比特币的迅速崛起也使最乐观的投资者感到惊讶

比特币的迅速上升甚至使最乐观的投资者感到惊讶。曾经看起来像是一个不可能的里程碑 - bitcoin达到100,000美元 -

The rapid rise of Bitcoin has surprised even the most optimistic investors. What once seemed like an impossible milestone—Bitcoin hitting $100,000—became a reality in November 2024 when the cryptocurrency surpassed $99,000 following the U.S. elections. Today, both investors and skeptics are asking: Could Bitcoin actually reach $1 million? Let’s dive into what might propel Bitcoin toward this elusive goal and what obstacles could stand in its way.

比特币的迅速上升甚至使最乐观的投资者感到惊讶。曾经似乎是一个不可能的里程碑 - bitcoin达到了100,000美元 - 在2024年11月，当时加密货币在美国大选后超过99,000美元。今天，投资者和怀疑论者都在问：比特币实际上可以达到100万美元吗？让我们深入了解可能将比特币驱动到这个难以捉摸的目标以及障碍可能阻碍其障碍的原因。

Bitcoin’s journey to its current heights has been marked by intense volatility. For much of 2023, the cryptocurrency traded below $25,000, leaving many questioning its future. But the landscape shifted dramatically in January 2024 when U.S. courts ordered the SEC to reconsider the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. This decision sparked a surge, pushing Bitcoin to $40,000, then $60,000, and finally hitting the $100,000 mark after the November elections.

比特币到当前高度的旅程以强烈的波动为标志。在2023年的大部分时间里，加密货币的交易价格低于25,000美元，使许多人质疑其未来。但是，景观在2024年1月在美国法院下令重新考虑现货比特币ETF的批准时发生了巨大变化。这一决定激发了激增，将比特币提高到40,000美元，然后是60,000美元，最后在11月选举后达到了100,000美元。

For Bitcoin to reach the $1 million mark, three key developments would likely need to align: widespread institutional adoption similar to gold (potentially adding $2 to $3 trillion to market capitalization), adoption by major corporations (adding $1 to $2 trillion), and increased retail investment in emerging markets. This combination could push Bitcoin’s market cap beyond $21 trillion, which is the threshold for a price of $1 million per Bitcoin (with 21 million Bitcoins in total).

为了使比特币达到100万美元大关，可能需要三个关键的发展：与黄金类似的机构采用（可能增加了2至3万亿美元的市值），主要公司的采用（增加了1至2美元），并增加了新兴市场的零售投资。这种组合可能会将比特币的市值推到21万亿美元以上，这是每个比特币100万美元的门槛（总比特币总计2100万）。

Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin’s value is not tied to corporate earnings or government backing. Instead, its price fluctuations are largely determined by supply mechanics and market sentiment. Scheduled events like Bitcoin “halvings,” which reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are issued every four years, decrease the supply. Combined with growing institutional interest, this scarcity has historically supported price increases.

与传统资产不同，比特币的价值与公司收入或政府支持无关。相反，其价格波动在很大程度上取决于供应机制和市场情绪。预定的事件如比特币“ Healvings”，降低了每四年发出新比特币的速度，从而减少了供应量。结合日益增长的机构兴趣，这种稀缺性在历史上支持了价格上涨。

Time to reach $50,000: 12 years

达到$ 50,000：12年的时间

Time to reach nearly $99,000: Three years

是时候达到近99,000美元：三年

Total number of Bitcoins in circulation (as of December 1, 2024): 19.79 million

流通中比特币的总数（截至2024年12月1日）：1979万

Total supply cap: 21 million

总供应上限：2100万

Next halving date: 2028

下一个减半日期：2028

Current market dominance: Over 56% of the total cryptocurrency market

当前的市场优势：超过56％的加密货币市场

However, market sentiment remains the primary driver of Bitcoin’s dramatic price fluctuations. Regulatory announcements, political changes, and broader economic conditions can trigger significant price shifts, making the road to $1 million highly unpredictable. Recently, Bitcoin’s rise has been fueled by expectations that a more Bitcoin-friendly SEC and presidential administration might help create a favorable environment for cryptocurrencies.

