比特币的价格摇摇欲坠接近$ 10万美元，引发了双重恐惧。机构的流量会提供支持，还是75％的崩溃在场？

Bitcoin's Double Top: Is a Price Crash Inevitable?

比特币的双顶：价格崩溃是不可避免的吗？

Bitcoin is dancing near the $100,000 mark, leading some analysts to believe it may form a double top and be followed by a price crash. But are we really headed for a 75% plunge?

比特币在$ 100,000的大关接近，导致一些分析师认为它可能会形成双顶，然后发生价格崩溃。但是我们真的要去75％的人吗？

Double Top Trouble?

双顶麻烦？

Bitcoin spent considerable time trading between $100,000 and $110,000, which some analysts, like Peter Brandt, believe indicates that the uptrend that began in January is coming to an end. The double top comprises two peaks at roughly the same price (near $110,000), with a trendline through the low point between the peaks (around $75,000 in early April). A drop below $75,000 could trigger a crash to $27,000.

比特币花了相当长的时间在100,000至110,000美元之间的交易，一些分析师（例如Peter Brandt）认为，这表明一月份开始的上升趋势即将结束。双顶以大致相同的价格（接近110,000美元）组成了两个峰值，趋势线经过峰值之间的低点（4月初约为75,000美元）。低于$ 75,000的跌幅可能会导致坠机事故至27,000美元。

Technical patterns can be self-fulfilling. Spotting a double top may cause traders to react in a way that reinforces the expected outcome.

技术模式可以是自我实现的。发现双层顶可能会导致交易者做出反应，从而增强预期结果。

Institutional Flows: A Bullish Shield?

机构流动：看涨盾牌？

The current rally is primarily driven by institutional flows, with 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs debuting on the Nasdaq in January 2024. Corporate treasury adoption is also picking up, with 141 public companies holding over 841,000 BTC.

目前的集会主要由机构流动驱动，2024年1月在纳斯达克省首次亮相11个位比特币ETF。公司财政部的采用也正在加以接收，有141家持有841,000多名BTC的上市公司。

According to Vetle Lunde, Senior Analyst at K33 Research, the flows-driven nature of this bull run makes it more resilient than previous ones. Institutions do due diligence and risk assessment before adding Bitcoin to their portfolios, which means their allocation is for the long term. According to Lunde, this trend of sticky institutional allocation is just beginning, and the resulting demand will provide price support for some time to come. Lunde also explained that these investment vehicles are sucking liquidity out of the market, and every time a new big-ticket investor hits the market with bids, this is addressing less and less supply, and the bullish impact on prices becomes more pronounced.

根据K33 Research的高级分析师Vetle Lunde的说法，这种公牛奔跑的流动性质使其比以前的弹性更具弹性。机构在将比特币添加到其投资组合中之前进行尽职调查和风险评估，这意味着他们的分配是长期的。根据伦德的说法，这种粘性机构分配的趋势才刚刚开始，由此产生的需求将在未来的一段时间内提供价格支持。隆德还解释说，这些投资工具正在从市场上吸收流动性，每当新的大型投资者以竞标方式打入市场时，这会解决越来越少，对价格的看涨影响就会变得更加明显。

Halving Hype or Hot Air?

减半还是热空气？

The bearish double-top crash scenario seems plausible because we are in the post-halving year, which has historically marked bull market tops. Halving is a programmed code in Bitcoin's blockchain that reduces the pace of BTC supply expansion by 50% every four years. The last halving occurred in April 2024 and reduced the per-block BTC reward to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

看跌双顶崩溃的情况似乎是合理的，因为我们处于后期的一年，历史上标志着牛市的顶级。减半是比特币区块链中的编程代码，可将BTC供应量扩展的速度降低每四年50％。最后一半发生在2024年4月，将每块BTC奖励从6.25 BTC减少到3.125 BTC。

The halving cycle may not unfold as expected, as sticky institutional adoption has a greater bearing on price than miners. BTC sold by miners now accounts for a tiny percentage of the average daily trading volume. The change in market leadership means the four-year halving cycle may not play out as it did before. Earlier, most BTC holders were miners, and the BTC issued per year was a huge percentage of the outstanding bitcoin supply. So, selling pressure from miners mattered greatly to the market price. Now, the BTC mined is 0.05-0.1% of the average BTC daily trading volume and halving this supply has no impact on the supply/demand balance in the market.

减半周期可能不会像预期的那样展开，因为粘性机构采用的价格比矿工更大。现在，矿工出售的BTC现在占平均每日交易量的一小部分。市场领导力的变化意味着四年的减半周期可能不会像以前那样发挥作用。早些时候，大多数BTC持有人都是矿工，每年发布的BTC是未偿还比特币供应的很大一部分。因此，销售矿工的压力非常重要，至关重要。现在，BTC开采的是平均BTC每日交易量的0.05-0.1％，并将此供应减半对市场的供求余额没有影响。

So, Crash or Cash?

那么，崩溃还是现金？

While technical indicators might flash warning signs, the fundamental shift towards institutional adoption offers a robust counter-narrative. A black swan event, like the Terra or FTX collapse, would be required to trigger a full-blown crash. Barring that, we could see a prolonged bull cycle.

尽管技术指标可能会闪烁警告标志，但向机构采用的基本转变提供了强大的反叙事。像Terra或FTX崩溃这样的黑天鹅事件需要触发成熟的坠机。除此之外，我们可以看到长时间的公牛循环。

Of course, Bitcoin's price could go up, down, or sideways. After all, crypto never ceases to be interesting, right?

当然，比特币的价格可能会上升，下降或侧面。毕竟，加密永远不会停止有趣，对吗？