比特币交易所储备近年来仅略有下降

交易余额是衡量中心化交易所钱包中比特币总量的指标，一直是链上分析社区的热门话题。

Analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted that centralized cryptocurrency exchanges have not been losing their Bitcoin (BTC) holdings to the extent that was previously believed.

分析公司 Glassnode 强调，集中式加密货币交易所并没有像之前认为的那样失去比特币（BTC）持有量。

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Showed Minimal Decrease

比特币交易所储备略有下降

The exchange balance, which measures the total amount of Bitcoin present in the wallets of centralized exchanges, has been a key topic of discussion within the on-chain analysis community.

交易余额衡量中心化交易所钱包中存在的比特币总量，一直是链上分析社区讨论的一个关键话题。

Investors utilize these platforms for selling purposes, leading many to view the exchange balance as a reflection of the “available” trade supply of BTC.

投资者利用这些平台进行销售，导致许多人将外汇余额视为比特币“可用”贸易供应的反映。

An interesting pattern has emerged regarding this supply on exchanges in recent years, with its value showing a continuous decline. This indicated that investors were consistently moving coins out of exchanges, reducing the potential sell supply of the cryptocurrency.

近年来，交易所的供应量出现了一个有趣的模式，其价值不断下降。这表明投资者不断将代币移出交易所，从而减少了加密货币的潜在销售供应。

Some members of the community observed this trend and suggested that Bitcoin was heading toward a supply shock. However, this idea faced opposition, as البعض questioned whether the outflows were a natural consequence of shifting market dynamics rather than a widespread shift toward HODLing.

社区的一些成员观察到了这一趋势，并认为比特币正在走向供应冲击。然而，这一想法遭到了反对，因为人们质疑资金外流是否是市场动态变化的自然结果，而不是普遍转向持有的结果。

A recent modification by Glassnode to one of its indicators may have further challenged the supply shock theory. As noted by the analytics firm in its changelog, the Coinbase balance has been updated to include new entities.

Glassnode 最近对其一项指标的修改可能进一步挑战了供应冲击理论。正如分析公司在其变更日志中指出的那样，Coinbase 余额已更新以包含新实体。

Previously, these labels were linked to Coinbase Custody in our database. We have, however, decided to do away with this distinction as differentiation from an on-chain perspective is not always clear.

此前，这些标签已链接到我们数据库中的 Coinbase Custody。然而，我们决定取消这种区别，因为从链上角度来看，区别并不总是清晰的。

The Coinbase Custody includes coins from large entities, such as spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hence, the result of this change is a significant increase in the Coinbase balance.

Coinbase 托管包括来自大型实体的代币，例如现货交易所交易基金 (ETF)。因此，这一变化的结果是 Coinbase 余额显着增加。

As shown in the chart below, while the exchange balance appeared to be sharply declining earlier, this modification has caused its value to move more or less sideways over the last few years.

如下图所示，虽然早些时候外汇余额似乎急剧下降，但这种变化导致其价值在过去几年中或多或少横向波动。

In an X post, on-chain analyst Checkmate also touched upon this topic. “Exchange balances are notoriously difficult to parse and monitor,” said the analyst. “They are an advanced metric, valuable only if you know what you're doing.”

在一篇 X 帖子中，链上分析师 Checkmate 也谈到了这个话题。 “众所周知，外汇余额很难解析和监控，”这位分析师表示。 “它们是一种高级指标，只有当您知道自己在做什么时才有价值。”

As Checkmate pointed out, the broader exchange balance chart has also appeared flat in recent years.

正如 Checkmate 指出的那样，近年来更广泛的外汇余额图表也显得持平。

“Many folks who have been talking about endless outflows did not factor in the Bitcoin held by Coinbase custody,” noted Checkmate. In March 2020, total exchange balance was 3.146m BTC; today it is 2.968m.”

Checkmate 指出：“许多一直在谈论无尽资金外流的人并没有考虑到 Coinbase 托管的比特币。” 2020年3月，交易总余额为314.6万BTC；今天是 2.968m。”

There have still been net outflows since then, but the decrease is only 178k BTC, which isn't much in the grand scheme.

此后仍然出现净流出，但减少量仅为 178k BTC，这在宏伟计划中并不算多。

BTC Price

比特币价格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,700, having gained over 2% over the past week.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 62,700 美元，过去一周上涨超过 2%。