今天比特幣價格跌至近 65,000 美元。他們會走低嗎？

比特幣價格今天回落，跌至近一個月來的最低點，多種因素共同推動了最近的下跌。

Bitcoin prices dropped to their lowest in nearly a month on Friday as various factors converged to fuel its latest declines.

週五，由於各種因素的共同作用，比特幣價格跌至近一個月來的最低點。

The world’s most prominent digital currency fell to $65,005 this afternoon, according to Coinbase data sourced from TradingView. At this point, the cryptocurrency had clocked its lowest prices since roughly mid-May.

根據 TradingView 的 Coinbase 數據，全球最著名的數位貨幣今天下午跌至 65,005 美元。此時，加密貨幣的價格已達到五月中旬以來的最低水準。

When asked to explain these latest price developments, analysts highlighted several factors, ranging from the recent decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee to developments in the futures markets.

當被要求解釋這些最新的價格發展時，分析師強調了幾個因素，從聯邦公開市場委員會最近的決定到期貨市場的發展。

The Fed’s Potential ‘Policy Mistake’

聯準會潛在的“政策錯誤”

One market observer suggested that the FOMC may have erred earlier this week when it opted to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and forecasted it would reduce this rate only once in 2024.

一位市場觀察家表示，FOMC 本週稍早可能犯了錯誤，當時它選擇維持聯邦基金利率目標區間不變，並預測 2024 年只會降低一次利率。

“There’s a strong emerging narrative of ‘did the Fed just make a policy mistake’ as on Wednesday they held rates at recent highs and dialed back projections for cuts for the rest of the year, just as a bunch of inflation and economic growth indicators came to light,” Seth Ginns, managing partner and head of liquid investments at CoinFund, stated via emailed comments.

「有一個強烈的說法是『聯準會剛剛犯了政策錯誤嗎’，因為週三他們將利率維持在近期高位，並下調了今年剩餘時間的降息預測，就在一系列通膨和經濟成長指標公佈之際CoinFund管理合夥人兼流動投資主管Seth Ginns 在電子郵件評論中表示。

Independent analyst Armando Aguilar also weighed in on this matter, elaborating on how this affected the sentiment surrounding bitcoin and the broader digital currency markets.

獨立分析師阿曼多·阿吉拉爾 (Armando Aguilar) 也對此事發表了看法，詳細闡述了這如何影響圍繞比特幣和更廣泛的數位貨幣市場的情緒。

“The FED leaving rates unchanged between 5.25-5.50% and forecasting fewer rate cuts this year dampened the hopes of BTC (bitcoin) rising towards new ATH (all-time high) levels,” he said through email.

他透過電子郵件表示：“聯準會將利率維持在 5.25-5.50% 之間不變，並預測今年降息幅度較小，這削弱了 BTC（比特幣）升至新 ATH（歷史新高）水平的希望。”

“Instead, heightened fears of high interest rates contributed to less capital flows into crypto investment products,” Aguilar added.

「相反，對高利率的擔憂加劇導致流入加密貨幣投資產品的資本減少，」阿吉拉爾補充道。

“Going from three rate cuts to potentially only one, traders priced out expectations on expected rate cuts which weigh on assets such as crypto.”

“從三次降息到可能只有一次，交易員消化了對預期降息的預期，這對加密貨幣等資產造成壓力。”

FOMC Impact On Real Yields

聯邦公開市場委員會對實質報酬率的影響

Ginns elaborated on how the Fed’s recent decisions could impact real yields, which are yields adjusted for inflation.

金斯詳細闡述了聯準會最近的決定如何影響實際收益率，即根據通膨調整的收益率。

“Bitcoin has a strong inverse correlation with real yields,” he emphasized.

「比特幣與實際收益率具有很強的負相關性，」他強調。

“So if the Fed holds rates and inflation is decelerating, then real yields are moving higher, which is bad for bitcoin,” Ginns pointed out.

「因此，如果聯準會維持利率不變且通膨正在減速，那麼實際殖利率就會走高，這對比特幣不利，」吉恩斯指出。

“The Fed has been pretty clear that they don’t want real yields to rise, so we’d expect them to become more dovish in public appearances in the coming weeks if we see continued datapoints about weaker inflation.”

「聯準會已經非常明確地表示，他們不希望實際收益率上升，因此，如果我們看到持續疲軟的通膨數據，我們預計他們在未來幾週的公開露面中將變得更加鴿派。”

Crypto Futures Market

加密貨幣期貨市場

Several analysts commented on how recent shifts in futures positions affected both bitcoin and the overall crypto markets.

幾位分析師評論了最近期貨頭寸的變化如何影響比特幣和整個加密貨幣市場。

“Open interest data in crypto exchanges shows a large build up of long positions post ETH Spot ETF approval,” Julio Moreno, head of research for CryptoQuant, said via Telegram. However, “a few days ago prices started to drop because of profit taking and then an influx of new short positions fueled today’s drop.”

CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 透過 Telegram 表示：“加密貨幣交易所的未平倉合約數據顯示，在 ETH 現貨 ETF 獲得批准後，多頭部位大量增加。”然而，“幾天前，由於獲利回吐，價格開始下跌，然後新空頭寸的湧入加劇了今天的下跌。”

Greg Magadini, director of derivatives for digital asset data provider Amberdata, also offered his two cents on the matter.

數位資產數據提供商 Amberdata 的衍生性商品總監 Greg Magadini 也就此事提出了他的兩分錢。

“Post ETH ETF positive sentiment we saw a big buildup in crypto futures open interest, but since then the macro environment has become more hawkish due to strong jobs and the recent FOMC rate decision and press conference,” he stated via email.

他透過電子郵件表示：「在ETH ETF 出現正面情緒後，我們看到加密貨幣期貨未平倉合約大幅增加，但自那以後，由於就業強勁以及最近的FOMC 利率決定和新聞發布會，宏觀環境變得更加鷹派。

“The market is now looking for only one rate cut in 2024. This combined with the realization that recent Bitcoin ETF inflows may be due to ‘basis trades’ instead of outright Bitcoin investments, we're seeing headwinds for higher prices,” said Magadini.

Magadini 表示：「市場目前預計 2024 年只會降息一次。再加上最近比特幣 ETF 流入可能是由於『基差交易』而不是直接比特幣投資，我們看到了價格上漲的阻力。」 。

He elaborated, indicating via Telegram that “the macro environment has turned hawkish and people who bought futures on the SEC ETF decision are now stuck as sellers.”

他透過 Telegram 進行了詳細闡述，表示“宏觀環境已變得鷹派，根據 SEC ETF 決策購買期貨的人現在陷入了賣家困境。”

“Also the inflows into the BTC etf aren’t as directly bullish as first assumed, since it seems a lot of these inflows are paired against short CME futures,” Magadini added.

Magadini 補充說：“此外，流入 BTC ETF 的資金並不像最初假設的那樣直接看漲，因為似乎很多資金流入都是與做空 CME 期貨配對的。”

Disclosure: I own some bitcoin, bitcoin cash, litecoin, ether, EOS and SOL.

揭露：我擁有一些比特幣、比特幣現金、萊特幣、以太幣、EOS 和 SOL。