比特幣與美國股票的波動相關性正在引發有關其作為全球避風者資產的作用的疑問

根據區塊鏈數據提供商Redstone Oracles的新研究，比特幣（BTC）在分析短期，為期7天的落後相關性時，與美國股票市場表現出很強的負相關性。

Bitcoin's shifting correlation with US equities is raising questions about its role as a global safe-haven asset during periods of financial stress.

比特幣與美國股票的轉變相關性正在提出有關其在財務壓力期間作為全球避風港資產的作用的疑問。

Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a strong negative correlation with the US stock market when analyzing the short-term, seven-day trailing correlation, according to new research from blockchain data provider RedStone Oracles, shared exclusively with Cointelegraph.

根據區塊鏈數據提供商Redstone Oracles的新研究，比特幣（BTC）在分析短期，為期7天的落後相關性時與美國股票市場表現出很強的負相關性。

However, RedStone said that the 30-day indicator signals a “variable correlation” between Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 index, with the correlation coefficient ranging from -0.2 to 0.4.

但是，雷德斯通（Redstone）表示，30天的指標標誌著比特幣價格與標準普爾500指數之間的“可變相關性”，相關係數在-0.2至0.4之間。

This fluctuating correlation suggests that Bitcoin “doesn’t consistently function as a true hedge for equities” due to its lack of a strong negative correlation below -0.3, which is needed for “reliable counter movement during market stress,” the report said.

報告說，這種波動的相關性表明，由於缺乏低於-0.3的強大負相關性，比特幣“不一定地充當股票的真正對沖”，這是“在市場壓力期間可靠的反運動”所需的。

This research suggests that while Bitcoin may not be a dependable hedge against stock market declines, it offers value as a portfolio diversifier.

這項研究表明，雖然比特幣可能不是針對股票市場下降的可靠對沖，但它作為投資組合多元化者提供了價值。

This fluctuating dynamic signals that Bitcoin often moves independently from other assets, potentially offering additional returns while other assets are struggling. Still, Bitcoin has yet to mirror the safe-haven dynamics of gold and government bonds, RedStone suggests.

比特幣通常與其他資產獨立移動的動態信號，有可能提供其他回報，而其他資產則掙扎。 Redstone認為，儘管如此，比特幣尚未反映出黃金和政府債券的避風勢動力。

Bitcoin needs to ‘mature’ before decoupling from stock market

比特幣需要“成熟”，然後再與股票市場解耦

While Bitcoin is poised to grow into a safe-haven asset in the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency still needs to ‘mature’ as a global asset, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer at RedStone.

Redstone的聯合創始人兼首席運營官Marcin Kazmierczak表示，儘管將來比特幣有望在將來成長為避風港資產，但世界上第一個加密貨幣仍然需要“成熟”作為全球資產。

“Bitcoin still needs to mature before decoupling from stock markets,” Kazmierczak told Cointelegraph, adding:

Kazmierczak對Cointelegraph表示：“比特幣仍需要成熟。”

“We might see Bitcoin maturing into a safe-haven asset in the next 3-5 years as macroeconomic stability becomes more relevant for markets.”

“隨著宏觀經濟穩定與市場更加相關，我們可能會看到比特幣在未來3 - 5年內成熟為避風港資產。”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin will see growing recognition as a portfolio diversifier, with an annualized return of over 230% for the past five years, which “significantly outperformed” both stocks and traditional safe-haven assets, Kazmierczak said, adding that “even a small 1–5% Bitcoin allocation can meaningfully enhance a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.”

同時，比特幣將越來越認可作為投資組合的多元化，過去五年的年增長率超過230％，卡茲米爾卡克（Kazmierczak）“顯著勝過”股票和傳統的避風港資產。

This is despite Bitcoin's price volatility, which is now lower than that of major US equities.

儘管比特幣的價格波動率仍然低於美國主要股票的價格波動。

Bitcoin's weekly volatility hit a 563-day low on April 30, a development that may signal more stable price action.

比特幣的每週波動率在4月30日達到了563天的低點，這一發展可能標誌著更穩定的價格動作。

Bitcoin's price volatility fell below the realized volatility of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, signaling that investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a long-term investment vehicle, Cointelegraph reported on May 13.

Cointelegraph在5月13日報導說，比特幣的價格波動率低於標準普爾500標準普爾500標準普爾和納斯達克100的實現波動率，這表明投資者越來越多地將比特幣視為長期投資工具。