比特幣交易所儲備近年來僅略為下降

交易餘額是衡量中心化交易所錢包中比特幣總量的指標，一直是鏈上分析社群的熱門話題。

Analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted that centralized cryptocurrency exchanges have not been losing their Bitcoin (BTC) holdings to the extent that was previously believed.

分析公司 Glassnode 強調，集中式加密貨幣交易所並沒有像之前認為的那樣失去比特幣（BTC）持有量。

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Showed Minimal Decrease

比特幣交易所儲備略為下降

The exchange balance, which measures the total amount of Bitcoin present in the wallets of centralized exchanges, has been a key topic of discussion within the on-chain analysis community.

交易餘額衡量中心化交易所錢包中存在的比特幣總量，一直是鏈上分析社群討論的關鍵議題。

Investors utilize these platforms for selling purposes, leading many to view the exchange balance as a reflection of the “available” trade supply of BTC.

投資者利用這些平台進行銷售，導致許多人將外匯餘額視為比特幣「可用」貿易供應的反映。

An interesting pattern has emerged regarding this supply on exchanges in recent years, with its value showing a continuous decline. This indicated that investors were consistently moving coins out of exchanges, reducing the potential sell supply of the cryptocurrency.

近年來，交易所的供應量出現了一個有趣的模式，其價值不斷下降。這表明投資者不斷將代幣移出交易所，從而減少了加密貨幣的潛在銷售供應。

Some members of the community observed this trend and suggested that Bitcoin was heading toward a supply shock. However, this idea faced opposition, as البعض questioned whether the outflows were a natural consequence of shifting market dynamics rather than a widespread shift toward HODLing.

社群的一些成員觀察到了這一趨勢，並認為比特幣正在走向供應衝擊。然而，這個想法遭到了反對，因為人們質疑資金外流是否是市場動態變化的自然結果，而不是普遍轉向持有的結果。

A recent modification by Glassnode to one of its indicators may have further challenged the supply shock theory. As noted by the analytics firm in its changelog, the Coinbase balance has been updated to include new entities.

Glassnode 最近對其一項指標的修改可能進一步挑戰了供應衝擊理論。正如分析公司在其變更日誌中指出的那樣，Coinbase 餘額已更新以包含新實體。

Previously, these labels were linked to Coinbase Custody in our database. We have, however, decided to do away with this distinction as differentiation from an on-chain perspective is not always clear.

先前，這些標籤已連結到我們資料庫中的 Coinbase Custody。然而，我們決定取消這種區別，因為從鏈上角度來看，差異並不總是清晰的。

The Coinbase Custody includes coins from large entities, such as spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hence, the result of this change is a significant increase in the Coinbase balance.

Coinbase 託管包括來自大型實體的代幣，例如現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF)。因此，這項變更的結果是 Coinbase 餘額顯著增加。

As shown in the chart below, while the exchange balance appeared to be sharply declining earlier, this modification has caused its value to move more or less sideways over the last few years.

如下圖所示，雖然早期外匯餘額似乎急劇下降，但這種變化導致其價值在過去幾年中或多或少橫向波動。

In an X post, on-chain analyst Checkmate also touched upon this topic. “Exchange balances are notoriously difficult to parse and monitor,” said the analyst. “They are an advanced metric, valuable only if you know what you're doing.”

在一篇 X 貼文中，鏈上分析師 Checkmate 也談到了這個話題。 「眾所周知，外匯餘額很難解析和監控，」這位分析師表示。 “它們是一種高級指標，只有當您知道自己在做什麼時才有價值。”

As Checkmate pointed out, the broader exchange balance chart has also appeared flat in recent years.

正如 Checkmate 指出的那樣，近年來更廣泛的外匯餘額圖表也顯得持平。

“Many folks who have been talking about endless outflows did not factor in the Bitcoin held by Coinbase custody,” noted Checkmate. In March 2020, total exchange balance was 3.146m BTC; today it is 2.968m.”

Checkmate 指出：“許多一直在談論無盡資金外流的人並沒有考慮到 Coinbase 託管的比特幣。” 2020年3月，交易總餘額為314.6萬BTC；今天是 2.968m。

There have still been net outflows since then, but the decrease is only 178k BTC, which isn't much in the grand scheme.

此後仍出現淨流出，但減少量僅為 178k BTC，這在宏偉計劃中並不算多。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,700, having gained over 2% over the past week.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格約為 62,700 美元，過去一周上漲超過 2%。