比特币价格，M2钱和量子分析师：解开相关性混乱

比特币的价格真的是由全球货币供应驱动的吗？ Quant分析师正在挑战流行模型，敦促对数据过于拟合的数据谨慎。获取真正的勺子！

Alright, crypto enthusiasts, let's dive into the swirling vortex of Bitcoin price predictions, M2 money supply, and the ever-watchful eyes of quant analysts. What's the real deal with these interconnected forces? The latest buzz is all about questioning established models and digging deeper into the data.

好吧，加密爱好者，让我们深入研究比特币价格预测，M2货币供应和量化分析师不断观看的眼睛的漩涡涡流。与这些相互联系的力量有什么真正的问题？最新的嗡嗡声是关于质疑已建立的模型并深入研究数据的全部内容。

The M2-Bitcoin Correlation: Fact or Fiction?

M2-bitcoin相关性：事实还是虚构？

For a while now, the idea that Bitcoin's price is closely tied to the global M2 money supply has been gaining traction. The argument is that as the money supply expands, so does Bitcoin's price. Sounds simple enough, right?

一段时间以来，比特币价格与全球M2货币供应紧密相关的想法一直在吸引。论点是，随着货币供应的扩大，比特币的价格也随之而来。听起来很简单，对吗？

But hold your horses! Sina, a sharp-eyed quant analyst from 21st Capital, is throwing a wrench in the works. He's calling out this correlation as a classic case of data overfitting. According to Sina, manipulating the data to fit historical patterns doesn't guarantee future predictive accuracy. He argues that the Global M2 data is flawed, mixing data from countries with varying reporting speeds, thus creating a misleading impression of daily fluctuations in global liquidity.

但是握住你的马！来自第21首都的敏锐的量化分析师Sina正在为扳手扔掉。他将这种相关性称为典型的数据过度拟合案例。根据Sina的说法，操纵数据符合历史模式并不能保证未来的预测准确性。他认为，全球M2数据是有缺陷的，将来自不同报告速度的国家的数据混合在一起，从而对全球流动性每日波动产生了误导的印象。

In a June 24 video on X, Sina says, “This is a terrible failure of not understanding overfitting... What I’m seeing doesn’t even pass the first month of a first-year data analytics course.” Ouch!

在6月24日的X视频中，Sina说：“这是一个不理解过度拟合的糟糕的失败……我所看到的甚至没有通过第一年数据分析课程的第一个月。”哎哟!

Zooming Out: The Devil's in the Details

放大：细节中的魔鬼

Sina points out that the seemingly perfect alignment between Bitcoin and Global M2 often falls apart when you zoom out or tweak the parameters. Minor adjustments in lead time or scale can lead to vastly different outcomes. “Let’s try a lead of 80 days. That doesn’t look good. What about 108? Ah, now the tops align—so let’s zoom in again and pretend it works,” he quips. It’s all about perspective, baby!

Sina指出，当您缩小或调整参数时，比特币和全球M2之间看似完美的对齐通常会崩溃。提前时间或规模的较小调整会导致截然不同的结果。他打趣说：“让我们尝试80天的线索。这看起来不好。108呢？啊，现在顶部的一致 - 所以让我们再次放大并假装它有效。”这一切都是关于观点，宝贝！

Bitcoin as the Leader, Not the Follower?

比特币是领导者，而不是追随者？

Here's another twist: what if Bitcoin isn't following liquidity but actually leading it? Sina suggests that in the last cycle, Bitcoin topped before liquidity did, potentially reversing the assumed cause-and-effect relationship. This is some food for thought!

这是另一个转折：如果比特币不遵循流动性，但实际上是领先的？西娜表明，在最后一个周期中，比特币在流动性之前先加入，有可能逆转假定的因果关系。这是一些思考的食物！

Deviation and Market Dynamics

偏差和市场动态

Adding another layer to the discussion, crypto analyst Colin has pointed out Bitcoin's price's deviation from the Global M2 money supply. While such deviations can raise eyebrows, Colin assures us that they're a normal part of the process and don't necessarily invalidate the broader trend.

加密分析师Colin在讨论中增加了另一层，指出了比特币的价格偏离全球M2货币供应。尽管这种偏差可以引起人们的注意，但科林向我们保证，它们是该过程的正常部分，不一定会使更广泛的趋势无效。

Raoul Pal chimes in, suggesting that the Bitcoin price's correlation with the money supply indicates there's no need to panic about the current price action. According to Pal, if 89% of BTC's price action is explained by global liquidity, then almost all news and narrative are just noise.

拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）的钟声提出，表明比特币价格与货币供应量的相关性表明无需惊恐当前的价格行动。根据PAL的说法，如果全球流动性解释了BTC的89％的价格行动，那么几乎所有的新闻和叙述都是噪音。

The Bottom Line: Proceed with Caution

底线：谨慎

So, what's the takeaway from all this? While the M2 money supply might offer some directional insights, it's not a crystal ball. Quant analysts are reminding us to be wary of overfitting models and to consider the bigger picture. The market is complex, and no single indicator can predict Bitcoin's price with certainty.

那么，这一切的收获是什么？虽然M2货币供应可能会提供一些方向性的见解，但这不是水晶球。 Quant分析师提醒我们要警惕过度拟合的模型，并考虑更大的情况。市场很复杂，没有一个指标可以确定地预测比特币的价格。

Current Market Snapshot

当前的市场快照

As of now, Bitcoin is trading above $107,000, showing a 2.2% increase in the last 24 hours. BTC's dominance continues to rise, holding almost 66% of the total crypto market value.

截至目前，比特币的交易超过107,000美元，显示过去24小时的增长2.2％。 BTC的统治地位不断上升，占加密货币总价值的近66％。

Also, the FHFA Director William Pulte sharing on social media that borrowers would soon be able to take advantage of their crypto holdings for loan purposes, may also push bitcoin’s price higher.

此外，FHFA董事威廉·普尔特（William Pulte）在社交媒体上共享，借款人很快就可以利用其加密货币来贷款，也可能会提高比特币的价格。

What does it all mean? It's hard to say for sure. But one thing's clear: the world of Bitcoin is full of surprises.

这是什么意思？肯定很难说。但是一件事很清楚：比特币的世界充满了惊喜。

Until next time, keep your wits about you, question everything, and remember: even the smartest analysts can't predict the future! Happy trading, y'all!

直到下一次，请保持智慧，质疑一切并记住：即使是最聪明的分析师也无法预测未来！祝大家交易快乐！