比特币：衍生品市场滞后，随着现场拉力赛的加强

尽管最近的比特币集会得到了现货市场的强烈支持，但衍生品市场的交易商的调整速度较慢。

The recent Bitcoin (BTC) rally has been largely driven by strong demand in the spot market, while traders in the derivatives markets appear to be adjusting more slowly to the shifting market dynamics.

最近的比特币（BTC）集会主要是由于现货市场的强劲需求所驱动的，而衍生品市场的交易者似乎对变化的市场动态的调整较慢。

One of the key indicators to gauge sentiment in the derivatives space is the open interest (OI) in perpetual futures markets, typically denominated in BTC. By tracking the weekly changes in OI across major platforms, we can observe whether speculators were caught off guard by price movements.

衡量衍生品空间中情感情绪的关键指标之一是永久期货市场的开放兴趣（OI），通常以BTC计数。通过跟踪跨主要平台的OI的每周变化，我们可以观察到投机者是否因价格变动而措手不及。

Since January 2025, the OI metric has proven useful in pinpointing moments when market participants were surprised by Bitcoin’s direction. For instance, during the descent below $80k, OI contracted by over 10% each week, signifying that over-leveraged long positions were being liquidated as prices approached liquidation levels.

自2025年1月以来，OI指标已被证明在指出市场参与者对比特币的方向感到惊讶的时刻很有用。例如，在低于$ 80K的下降期间，OI每周收缩超过10％，这表明随着价格接近清算水平，过度杠杆率的长位置正在清算。

In contrast, a similar dynamic unfolded during the recent rally above $90k, with OI contracting again. However, this time, the contraction indicated a short-side squeeze.

相比之下，在最近的90,000美元以上的集会中，类似的动态展开，OI再次收缩。但是，这次收缩表明短侧挤压。

(Chart: Glassnode)

（图表：玻璃节）

These “shakeouts,” where excessive leverage is purged, are common in the early stages of a new market trend. The short squeeze in particular suggests that the rally has largely eliminated any remaining overly pessimistic positioning, setting the stage for a healthier trajectory for further upward movement.

在新市场趋势的早期阶段，这些“摇动”（在杠杆率过多的地方被清除）很常见。尤其是短暂的挤压表明，集会在很大程度上消除了任何过分的悲观定位，为更健康的轨迹奠定了基础，以进一步向上移动。

As short positions were flushed out, futures open interest decreased by 10%, sliding from 370k BTC to 336k BTC. This reduction provides insight into the magnitude of the short squeeze and reduces the potential for a sudden deleveraging event, which would otherwise contribute to heightened volatility in the near term.

随着短期职位的冲洗，期货开放利息下降了10％，从370k BTC下滑至336K BTC。这种减少提供了对短挤压的大小的见识，并降低了突然的去杠杆化事件的潜力，否则这将在短期内有助于提高波动性。

Another crucial indicator of market sentiment in the derivatives space is the funding rate, which reflects the directional bias of perpetual futures markets. Despite the bullish price action in recent weeks, the funding rate remained remarkably neutral, implying that leveraged long positions are not yet excessive.

衍生品领域市场情绪的另一个关键指标是资金率，这反映了永久期货市场的定向偏见。尽管最近几周的看涨价格行动，但筹资率仍然非常中立，这意味着利用长期职位尚未过多。

Since late April, funding rates have been gradually recovering, now stabilizing around 0.007% (roughly 7.6% annually). This positive shift denotes a healthy appetite for long positions without an overbearing presence, indicating a stable outlook in the derivatives market.

自4月下旬以来，资金率逐渐恢复，现在稳定在0.007％左右（每年约7.6％）。这种积极的转变表示对长位置的健康食欲，而没有霸道的存在，表明衍生品市场的前景稳定。

Options Market: A Growing Optimism

期权市场：越来越乐观

Further insight into market sentiment can be gleaned from options market data, specifically the 1-Month 25 Delta Skew. This metric measures the disparity in implied volatility (IV) between 25-delta puts and 25-delta calls. A negative skew indicates that calls are pricier than puts, usually suggesting a more aggressive stance on upside movement—a sign of bullish sentiment.

可以从期权市场数据，特别是1个月的25 Delta偏斜中收集到对市场情绪的进一步见解。该指标衡量了25-Delta puts和25-Delta呼叫之间隐含波动率（IV）的差异。负偏斜表明呼叫比观点更昂贵，通常表明对上行运动的立场更具侵略性，这是看涨情绪的标志。

Currently, the 25 Delta Skew (1M) stands at -6.1%, implying that call options are more expensive than put options. This shift toward risk-on behavior reflects a growing bullish speculation in the options market.

目前，25个Delta偏斜（1M）为-6.1％，这意味着该通话选项比PUT选项昂贵。向风险行为行为的转变反映了期权市场上的看涨猜测。

While not a definitive indicator, sustained negative skew, especially following a significant price increase, is a sign of rising optimism.

虽然不是确定的指标，但持续的负偏斜，尤其是在大幅上涨之后，这是乐观兴趣的迹象。

For the options market to align with the bullish dynamics in the spot market, we would want to see the skew remain below or around neutral. This would further strengthen confidence in the strength of the rally.

为了使期权市场与现货市场中的看涨动态保持一致，我们希望看到偏斜在中立下方或周围保持不变。这将进一步增强对集会力量的信心。