比特幣價格，M2錢和量子分析師：解開相關性混亂

比特幣的價格真的是由全球貨幣供應驅動的嗎？ Quant分析師正在挑戰流行模型，敦促對數據過於擬合的數據謹慎。獲取真正的勺子！

Alright, crypto enthusiasts, let's dive into the swirling vortex of Bitcoin price predictions, M2 money supply, and the ever-watchful eyes of quant analysts. What's the real deal with these interconnected forces? The latest buzz is all about questioning established models and digging deeper into the data.

好吧，加密愛好者，讓我們深入研究比特幣價格預測，M2貨幣供應和量化分析師不斷觀看的眼睛的漩渦渦流。與這些相互聯繫的力量有什麼真正的問題？最新的嗡嗡聲是關於質疑已建立的模型並深入研究數據的全部內容。

The M2-Bitcoin Correlation: Fact or Fiction?

M2-bitcoin相關性：事實還是虛構？

For a while now, the idea that Bitcoin's price is closely tied to the global M2 money supply has been gaining traction. The argument is that as the money supply expands, so does Bitcoin's price. Sounds simple enough, right?

一段時間以來，比特幣價格與全球M2貨幣供應緊密相關的想法一直在吸引。論點是，隨著貨幣供應的擴大，比特幣的價格也隨之而來。聽起來很簡單，對嗎？

But hold your horses! Sina, a sharp-eyed quant analyst from 21st Capital, is throwing a wrench in the works. He's calling out this correlation as a classic case of data overfitting. According to Sina, manipulating the data to fit historical patterns doesn't guarantee future predictive accuracy. He argues that the Global M2 data is flawed, mixing data from countries with varying reporting speeds, thus creating a misleading impression of daily fluctuations in global liquidity.

但是握住你的馬！來自第21首都的敏銳的量化分析師Sina正在為扳手扔掉。他將這種相關性稱為典型的數據過度擬合案例。根據Sina的說法，操縱數據符合歷史模式並不能保證未來的預測準確性。他認為，全球M2數據是有缺陷的，將來自不同報告速度的國家的數據混合在一起，從而對全球流動性每日波動產生了誤導的印象。

In a June 24 video on X, Sina says, “This is a terrible failure of not understanding overfitting... What I’m seeing doesn’t even pass the first month of a first-year data analytics course.” Ouch!

在6月24日的X視頻中，Sina說：“這是一個不理解過度擬合的糟糕的失敗……我所看到的甚至沒有通過第一年數據分析課程的第一個月。”哎喲!

Zooming Out: The Devil's in the Details

放大：細節中的魔鬼

Sina points out that the seemingly perfect alignment between Bitcoin and Global M2 often falls apart when you zoom out or tweak the parameters. Minor adjustments in lead time or scale can lead to vastly different outcomes. “Let’s try a lead of 80 days. That doesn’t look good. What about 108? Ah, now the tops align—so let’s zoom in again and pretend it works,” he quips. It’s all about perspective, baby!

Sina指出，當您縮小或調整參數時，比特幣和全球M2之間看似完美的對齊通常會崩潰。提前時間或規模的較小調整會導致截然不同的結果。他打趣說：“讓我們嘗試80天的線索。這看起來不好。108呢？啊，現在頂部的一致 - 所以讓我們再次放大並假裝它有效。”這一切都是關於觀點，寶貝！

Bitcoin as the Leader, Not the Follower?

比特幣是領導者，而不是追隨者？

Here's another twist: what if Bitcoin isn't following liquidity but actually leading it? Sina suggests that in the last cycle, Bitcoin topped before liquidity did, potentially reversing the assumed cause-and-effect relationship. This is some food for thought!

這是另一個轉折：如果比特幣不遵循流動性，但實際上是領先的？西娜表明，在最後一個週期中，比特幣在流動性之前先加入，有可能逆轉假定的因果關係。這是一些思考的食物！

Deviation and Market Dynamics

偏差和市場動態

Adding another layer to the discussion, crypto analyst Colin has pointed out Bitcoin's price's deviation from the Global M2 money supply. While such deviations can raise eyebrows, Colin assures us that they're a normal part of the process and don't necessarily invalidate the broader trend.

加密分析師Colin在討論中增加了另一層，指出了比特幣的價格偏離全球M2貨幣供應。儘管這種偏差可以引起人們的注意，但科林向我們保證，它們是該過程的正常部分，不一定會使更廣泛的趨勢無效。

Raoul Pal chimes in, suggesting that the Bitcoin price's correlation with the money supply indicates there's no need to panic about the current price action. According to Pal, if 89% of BTC's price action is explained by global liquidity, then almost all news and narrative are just noise.

拉烏爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）的鐘聲提出，表明比特幣價格與貨幣供應量的相關性表明無需驚恐當前的價格行動。根據PAL的說法，如果全球流動性解釋了BTC的89％的價格行動，那麼幾乎所有的新聞和敘述都是噪音。

The Bottom Line: Proceed with Caution

底線：謹慎

So, what's the takeaway from all this? While the M2 money supply might offer some directional insights, it's not a crystal ball. Quant analysts are reminding us to be wary of overfitting models and to consider the bigger picture. The market is complex, and no single indicator can predict Bitcoin's price with certainty.

那麼，這一切的收穫是什麼？雖然M2貨幣供應可能會提供一些方向性的見解，但這不是水晶球。 Quant分析師提醒我們要警惕過度擬合的模型，並考慮更大的情況。市場很複雜，沒有一個指標可以確定地預測比特幣的價格。

Current Market Snapshot

當前的市場快照

As of now, Bitcoin is trading above $107,000, showing a 2.2% increase in the last 24 hours. BTC's dominance continues to rise, holding almost 66% of the total crypto market value.

截至目前，比特幣的交易超過107,000美元，顯示過去24小時的增長2.2％。 BTC的統治地位不斷上升，佔加密貨幣總價值的近66％。

Also, the FHFA Director William Pulte sharing on social media that borrowers would soon be able to take advantage of their crypto holdings for loan purposes, may also push bitcoin’s price higher.

此外，FHFA董事威廉·普爾特（William Pulte）在社交媒體上共享，借款人很快就可以利用其加密貨幣來貸款，也可能會提高比特幣的價格。

What does it all mean? It's hard to say for sure. But one thing's clear: the world of Bitcoin is full of surprises.

這是什麼意思？肯定很難說。但是一件事很清楚：比特幣的世界充滿了驚喜。

Until next time, keep your wits about you, question everything, and remember: even the smartest analysts can't predict the future! Happy trading, y'all!

直到下一次，請保持智慧，質疑一切並記住：即使是最聰明的分析師也無法預測未來！祝大家交易快樂！