比特币与美国股票的波动相关性正在引发有关其作为全球避风者资产的作用的疑问

根据区块链数据提供商Redstone Oracles的新研究，比特币（BTC）在分析短期，为期7天的落后相关性时，与美国股票市场表现出很强的负相关性。

Bitcoin's shifting correlation with US equities is raising questions about its role as a global safe-haven asset during periods of financial stress.

比特币与美国股票的转变相关性正在提出有关其在财务压力期间作为全球避风港资产的作用的疑问。

Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a strong negative correlation with the US stock market when analyzing the short-term, seven-day trailing correlation, according to new research from blockchain data provider RedStone Oracles, shared exclusively with Cointelegraph.

根据区块链数据提供商Redstone Oracles的新研究，比特币（BTC）在分析短期，为期7天的落后相关性时与美国股票市场表现出很强的负相关性。

However, RedStone said that the 30-day indicator signals a “variable correlation” between Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 index, with the correlation coefficient ranging from -0.2 to 0.4.

但是，雷德斯通（Redstone）表示，30天的指标标志着比特币价格与标准普尔500指数之间的“可变相关性”，相关系数在-0.2至0.4之间。

This fluctuating correlation suggests that Bitcoin “doesn’t consistently function as a true hedge for equities” due to its lack of a strong negative correlation below -0.3, which is needed for “reliable counter movement during market stress,” the report said.

报告说，这种波动的相关性表明，由于缺乏低于-0.3的强大负相关性，比特币“不一定地充当股票的真正对冲”，这是“在市场压力期间可靠的反运动”所需的。

This research suggests that while Bitcoin may not be a dependable hedge against stock market declines, it offers value as a portfolio diversifier.

这项研究表明，虽然比特币可能不是针对股票市场下降的可靠对冲，但它作为投资组合多元化者提供了价值。

This fluctuating dynamic signals that Bitcoin often moves independently from other assets, potentially offering additional returns while other assets are struggling. Still, Bitcoin has yet to mirror the safe-haven dynamics of gold and government bonds, RedStone suggests.

比特币通常与其他资产独立移动的动态信号，有可能提供其他回报，而其他资产则挣扎。 Redstone认为，尽管如此，比特币尚未反映出黄金和政府债券的避风势动力。

Bitcoin needs to ‘mature’ before decoupling from stock market

比特币需要“成熟”，然后再与股票市场解耦

While Bitcoin is poised to grow into a safe-haven asset in the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency still needs to ‘mature’ as a global asset, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer at RedStone.

Redstone的联合创始人兼首席运营官Marcin Kazmierczak表示，尽管将来比特币有望在将来成长为避风港资产，但世界上第一个加密货币仍然需要“成熟”作为全球资产。

“Bitcoin still needs to mature before decoupling from stock markets,” Kazmierczak told Cointelegraph, adding:

Kazmierczak对Cointelegraph表示：“比特币仍需要成熟。”

“We might see Bitcoin maturing into a safe-haven asset in the next 3-5 years as macroeconomic stability becomes more relevant for markets.”

“随着宏观经济稳定与市场更加相关，我们可能会看到比特币在未来3 - 5年内成熟为避风港资产。”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin will see growing recognition as a portfolio diversifier, with an annualized return of over 230% for the past five years, which “significantly outperformed” both stocks and traditional safe-haven assets, Kazmierczak said, adding that “even a small 1–5% Bitcoin allocation can meaningfully enhance a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.”

同时，比特币将越来越认可作为投资组合的多元化，过去五年的年增长率超过230％，卡兹米尔卡克（Kazmierczak）“显着胜过”股票和传统的避风港资产。

This is despite Bitcoin's price volatility, which is now lower than that of major US equities.

尽管比特币的价格波动率仍然低于美国主要股票的价格波动。

Bitcoin's weekly volatility hit a 563-day low on April 30, a development that may signal more stable price action.

比特币的每周波动率在4月30日达到了563天的低点，这一发展可能标志着更稳定的价格动作。

Bitcoin's price volatility fell below the realized volatility of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, signaling that investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a long-term investment vehicle, Cointelegraph reported on May 13.

Cointelegraph在5月13日报道说，比特币的价格波动率低于标准普尔500标准普尔500标准普尔和纳斯达克100的实现波动率，这表明投资者越来越多地将比特币视为长期投资工具。