比特幣：衍生品市場滯後，隨著現場拉力賽的加強

儘管最近的比特幣集會得到了現貨市場的強烈支持，但衍生品市場的交易商的調整速度較慢。

The recent Bitcoin (BTC) rally has been largely driven by strong demand in the spot market, while traders in the derivatives markets appear to be adjusting more slowly to the shifting market dynamics.

最近的比特幣（BTC）集會主要是由於現貨市場的強勁需求所驅動的，而衍生品市場的交易者似乎對變化的市場動態的調整較慢。

One of the key indicators to gauge sentiment in the derivatives space is the open interest (OI) in perpetual futures markets, typically denominated in BTC. By tracking the weekly changes in OI across major platforms, we can observe whether speculators were caught off guard by price movements.

衡量衍生品空間中情感情緒的關鍵指標之一是永久期貨市場的開放興趣（OI），通常以BTC計數。通過跟踪跨主要平台的OI的每週變化，我們可以觀察到投機者是否因價格變動而措手不及。

Since January 2025, the OI metric has proven useful in pinpointing moments when market participants were surprised by Bitcoin’s direction. For instance, during the descent below $80k, OI contracted by over 10% each week, signifying that over-leveraged long positions were being liquidated as prices approached liquidation levels.

自2025年1月以來，OI指標已被證明在指出市場參與者對比特幣的方向感到驚訝的時刻很有用。例如，在低於$ 80K的下降期間，OI每週收縮超過10％，這表明隨著價格接近清算水平，過度槓桿率的長位置正在清算。

In contrast, a similar dynamic unfolded during the recent rally above $90k, with OI contracting again. However, this time, the contraction indicated a short-side squeeze.

相比之下，在最近的90,000美元以上的集會中，類似的動態展開，OI再次收縮。但是，這次收縮表明短側擠壓。

(Chart: Glassnode)

（圖表：玻璃節）

These “shakeouts,” where excessive leverage is purged, are common in the early stages of a new market trend. The short squeeze in particular suggests that the rally has largely eliminated any remaining overly pessimistic positioning, setting the stage for a healthier trajectory for further upward movement.

在新市場趨勢的早期階段，這些“搖動”（在槓桿率過多的地方被清除）很常見。尤其是短暫的擠壓表明，集會在很大程度上消除了任何過分的悲觀定位，為更健康的軌跡奠定了基礎，以進一步向上移動。

As short positions were flushed out, futures open interest decreased by 10%, sliding from 370k BTC to 336k BTC. This reduction provides insight into the magnitude of the short squeeze and reduces the potential for a sudden deleveraging event, which would otherwise contribute to heightened volatility in the near term.

隨著短期職位的沖洗，期貨開放利息下降了10％，從370k BTC下滑至336K BTC。這種減少提供了對短擠壓的大小的見識，並降低了突然的去槓桿化事件的潛力，否則這將在短期內有助於提高波動性。

Another crucial indicator of market sentiment in the derivatives space is the funding rate, which reflects the directional bias of perpetual futures markets. Despite the bullish price action in recent weeks, the funding rate remained remarkably neutral, implying that leveraged long positions are not yet excessive.

衍生品領域市場情緒的另一個關鍵指標是資金率，這反映了永久期貨市場的定向偏見。儘管最近幾週的看漲價格行動，但籌資率仍然非常中立，這意味著利用長期職位尚未過多。

Since late April, funding rates have been gradually recovering, now stabilizing around 0.007% (roughly 7.6% annually). This positive shift denotes a healthy appetite for long positions without an overbearing presence, indicating a stable outlook in the derivatives market.

自4月下旬以來，資金率逐漸恢復，現在穩定在0.007％左右（每年約7.6％）。這種積極的轉變表示對長位置的健康食慾，而沒有霸道的存在，表明衍生品市場的前景穩定。

Options Market: A Growing Optimism

期權市場：越來越樂觀

Further insight into market sentiment can be gleaned from options market data, specifically the 1-Month 25 Delta Skew. This metric measures the disparity in implied volatility (IV) between 25-delta puts and 25-delta calls. A negative skew indicates that calls are pricier than puts, usually suggesting a more aggressive stance on upside movement—a sign of bullish sentiment.

可以從期權市場數據，特別是1個月的25 Delta偏斜中收集到對市場情緒的進一步見解。該指標衡量了25-Delta puts和25-Delta呼叫之間隱含波動率（IV）的差異。負偏斜表明呼叫比觀點更昂貴，通常表明對上行運動的立場更具侵略性，這是看漲情緒的標誌。

Currently, the 25 Delta Skew (1M) stands at -6.1%, implying that call options are more expensive than put options. This shift toward risk-on behavior reflects a growing bullish speculation in the options market.

目前，25個Delta偏斜（1M）為-6.1％，這意味著該通話選項比PUT選項昂貴。向風險行為行為的轉變反映了期權市場上的看漲猜測。

While not a definitive indicator, sustained negative skew, especially following a significant price increase, is a sign of rising optimism.

雖然不是確定的指標，但持續的負偏斜，尤其是在大幅上漲之後，這是樂觀興趣的跡象。

For the options market to align with the bullish dynamics in the spot market, we would want to see the skew remain below or around neutral. This would further strengthen confidence in the strength of the rally.

為了使期權市場與現貨市場中的看漲動態保持一致，我們希望看到偏斜在中立下方或周圍保持不變。這將進一步增強對集會力量的信心。