研究发现比特币采矿禁令可能会加剧碳排放

由于应对气候变化是全球关注的核心问题，一些政府正在考虑禁止比特币挖矿，这是一种能源密集型过程，经常因其对环境的影响而受到批评。

As the world grapples with the climate crisis, some governments are considering banning Bitcoin mining, an energy-intensive process that has faced scrutiny for its environmental impact. However, a new study led by the research group Exponential Science reveals a surprising paradox: banning Bitcoin mining could lead to higher carbon emissions, ultimately undermining climate goals. The study, titled The Unexpected Carbon Consequences of Bitcoin Mining Bans: A Paradox in Environmental Policy, delves into the potential displacement effects caused by these bans.

随着世界努力应对气候危机，一些政府正在考虑禁止比特币挖矿，这是一种能源密集型过程，因其对环境的影响而受到审查。然而，指数科学研究小组领导的一项新研究揭示了一个令人惊讶的悖论：禁止比特币挖矿可能会导致更高的碳排放，最终破坏气候目标。这项研究题为“比特币采矿禁令的意外碳后果：环境政策的悖论”，深入研究了这些禁令造成的潜在位移效应。

The paradoxical consequences of Bitcoin mining bans According to the researchers at Exponential Science, bans on Bitcoin mining can have paradoxical effects, driving miners to relocate to regions with more carbon-intensive energy sources. “A ban in the United States or Europe could actually exacerbate global carbon emissions, as miners would move to countries that rely on fossil fuels,” explains Juan Ignacio Ibañez, a contributor to the study. To illustrate, the study indicates that a mining ban in a country like Norway, which predominantly uses renewable energy sources, would push miners to move to countries like Kazakhstan, where electricity is mainly generated by coal-fired power plants.

比特币采矿禁令的矛盾后果 根据 Exponential Science 的研究人员的说法，比特币采矿禁令可能会产生矛盾的影响，促使矿工搬迁到碳密集型能源地区。该研究的撰稿人胡安·伊格纳西奥·伊巴涅斯 (Juan Ignacio Ibañez) 解释说：“美国或欧洲的禁令实际上可能会加剧全球碳排放，因为矿工将迁移到依赖化石燃料的国家。”为了说明这一点，该研究表明，像挪威这样主要使用可再生能源的国家的采矿禁令将促使矿工迁移到哈萨克斯坦这样的国家，那里的电力主要由燃煤电厂发电。

The study also demonstrates that this displacement of miners could lead to a net increase in global emissions. According to their calculations, a mining ban in Europe could increase global emissions from the Bitcoin blockchain by several percentage points, as miners would shift to regions with less stringent ecological regulations. In contrast, a ban in a country like Kazakhstan, which heavily relies on fossil fuels, could significantly help reduce the carbon emissions associated with the Bitcoin network, with an estimated reduction of 7.63% in annual global emissions.

该研究还表明，矿工的流离失所可能导致全球排放量净增加。根据他们的计算，欧洲的采矿禁令可能会使比特币区块链的全球排放量增加几个百分点，因为矿工将转移到生态法规不太严格的地区。相比之下，像哈萨克斯坦这样严重依赖化石燃料的国家的禁令可能会极大地帮助减少与比特币网络相关的碳排放，预计全球年排放量将减少 7.63%。

A disparate impact by region The study’s findings also show that the impact of a ban can vary within the same country depending on the region. In the United States, for example, a mining ban in California, where renewable energy sources are substantial, would have a detrimental impact and push miners to states where the energy mix is less green. On the other hand, a ban in states like Kentucky or Georgia, where dependence on coal is greater, could actually help reduce global emissions from the Bitcoin network, according to Exponential Science’s models.

不同地区的影响不同 该研究的结果还表明，禁令的影响在同一国家内可能因地区而异。例如，在美国，可再生能源丰富的加利福尼亚州的采矿禁令将产生不利影响，并将矿工推向能源结构绿色程度较低的州。另一方面，根据指数科学的模型，肯塔基州或佐治亚州等对煤炭依赖程度较高的州的禁令实际上可能有助于减少比特币网络的全球排放。

An evident example is China, where Bitcoin mining was officially banned in 2021. According to the researchers, this ban has indeed pushed some miners to continue their operations clandestinely, particularly in provinces like Xinjiang. However, if all mining activities were to cease in this province, it would result in a reduction of nearly 6.9% of global emissions. The researchers highlight the need for regulation informed by scientific data to prevent overly broad bans from leading to outcomes contrary to climate goals.

一个明显的例子是中国，该国于 2021 年正式禁止比特币挖矿。研究人员表示，这一禁令确实迫使一些矿工继续秘密作业，特别是在新疆等省份。然而，如果该省停止所有采矿活动，全球排放量将减少近6.9%。研究人员强调，需要根据科学数据进行监管，以防止过于广泛的禁令导致与气候目标相反的结果。

In light of the climate emergency, this study by Exponential Science underscores the importance of a nuanced approach in mining regulation policies for Bitcoin. As Nikhil Vadgama, co-founder of Exponential Science, reminds us, “emerging technologies like blockchain are complex systems, and poorly designed bans can lead to butterfly effects with unintended consequences.” For governments, this means that it is not enough to ban energy-intensive activities like mining; it is also crucial to assess the displacement effects and environmental impacts that may arise.

鉴于气候紧急情况，指数科学的这项研究强调了在比特币采矿监管政策中采取细致入微的方法的重要性。正如 Exponential Science 联合创始人 Nikhil Vadgama 提醒我们的那样，“像区块链这样的新兴技术是复杂的系统，设计不当的禁令可能会导致蝴蝶效应，带来意想不到的后果。”对于政府来说，这意味着仅仅禁止采矿等能源密集型活动是不够的；评估可能产生的流离失所影响和环境影响也至关重要。

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.

通过我们的“阅读赚钱”计划最大化您的 Cointribune 体验！对于您阅读的每一篇文章，均可赚取积分并获得独家奖励。立即注册并开始赚取福利。

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

我毕业于图卢兹政治学院，并持有 Alyra 颁发的区块链顾问认证，于 2019 年加入了 Cointribune 冒险之旅。我坚信区块链具有改变经济许多部门的潜力，因此我致力于提高人们的认识并告知公众公众了解这个不断发展的生态系统。我的目标是让每个人都能更好地了解区块链并抓住它提供的机会。我每天都努力对时事进行客观分析，解读市场趋势，传播最新的技术创新，并透视这场正在进行的革命的经济和社会问题。