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在其大部分歷史中,比特幣(加密:BTC)被認為是資產上的最終“風險”。它是高度揮發性的,容易出現繁榮的周期。
The price of (CRYPTO: BTC) has come a long way since the beginning of the year. After falling to lows of around $15,000 in March, the cryptocurrency has since rebounded to levels above $50,000.
自今年年初以來(加密:BTC)的價格已經很長了。在3月下降到15,000美元左右的低點之後,加密貨幣從那以後的水平超過50,000美元。
At the same time, the global economy has been hit by a series of new shocks, including the threat of new tariffs on Chinese goods. The announcement of these tariffs in May sparked a massive rally in the price of gold, which many investors view as the ultimate safe haven asset.
同時,全球經濟受到一系列新的衝擊,包括對中國商品的新關稅的威脅。這些關稅在5月的宣布引發了大量的黃金,許多投資者將其視為最終的避風港資產。
However, there is another asset class that could be even better suited to serve as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty: Bitcoin.
但是,還有另一個資產類別可以更適合於對沖經濟和地緣政治不確定性:比特幣。
The unique characteristics of Bitcoin
比特幣的獨特特徵
The Bitcoin currency is global, digital, decentralized, and non-sovereign. The supply of new Bitcoin is carefully controlled by an algorithm, and no central bank or sovereign government can change this.
比特幣貨幣是全球,數字,分散和非主持人的。新比特幣的供應由算法仔細控制,沒有中央銀行或主權政府可以改變這一點。
Moreover, the total lifetime supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, and nearly 20 million coins are already in circulation. This inherent scarcity is further reduced every four years, when Bitcoin undergoes a halving event. This event, which is also controlled algorithmically, is inherently disinflationary, because it cuts the rate of new Bitcoin supply in half.
此外,比特幣的總終身供應限額為2100萬個硬幣,並且已經在發行近2000萬個硬幣。當比特幣發生一半的事件時,這種固有的稀缺性每四年進一步減少。該事件也是從算法上控制的,它本質上是釋放的,因為它將新的比特幣供應量減少了一半。
Image source: Getty Images.
圖像來源:蓋蒂圖像。
Crypto enthusiasts have declared for more than a decade that, as a result of these characteristics, Bitcoin should be considered “digital gold.” And this argument is finally starting to go mainstream. If you dive deep enough into different Bitcoin valuation models used by top institutional investors, you’ll often find a proxy metric that takes into account the digital gold thesis.
加密愛好者已經宣布了十多年,由於這些特徵,比特幣應被視為“數字黃金”。這個論點終於開始成為主流。如果您深入研究了頂級機構投資者使用的不同比特幣評估模型,您通常會發現一個考慮數字黃金論文的代理指標。
For example, in its current Bitcoin valuation model, Ark Invest uses a metric called Digital Gold. This takes into account the total market cap of physical gold, and then projects a “penetration rate” for Bitcoin. In its bull-case scenario, this penetration rate is 60%.
例如,在當前的比特幣估值模型中,方舟投資使用了名為Digital Gold的度量。這考慮了實物黃金的總市值,然後預測比特幣的“滲透率”。在牛場的情況下,這種滲透率為60%。
This would leave the Bitcoin price at around $2.4 million by 2030, which might sound like a ridiculously high price target. But it's not as though such price targets have never been mentioned before. In fact, a price target of $500,000 might actually be on the low side. There are plenty of price forecasts out there suggesting that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030.
到2030年,這將使比特幣價格約為240萬美元,這聽起來可能是一個荒謬的價格目標。但這似乎不是以前從未提及過這樣的目標目標。實際上,實際上可能是500,000美元的目標目標。那裡有很多價格預測,表明比特幣到2030年可能達到100萬美元。
This would also leave Bitcoin with a market cap of around $50 trillion, which is about double the current size of the U.S. stock market.
這也將使比特幣的市值約為500萬億美元,這是美國股市目前規模的兩倍。
Of course, there are no guarantees here that Bitcoin will ever hit such a high price target, and the time frame could be long. But if we assume that Bitcoin will account for 50% of the “store of value” market, then we can use a scaling factor of 0.5 to arrive at an implied valuation of $10 trillion for Bitcoin. When we divide that valuation by the number of coins outstanding (approximately 20 million), that leads to a theoretical Bitcoin price target of $500,000.
當然,這裡沒有保證比特幣會達到如此高的價格目標,並且時間範圍可能很長。但是,如果我們假設比特幣將佔“價值存儲”市場的50%,那麼我們可以使用0.5的比例係數來獲得比特幣的暗示估值。當我們將該估值除以未償還的硬幣數量(約2000萬個),這將導致理論上的比特幣目標價值為500,000美元。
This is also a multiple of the price target suggested by macroeconomic analysis. For example, in a recent note, economists at Standard Chartered pointed out that the dollar value of the world's foreign exchange reserves currently stands at around $10 trillion.
這也是宏觀經濟分析建議的目標目標的倍數。例如,在最近的一份說明中,標準特許的經濟學家指出,世界外匯儲備的美元價值目前約為10萬億美元。
Now, if we assume that a portion of these reserves, say, $5 trillion, might shift into cryptocurrencies as a hedge against dollar-denominated market risk, we can arrive at a price target for Bitcoin of around $250,000. This price target is valid as long as the aggregate market cap of the major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.) converges to about 20 million coins.
現在,如果我們假設其中一部分這些儲備金(例如5萬億美元)可能會轉向加密貨幣作為對沖以美元計價的市場風險的對沖,那麼我們可以將比特幣的目標價格定為25萬美元。只要主要加密貨幣(比特幣,以太坊,Litecoin等)匯聚到大約2000萬個硬幣的總市值,這個價格目標是有效的。
If the current tariff situation worsens, and money continues to flow out of dollar-denominated assets, some of that money is almost certainly going to flow into Bitcoin.
如果當前的關稅情況惡化,並且金錢繼續從以美元計價的資產流出,那麼其中一些錢幾乎可以肯定會流向比特幣。
So, in a strange and surprising way, tariff uncertainty might continue to push the price of Bitcoin higher this year. The cryptocurrency is finally earning its proposed status as an effective hedge against dollar-based market risks.
因此,以一種奇怪而令人驚訝的方式,關稅的不確定性可能會繼續推動今年更高的比特幣價格。加密貨幣終於贏得了對基於美元市場風險的有效對沖的擬議地位。
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