比特幣的價格搖搖欲墜接近$ 10萬美元，引發了雙重恐懼。機構的流量會提供支持，還是75％的崩潰在場？

Bitcoin's Double Top: Is a Price Crash Inevitable?

比特幣的雙頂：價格崩潰是不可避免的嗎？

Bitcoin is dancing near the $100,000 mark, leading some analysts to believe it may form a double top and be followed by a price crash. But are we really headed for a 75% plunge?

比特幣在$ 100,000的大關接近，導致一些分析師認為它可能會形成雙頂，然後發生價格崩潰。但是我們真的要去75％的人嗎？

Double Top Trouble?

雙頂麻煩？

Bitcoin spent considerable time trading between $100,000 and $110,000, which some analysts, like Peter Brandt, believe indicates that the uptrend that began in January is coming to an end. The double top comprises two peaks at roughly the same price (near $110,000), with a trendline through the low point between the peaks (around $75,000 in early April). A drop below $75,000 could trigger a crash to $27,000.

比特幣花了相當長的時間在100,000至110,000美元之間的交易，一些分析師（例如Peter Brandt）認為，這表明一月份開始的上升趨勢即將結束。雙頂以大致相同的價格（接近110,000美元）組成了兩個峰值，趨勢線經過峰值之間的低點（4月初約為75,000美元）。低於$ 75,000的跌幅可能會導致墜機事故至27,000美元。

Technical patterns can be self-fulfilling. Spotting a double top may cause traders to react in a way that reinforces the expected outcome.

技術模式可以是自我實現的。發現雙層頂可能會導致交易者做出反應，從而增強預期結果。

Institutional Flows: A Bullish Shield?

機構流動：看漲盾牌？

The current rally is primarily driven by institutional flows, with 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs debuting on the Nasdaq in January 2024. Corporate treasury adoption is also picking up, with 141 public companies holding over 841,000 BTC.

目前的集會主要由機構流動驅動，2024年1月在納斯達克省首次亮相11個位比特幣ETF。公司財政部的採用也正在加以接收，有141家持有841,000多名BTC的上市公司。

According to Vetle Lunde, Senior Analyst at K33 Research, the flows-driven nature of this bull run makes it more resilient than previous ones. Institutions do due diligence and risk assessment before adding Bitcoin to their portfolios, which means their allocation is for the long term. According to Lunde, this trend of sticky institutional allocation is just beginning, and the resulting demand will provide price support for some time to come. Lunde also explained that these investment vehicles are sucking liquidity out of the market, and every time a new big-ticket investor hits the market with bids, this is addressing less and less supply, and the bullish impact on prices becomes more pronounced.

根據K33 Research的高級分析師Vetle Lunde的說法，這種公牛奔跑的流動性質使其比以前的彈性更具彈性。機構在將比特幣添加到其投資組合中之前進行盡職調查和風險評估，這意味著他們的分配是長期的。根據倫德的說法，這種粘性機構分配的趨勢才剛剛開始，由此產生的需求將在未來的一段時間內提供價格支持。隆德還解釋說，這些投資工具正在從市場上吸收流動性，每當新的大型投資者以競標方式打入市場時，這會解決越來越少，對價格的看漲影響就會變得更加明顯。

Halving Hype or Hot Air?

減半還是熱空氣？

The bearish double-top crash scenario seems plausible because we are in the post-halving year, which has historically marked bull market tops. Halving is a programmed code in Bitcoin's blockchain that reduces the pace of BTC supply expansion by 50% every four years. The last halving occurred in April 2024 and reduced the per-block BTC reward to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

看跌雙頂崩潰的情況似乎是合理的，因為我們處於後期的一年，歷史上一直標誌著牛市的頂級。減半是比特幣區塊鏈中的編程代碼，可將BTC供應量擴展的速度降低每四年50％。最後一半發生在2024年4月，將每塊BTC獎勵從6.25 BTC減少到3.125 BTC。

The halving cycle may not unfold as expected, as sticky institutional adoption has a greater bearing on price than miners. BTC sold by miners now accounts for a tiny percentage of the average daily trading volume. The change in market leadership means the four-year halving cycle may not play out as it did before. Earlier, most BTC holders were miners, and the BTC issued per year was a huge percentage of the outstanding bitcoin supply. So, selling pressure from miners mattered greatly to the market price. Now, the BTC mined is 0.05-0.1% of the average BTC daily trading volume and halving this supply has no impact on the supply/demand balance in the market.

減半週期可能不會像預期的那樣展開，因為粘性機構採用的價格比礦工更大。現在，礦工出售的BTC現在占平均每日交易量的一小部分。市場領導力的變化意味著四年的減半週期可能不會像以前那樣發揮作用。早些時候，大多數BTC持有人都是礦工，每年發布的BTC是未償還比特幣供應的很大一部分。因此，銷售礦工的壓力非常重要，至關重要。現在，BTC開采的是平均BTC每日交易量的0.05-0.1％，並將此供應減半對市場的供求餘額沒有影響。

So, Crash or Cash?

那麼，崩潰還是現金？

While technical indicators might flash warning signs, the fundamental shift towards institutional adoption offers a robust counter-narrative. A black swan event, like the Terra or FTX collapse, would be required to trigger a full-blown crash. Barring that, we could see a prolonged bull cycle.

儘管技術指標可能會閃爍警告標誌，但向機構採用的基本轉變提供了強大的反敘事。像Terra或FTX崩潰這樣的黑天鵝事件需要觸發成熟的墜機。除此之外，我們可以看到長時間的公牛循環。

Of course, Bitcoin's price could go up, down, or sideways. After all, crypto never ceases to be interesting, right?

當然，比特幣的價格可能會上升，下降或側面。畢竟，加密永遠不會停止有趣，對嗎？