比特幣普埃爾一年多來首次跌入「被低估」區域

正如一位分析師在 CryptoQuant Quicktake 帖子中指出的那樣，BTC Puell 倍數最近有所下降。

A new analysis of on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has dipped into the “undervalued” territory for the first time in more than a year. This metric tracks the ratio between Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue and the 365-day moving average (MA) to gauge whether the coin is over or undervalued.

對鏈上數據的最新分析顯示，比特幣普埃爾倍數一年多來首次跌入「低估」區域。該指標追蹤比特幣礦工的每日收入與 365 天移動平均線 (MA) 之間的比率，以衡量該貨幣是否被高估或低估。

The analysis, published by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, reveals that the Puell Multiple has observed a steep plunge recently. This indicator is used to track the ratio between Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue and the 365-day moving average (MA) to assess whether the coin is over or undervalued.

一位分析師在 CryptoQuant Quicktake 貼文中發表的分析顯示，普埃爾倍數最近出現了急劇暴跌。該指標用於追蹤比特幣礦工的每日收入與 365 天移動平均線（MA）之間的比率，以評估比特幣是否被高估或低估。

Miners generate income through two channels: block rewards and transaction fees. While the former is compensation for adding a block to the network, the latter is a payment for each individual transaction included in the block.

礦工透過兩種管道產生收入：區塊獎勵和交易費用。前者是向網路添加區塊的補償，後者是對區塊中包含的每筆單獨交易的支付。

However, only the block reward is included in the miners’ revenue for the calculation of the Puell Multiple. Since the block rewards are nearly always constant in terms of BTC value, the only variable left is the USD value of the rewards.

然而，在計算 Puell Multiple 時，礦工的收入中只包含了區塊獎勵。由於區塊獎勵的 BTC 價值幾乎總是恆定的，因此剩下的唯一變數是獎勵的美元價值。

Hence, the indicator effectively measures revenue in USD, and a connection can be observed between the cryptocurrency’s price (which dictates the block reward's value) and the Puell Multiple.

因此，該指標有效地衡量了以美元為單位的收入，並且可以觀察到加密貨幣的價格（決定了區塊獎勵的價值）和 Puell Multiple 之間的連結。

When the metric is greater than 1, it indicates that miners have earned more than the average for the past year, and the price of the asset may be considered overvalued.

當該指標大於1時，表示礦工過去一年的收入高於平均水平，資產價格可能被認為被高估。

Conversely, if the indicator is lower than this threshold, it suggests that miners are currently making less than usual, and the coin may be considered undervalued.

相反，如果該指標低於此閾值，則表明礦工目前的收入低於平時，並且代幣可能被認為被低估。

Now, let's take a look at a chart that showcases the trend in the 7-day MA Bitcoin Puell Multiple over the past few years.

現在，讓我們來看看一張圖表，展示了過去幾年 7 日 MA 比特幣 Puell 倍數的趨勢。

7-day MA of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple, Source: CryptoQuant

比特幣 Puell 倍數的 7 天 MA，來源：CryptoQuant

The graph above shows that the 7-day MA of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple was at a higher range earlier as the rally toward the new all-time high took place.

上圖顯示，隨著比特幣普埃爾倍數反彈至歷史新高，其 7 天均線早期處於較高區間。

However, the indicator's value has observed a sharp drop recently. But during this same period, the cryptocurrency's price has been consolidating sideways.

然而，該指標的價值最近急劇下降。但在同一時期，加密貨幣的價格一直在橫盤整理。

So, if the price hasn't dropped, what could be impacting miner revenues? As mentioned earlier, the block rewards are nearly always constant, except during the Halving event, which occurs approximately every four years.

那麼，如果價格沒有下降，什麼可能會影響礦工的收入呢？如前所述，區塊獎勵幾乎總是恆定的，除了大約每四年發生一次的減半事件期間。

During this event, the asset's block rewards are permanently slashed in half. The latest Halving event occurred last month, which is why the Puell Multiple has registered such a steep drawdown.

在此事件期間，該資產的區塊獎勵將永久削減一半。最近的減半事件發生在上個月，這就是為什麼普埃爾倍數出現如此急劇下降的原因。

With this drop, the indicator's 7-day MA has fallen below 1. According to the quant, “Investors may interpret the fall in the Puell Multiple as a sign that the market is adjusting to a new phase of scarcity, potentially preparing for a rally.”

隨著此次下跌，該指標的7 日均線已跌破1。反彈做準備」。

Bitcoin's price is currently around $67,800, showing a 5% gain over the past week.

比特幣價格目前約為 67,800 美元，較過去一周上漲 5%。