研究發現比特幣採礦禁令可能加劇碳排放

由於應對氣候變遷是全球關注的核心問題，一些政府正在考慮禁止比特幣挖礦，這是一種能源密集過程，經常因其對環境的影響而受到批評。

As the world grapples with the climate crisis, some governments are considering banning Bitcoin mining, an energy-intensive process that has faced scrutiny for its environmental impact. However, a new study led by the research group Exponential Science reveals a surprising paradox: banning Bitcoin mining could lead to higher carbon emissions, ultimately undermining climate goals. The study, titled The Unexpected Carbon Consequences of Bitcoin Mining Bans: A Paradox in Environmental Policy, delves into the potential displacement effects caused by these bans.

隨著世界努力應對氣候危機，一些政府正在考慮禁止比特幣挖礦，這是一種能源密集過程，因其對環境的影響而受到審查。然而，指數科學研究小組領導的一項新研究揭示了一個令人驚訝的悖論：禁止比特幣挖礦可能會導致更高的碳排放，最終破壞氣候目標。這項研究題為“比特幣採礦禁令的意外碳後果：環境政策的悖論”，深入研究了這些禁令造成的潛在位移效應。

The paradoxical consequences of Bitcoin mining bans According to the researchers at Exponential Science, bans on Bitcoin mining can have paradoxical effects, driving miners to relocate to regions with more carbon-intensive energy sources. “A ban in the United States or Europe could actually exacerbate global carbon emissions, as miners would move to countries that rely on fossil fuels,” explains Juan Ignacio Ibañez, a contributor to the study. To illustrate, the study indicates that a mining ban in a country like Norway, which predominantly uses renewable energy sources, would push miners to move to countries like Kazakhstan, where electricity is mainly generated by coal-fired power plants.

比特幣採礦禁令的矛盾後果 根據 Exponential Science 的研究人員的說法，比特幣採礦禁令可能會產生矛盾的影響，促使礦工搬遷到碳密集型能源地區。該研究的撰稿人胡安·伊格納西奧·伊巴涅斯(Juan Ignacio Ibañez) 解釋道：「美國或歐洲的禁令實際上可能會加劇全球碳排放，因為礦工將遷移到依賴化石燃料的國家。為了說明這一點，該研究表明，像挪威這樣主要使用再生能源的國家的採礦禁令將促使礦工遷移到哈薩克這樣的國家，那裡的電力主要由燃煤電廠發電。

The study also demonstrates that this displacement of miners could lead to a net increase in global emissions. According to their calculations, a mining ban in Europe could increase global emissions from the Bitcoin blockchain by several percentage points, as miners would shift to regions with less stringent ecological regulations. In contrast, a ban in a country like Kazakhstan, which heavily relies on fossil fuels, could significantly help reduce the carbon emissions associated with the Bitcoin network, with an estimated reduction of 7.63% in annual global emissions.

該研究還表明，礦工的流離失所可能導致全球排放量淨增加。根據他們的計算，歐洲的採礦禁令可能會使比特幣區塊鏈的全球排放量增加幾個百分點，因為礦工將轉移到生態法規較不嚴格的地區。相較之下，像哈薩克這樣嚴重依賴化石燃料的國家的禁令可能會極大地幫助減少與比特幣網路相關的碳排放，預計全球年排放量將減少 7.63%。

A disparate impact by region The study’s findings also show that the impact of a ban can vary within the same country depending on the region. In the United States, for example, a mining ban in California, where renewable energy sources are substantial, would have a detrimental impact and push miners to states where the energy mix is less green. On the other hand, a ban in states like Kentucky or Georgia, where dependence on coal is greater, could actually help reduce global emissions from the Bitcoin network, according to Exponential Science’s models.

不同地區的影響不同 該研究的結果還表明，禁令的影響在同一國家內可能因地區而異。例如，在美國，再生能源豐富的加州的採礦禁令將產生不利影響，並將礦工推向能源結構綠色程度較低的州。另一方面，根據指數科學的模型，肯塔基州或喬治亞州等對煤炭依賴程度較高的州的禁令實際上可能有助於減少比特幣網路的全球排放。

An evident example is China, where Bitcoin mining was officially banned in 2021. According to the researchers, this ban has indeed pushed some miners to continue their operations clandestinely, particularly in provinces like Xinjiang. However, if all mining activities were to cease in this province, it would result in a reduction of nearly 6.9% of global emissions. The researchers highlight the need for regulation informed by scientific data to prevent overly broad bans from leading to outcomes contrary to climate goals.

一個明顯的例子是中國，該國於 2021 年正式禁止比特幣挖礦。然而，如果該省停止所有採礦活動，全球排放量將減少近6.9%。研究人員強調，需要根據科學數據進行監管，以防止過於廣泛的禁令導致與氣候目標相反的結果。

In light of the climate emergency, this study by Exponential Science underscores the importance of a nuanced approach in mining regulation policies for Bitcoin. As Nikhil Vadgama, co-founder of Exponential Science, reminds us, “emerging technologies like blockchain are complex systems, and poorly designed bans can lead to butterfly effects with unintended consequences.” For governments, this means that it is not enough to ban energy-intensive activities like mining; it is also crucial to assess the displacement effects and environmental impacts that may arise.

鑑於氣候緊急情況，指數科學的這項研究強調了在比特幣採礦監管政策中採取細緻入微的方法的重要性。正如 Exponential Science 聯合創始人 Nikhil Vadgama 提醒我們的那樣，“像區塊鏈這樣的新興技術是複雜的系統，設計不當的禁令可能會導致蝴蝶效應，帶來意想不到的後果。”對政府來說，這意味著僅僅禁止採礦等能源密集活動是不夠的；評估可能產生的流離失所影響和環境影響也至關重要。

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

我畢業於圖盧茲政治學院，並持有Alyra 頒發的區塊鏈顧問認證，於2019 年加入了Cointribune 冒險之旅。並告知大眾大眾了解這個不斷發展的生態系統。我的目標是讓每個人都能更了解區塊鏈並抓住它所提供的機會。我每天都努力對時事進行客觀分析，解讀市場趨勢，傳播最新的技術創新，並透視這場正在進行的革命的經濟和社會問題。