今天比特币价格跌至近 65,000 美元。他们会走低吗？

比特币价格今天回落，跌至近一个月来的最低点，多种因素共同推动了最近的下跌。

Bitcoin prices dropped to their lowest in nearly a month on Friday as various factors converged to fuel its latest declines.

周五，由于各种因素的共同作用，比特币价格跌至近一个月来的最低点。

The world’s most prominent digital currency fell to $65,005 this afternoon, according to Coinbase data sourced from TradingView. At this point, the cryptocurrency had clocked its lowest prices since roughly mid-May.

根据 TradingView 的 Coinbase 数据，全球最著名的数字货币今天下午跌至 65,005 美元。此时，加密货币的价格已达到五月中旬以来的最低水平。

When asked to explain these latest price developments, analysts highlighted several factors, ranging from the recent decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee to developments in the futures markets.

当被要求解释这些最新的价格发展时，分析师强调了几个因素，从联邦公开市场委员会最近的决定到期货市场的发展。

The Fed’s Potential ‘Policy Mistake’

美联储潜在的“政策错误”

One market observer suggested that the FOMC may have erred earlier this week when it opted to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and forecasted it would reduce this rate only once in 2024.

一位市场观察人士表示，FOMC 本周早些时候可能犯了一个错误，当时它选择维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，并预测 2024 年只会降低一次利率。

“There’s a strong emerging narrative of ‘did the Fed just make a policy mistake’ as on Wednesday they held rates at recent highs and dialed back projections for cuts for the rest of the year, just as a bunch of inflation and economic growth indicators came to light,” Seth Ginns, managing partner and head of liquid investments at CoinFund, stated via emailed comments.

“有一种强烈的说法是‘美联储刚刚犯了政策错误吗’，因为周三他们将利率维持在近期高位，并下调了今年剩余时间的降息预测，就在一系列通胀和经济增长指标公布之际CoinFund 管理合伙人兼流动投资主管 Seth Ginns 在电子邮件评论中表示。

Independent analyst Armando Aguilar also weighed in on this matter, elaborating on how this affected the sentiment surrounding bitcoin and the broader digital currency markets.

独立分析师阿曼多·阿吉拉尔 (Armando Aguilar) 也对此事发表了看法，详细阐述了这如何影响围绕比特币和更广泛的数字货币市场的情绪。

“The FED leaving rates unchanged between 5.25-5.50% and forecasting fewer rate cuts this year dampened the hopes of BTC (bitcoin) rising towards new ATH (all-time high) levels,” he said through email.

他通过电子邮件表示：“美联储将利率维持在 5.25-5.50% 之间不变，并预测今年降息幅度较小，这削弱了 BTC（比特币）升至新 ATH（历史新高）水平的希望。”

“Instead, heightened fears of high interest rates contributed to less capital flows into crypto investment products,” Aguilar added.

“相反，对高利率的担忧加剧导致流入加密货币投资产品的资本减少，”阿吉拉尔补充道。

“Going from three rate cuts to potentially only one, traders priced out expectations on expected rate cuts which weigh on assets such as crypto.”

“从三次降息到可能只有一次，交易员消化了对预期降息的预期，这对加密货币等资产造成压力。”

FOMC Impact On Real Yields

联邦公开市场委员会对实际收益率的影响

Ginns elaborated on how the Fed’s recent decisions could impact real yields, which are yields adjusted for inflation.

金斯详细阐述了美联储最近的决定如何影响实际收益率，即根据通胀调整的收益率。

“Bitcoin has a strong inverse correlation with real yields,” he emphasized.

“比特币与实际收益率具有很强的负相关性，”他强调。

“So if the Fed holds rates and inflation is decelerating, then real yields are moving higher, which is bad for bitcoin,” Ginns pointed out.

“因此，如果美联储维持利率不变并且通胀正在减速，那么实际收益率就会走高，这对比特币不利，”吉恩斯指出。

“The Fed has been pretty clear that they don’t want real yields to rise, so we’d expect them to become more dovish in public appearances in the coming weeks if we see continued datapoints about weaker inflation.”

“美联储已经非常明确地表示，他们不希望实际收益率上升，因此，如果我们看到持续疲软的通胀数据，我们预计他们在未来几周的公开露面中将变得更加鸽派。”

Crypto Futures Market

加密货币期货市场

Several analysts commented on how recent shifts in futures positions affected both bitcoin and the overall crypto markets.

几位分析师评论了最近期货头寸的变化如何影响比特币和整个加密货币市场。

“Open interest data in crypto exchanges shows a large build up of long positions post ETH Spot ETF approval,” Julio Moreno, head of research for CryptoQuant, said via Telegram. However, “a few days ago prices started to drop because of profit taking and then an influx of new short positions fueled today’s drop.”

CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 通过 Telegram 表示：“加密货币交易所的未平仓合约数据显示，在 ETH 现货 ETF 获得批准后，多头头寸大量增加。”然而，“几天前，由于获利回吐，价格开始下跌，然后新空头头寸的涌入加剧了今天的下跌。”

Greg Magadini, director of derivatives for digital asset data provider Amberdata, also offered his two cents on the matter.

数字资产数据提供商 Amberdata 的衍生品总监 Greg Magadini 也就此事提出了他的两分钱。

“Post ETH ETF positive sentiment we saw a big buildup in crypto futures open interest, but since then the macro environment has become more hawkish due to strong jobs and the recent FOMC rate decision and press conference,” he stated via email.

他通过电子邮件表示：“在 ETH ETF 出现积极情绪后，我们看到加密货币期货未平仓合约大幅增加，但自那以后，由于就业强劲以及最近的 FOMC 利率决定和新闻发布会，宏观环境变得更加鹰派。”

“The market is now looking for only one rate cut in 2024. This combined with the realization that recent Bitcoin ETF inflows may be due to ‘basis trades’ instead of outright Bitcoin investments, we're seeing headwinds for higher prices,” said Magadini.

Magadini 表示：“市场目前预计 2024 年只会降息一次。再加上最近比特币 ETF 流入可能是由于‘基差交易’而不是直接比特币投资，我们看到了价格上涨的阻力。” 。

He elaborated, indicating via Telegram that “the macro environment has turned hawkish and people who bought futures on the SEC ETF decision are now stuck as sellers.”

他通过 Telegram 进行了详细阐述，表示“宏观环境已变得鹰派，根据 SEC ETF 决策购买期货的人现在陷入了卖家困境。”

“Also the inflows into the BTC etf aren’t as directly bullish as first assumed, since it seems a lot of these inflows are paired against short CME futures,” Magadini added.

Magadini 补充道：“此外，流入 BTC ETF 的资金并不像最初假设的那样直接看涨，因为似乎很多资金流入都是与做空 CME 期货配对的。”

Disclosure: I own some bitcoin, bitcoin cash, litecoin, ether, EOS and SOL.

披露：我拥有一些比特币、比特币现金、莱特币、以太币、EOS 和 SOL。