府支持無關。相反，其價格波動在很大程度上取決於供應機制和市場情緒。預定的事件如比特幣“ Healvings”，降低了每四年發出新比特幣的速度，從而減少了供應量。結合日益增長的機構興趣，這種稀缺性在歷史上支持了價格上漲。

Time to reach $50,000: 12 years

達到$ 50,000：12年的時間

Time to reach nearly $99,000: Three years

是時候達到近99,000美元：三年

Total number of Bitcoins in circulation (as of December 1, 2024): 19.79 million

流通中比特幣的總數（截至2024年12月1日）：1979萬

Total supply cap: 21 million

總供應上限：2100萬

Next halving date: 2028

下一個減半日期：2028

Current market dominance: Over 56% of the total cryptocurrency market

當前的市場優勢：超過56％的加密貨幣市場

However, market sentiment remains the primary driver of Bitcoin’s dramatic price fluctuations. Regulatory announcements, political changes, and broader economic conditions can trigger significant price shifts, making the road to $1 million highly unpredictable. Recently, Bitcoin’s rise has been fueled by expectations that a more Bitcoin-friendly SEC and presidential administration might help create a favorable environment for cryptocurrencies.

但是，市場情緒仍然是比特幣價格急劇波動的主要驅動力。監管公告，政治變化和更廣泛的經濟狀況可能會引發重大的價格變化，使這條路達到了100萬美元的高度不可預測。最近，預期比特幣友好的SEC和總統管理可能有助於為加密貨幣創造有利的環境，這使比特幣的崛起促進了人們的興起。

Key Events Impacting Bitcoin’s Price

影響比特幣價格的關鍵事件

The chart above reflects just a handful of events that have shaped Bitcoin’s trajectory. From security breaches and hacks to regulatory news and economic shifts, each factor contributes to the volatility. These events underscore how Bitcoin’s future remains tied to both external market forces and internal supply-demand dynamics.

上圖僅反映了幾種塑造比特幣軌蹟的事件。從安全漏洞和黑客到監管新聞和經濟轉變，每個因素都會導致波動。這些事件強調了比特幣的未來如何與外部市場力量和內部供需動態息息相關。

The rapid rise of Bitcoin has surprised even the most optimistic investors. What once seemed like an impossible milestone—Bitcoin hitting $100,000—became a reality in November 2024 when the cryptocurrency surpassed $99,000 following the U.S. elections. Today, both investors and skeptics are asking: Could Bitcoin actually reach $1 million? Let’s dive into what might propel Bitcoin toward this elusive goal and what obstacles could stand in its way.

比特幣的迅速上升甚至使最樂觀的投資者感到驚訝。曾經似乎是一個不可能的里程碑 - bitcoin達到了100,000美元 - 在2024年11月，當時加密貨幣在美國大選後超過99,000美元。今天，投資者和懷疑論者都在問：比特幣實際上可以達到100萬美元嗎？讓我們深入了解可能將比特幣驅動到這個難以捉摸的目標以及障礙可能阻礙其障礙的原因。

Bitcoin’s journey to its current heights has been marked by intense volatility. For much of 2023, the cryptocurrency traded below $25,000, leaving many questioning its future. But the landscape shifted dramatically in January 2024 when U.S. courts ordered the SEC to reconsider the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. This decision sparked a surge, pushing Bitcoin to $40,000, then $60,000, and finally hitting the $100,000 mark after the November elections.

比特幣到當前高度的旅程以強烈的波動為標誌。在2023年的大部分時間裡，加密貨幣的交易價格低於25,000美元，使許多人質疑其未來。但是，景觀在2024年1月在美國法院下令重新考慮現貨比特幣ETF的批准時發生了巨大變化。這一決定激發了激增，將比特幣提高到40,000美元，然後是60,000美元，最後在11月選舉後達到了100,000美元。

For Bitcoin to reach the $1 million mark, three key developments would likely need to align: widespread institutional adoption similar to gold (potentially adding $2 to $3 trillion to market capitalization), adoption by major corporations (adding $1 to $2 trillion), and increased retail investment in emerging markets. This combination could push Bitcoin’s market cap beyond $21 trillion, which is the threshold for a price of $1 million per Bitcoin (with 21 million Bitcoins in total).

為了使比特幣達到100萬美元大關，可能需要三個關鍵的發展：與黃金類似的機構採用（可能增加了2至3萬億美元的市值），主要公司的採用（增加了1至2美元），並增加了新興市場的零售投資。這種組合可能會將比特幣的市值推到21萬億美元以上，這是每個比特幣100萬美元的門檻（總比特幣總計2100萬）。

Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin’s value is not tied to corporate earnings or government backing. Instead, its price fluctuations are largely determined by supply mechanics and market sentiment. Scheduled events like Bitcoin “halvings,” which reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are issued every four years, decrease the supply. Combined with growing institutional interest, this scarcity has historically supported price increases.

與傳統資產不同，比特幣的價值與公司收入或政府支持無關。相反，其價格波動在很大程度上取決於供應機制和市場情緒。預定的事件如比特幣“ Healvings”，降低了每四年發出新比特幣的速度，從而減少了供應量。結合日益增長的機構興趣，這種稀缺性在歷史上支持了價格上漲。

However,

然而，