但是，市场情绪仍然是比特币价格急剧波动的主要驱动力。监管公告，政治变化和更广泛的经济状况可能会引发重大的价格变化，使这条路达到了100万美元的高度不可预测。最近，预期比特币友好的SEC和总统管理可能有助于为加密货币创造有利的环境，这使比特币的崛起促进了人们的兴起。

Key Events Impacting Bitcoin’s Price

影响比特币价格的关键事件

The chart above reflects just a handful of events that have shaped Bitcoin’s trajectory. From security breaches and hacks to regulatory news and economic shifts, each factor contributes to the volatility. These events underscore how Bitcoin’s future remains tied to both external market forces and internal supply-demand dynamics.

上图仅反映了几种塑造比特币轨迹的事件。从安全漏洞和黑客到监管新闻和经济转变，每个因素都会导致波动。这些事件强调了比特币的未来如何与外部市场力量和内部供需动态息息相关。

The rapid rise of Bitcoin has surprised even the most optimistic investors. What once seemed like an impossible milestone—Bitcoin hitting $100,000—became a reality in November 2024 when the cryptocurrency surpassed $99,000 following the U.S. elections. Today, both investors and skeptics are asking: Could Bitcoin actually reach $1 million? Let’s dive into what might propel Bitcoin toward this elusive goal and what obstacles could stand in its way.

比特币的迅速上升甚至使最乐观的投资者感到惊讶。曾经似乎是一个不可能的里程碑 - bitcoin达到了100,000美元 - 在2024年11月，当时加密货币在美国大选后超过99,000美元。今天，投资者和怀疑论者都在问：比特币实际上可以达到100万美元吗？让我们深入了解可能将比特币驱动到这个难以捉摸的目标以及障碍可能阻碍其障碍的原因。

Bitcoin’s journey to its current heights has been marked by intense volatility. For much of 2023, the cryptocurrency traded below $25,000, leaving many questioning its future. But the landscape shifted dramatically in January 2024 when U.S. courts ordered the SEC to reconsider the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. This decision sparked a surge, pushing Bitcoin to $40,000, then $60,000, and finally hitting the $100,000 mark after the November elections.

比特币到当前高度的旅程以强烈的波动为标志。在2023年的大部分时间里，加密货币的交易价格低于25,000美元，使许多人质疑其未来。但是，景观在2024年1月在美国法院下令重新考虑现货比特币ETF的批准时发生了巨大变化。这一决定激发了激增，将比特币提高到40,000美元，然后是60,000美元，最后在11月选举后达到了100,000美元。

For Bitcoin to reach the $1 million mark, three key developments would likely need to align: widespread institutional adoption similar to gold (potentially adding $2 to $3 trillion to market capitalization), adoption by major corporations (adding $1 to $2 trillion), and increased retail investment in emerging markets. This combination could push Bitcoin’s market cap beyond $21 trillion, which is the threshold for a price of $1 million per Bitcoin (with 21 million Bitcoins in total).

为了使比特币达到100万美元大关，可能需要三个关键的发展：与黄金类似的机构采用（可能增加了2至3万亿美元的市值），主要公司的采用（增加了1至2美元），并增加了新兴市场的零售投资。这种组合可能会将比特币的市值推到21万亿美元以上，这是每个比特币100万美元的门槛（总比特币总计2100万）。

Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin’s value is not tied to corporate earnings or government backing. Instead, its price fluctuations are largely determined by supply mechanics and market sentiment. Scheduled events like Bitcoin “halvings,” which reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are issued every four years, decrease the supply. Combined with growing institutional interest, this scarcity has historically supported price increases.

与传统资产不同，比特币的价值与公司收入或政府支持无关。相反，其价格波动在很大程度上取决于供应机制和市场情绪。预定的事件如比特币“ Healvings”，降低了每四年发出新比特币的速度，从而减少了供应量。结合日益增长的机构兴趣，这种稀缺性在历史上支持了价格上涨。

However,

然而，