比特币普埃尔一年多来首次跌入“被低估”区域

正如一位分析师在 CryptoQuant Quicktake 帖子中指出的那样，BTC Puell 倍数最近有所下降。

A new analysis of on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has dipped into the “undervalued” territory for the first time in more than a year. This metric tracks the ratio between Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue and the 365-day moving average (MA) to gauge whether the coin is over or undervalued.

对链上数据的最新分析显示，比特币普埃尔倍数一年多来首次跌入“低估”区域。该指标跟踪比特币矿工的每日收入与 365 天移动平均线 (MA) 之间的比率，以衡量该货币是否被高估或低估。

The analysis, published by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, reveals that the Puell Multiple has observed a steep plunge recently. This indicator is used to track the ratio between Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue and the 365-day moving average (MA) to assess whether the coin is over or undervalued.

一位分析师在 CryptoQuant Quicktake 帖子中发表的分析显示，普埃尔倍数最近出现了急剧暴跌。该指标用于跟踪比特币矿工的每日收入与 365 天移动平均线（MA）之间的比率，以评估比特币是否被高估或低估。

Miners generate income through two channels: block rewards and transaction fees. While the former is compensation for adding a block to the network, the latter is a payment for each individual transaction included in the block.

矿工通过两种渠道产生收入：区块奖励和交易费用。前者是向网络添加区块的补偿，后者是对区块中包含的每笔单独交易的支付。

However, only the block reward is included in the miners’ revenue for the calculation of the Puell Multiple. Since the block rewards are nearly always constant in terms of BTC value, the only variable left is the USD value of the rewards.

然而，在计算 Puell Multiple 时，矿工的收入中只包含了区块奖励。由于区块奖励的 BTC 价值几乎总是恒定的，因此剩下的唯一变量是奖励的美元价值。

Hence, the indicator effectively measures revenue in USD, and a connection can be observed between the cryptocurrency’s price (which dictates the block reward's value) and the Puell Multiple.

因此，该指标有效地衡量了以美元为单位的收入，并且可以观察到加密货币的价格（决定了区块奖励的价值）和 Puell Multiple 之间的联系。

When the metric is greater than 1, it indicates that miners have earned more than the average for the past year, and the price of the asset may be considered overvalued.

当该指标大于1时，表明矿工过去一年的收入高于平均水平，资产价格可能被认为被高估。

Conversely, if the indicator is lower than this threshold, it suggests that miners are currently making less than usual, and the coin may be considered undervalued.

相反，如果该指标低于此阈值，则表明矿工目前的收入低于平时，并且代币可能被认为被低估。

Now, let's take a look at a chart that showcases the trend in the 7-day MA Bitcoin Puell Multiple over the past few years.

现在，让我们看一下一张图表，展示了过去几年 7 日 MA 比特币 Puell 倍数的趋势。

7-day MA of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple, Source: CryptoQuant

比特币 Puell 倍数的 7 天 MA，来源：CryptoQuant

The graph above shows that the 7-day MA of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple was at a higher range earlier as the rally toward the new all-time high took place.

上图显示，随着比特币普埃尔倍数反弹至历史新高，其 7 天均线早些时候处于较高区间。

However, the indicator's value has observed a sharp drop recently. But during this same period, the cryptocurrency's price has been consolidating sideways.

然而，该指标的价值最近急剧下降。但在同一时期，加密货币的价格一直在横盘整理。

So, if the price hasn't dropped, what could be impacting miner revenues? As mentioned earlier, the block rewards are nearly always constant, except during the Halving event, which occurs approximately every four years.

那么，如果价格没有下降，什么可能会影响矿工的收入呢？如前所述，区块奖励几乎总是恒定的，除了大约每四年发生一次的减半事件期间。

During this event, the asset's block rewards are permanently slashed in half. The latest Halving event occurred last month, which is why the Puell Multiple has registered such a steep drawdown.

在此事件期间，该资产的区块奖励将永久削减一半。最近的减半事件发生在上个月，这就是为什么普埃尔倍数出现如此急剧下降的原因。

With this drop, the indicator's 7-day MA has fallen below 1. According to the quant, “Investors may interpret the fall in the Puell Multiple as a sign that the market is adjusting to a new phase of scarcity, potentially preparing for a rally.”

随着此次下跌，该指标的 7 日均线已跌破 1。根据该量化分析师的说法，“投资者可能会将 Puell 倍数的下跌解读为市场正在适应新的稀缺阶段的信号，可能会为反弹做准备”。

Bitcoin's price is currently around $67,800, showing a 5% gain over the past week.

比特币价格目前约为 67,800 美元，较过去一周上涨 5%。