比特幣越過臨界閾值，因為投機性激增推動了價格上漲

在投機性激增的驅動下，比特幣越過關鍵閾值，而全球市場保持緊張。

Driven by a speculative surge, bitcoin crosses critical thresholds while global markets remain tense. Indeed, on-chain analysis reveals a sudden acceleration in the “hot supply”, these freshly moved bitcoins that indicate the arrival of new short-term players. The signal is strong, and the momentum is powerful. However, behind the bullish surge, a question remains: is this rise based on solid foundations or on fragile enthusiasm?

在投機性激增的驅動下，比特幣越過關鍵閾值，而全球市場保持緊張。確實，鏈分析揭示了“熱供應”突然加速，這些新鮮移動的比特幣表明了新的短期參與者的到來。信號很強，動力很強大。但是，在看漲的激增背後，仍然存在一個問題：這是基於堅實的基礎還是脆弱的熱情上升？

The so-called “hot” supply of bitcoin, referring to units moved during the last week, now reaches nearly $40 billion, its highest level since February. This volume is a measure of the activity of short-term holders and serves as a proxy for the influx of speculative capital into the market.

所謂的“熱”比特幣供應，指的是上週移動的單位，現在達到了近400億美元，這是自2月以來的最高水平。該卷是對短期持有人活動的衡量標準，是投機資本湧入市場的代理。

This development marks a spectacular acceleration of speculative activity, fueled by the rise of the bitcoin price toward $95,000.

這一發展標誌著投機活動的壯觀加速，這是由於比特幣價格上漲至95,000美元。

The data reveal a particularly important dynamic:

數據揭示了一個特別重要的動態：

This speculative frenzy reflects the tendency of new entrants to react quickly to bullish signals. However, this excitement raises questions about the strength of this recovery, as experienced investors scrutinize the robustness of the underlying fundamentals.

這種投機性的瘋狂反映了新進入者迅速對看漲信號做出反應的趨勢。但是，這種興奮引發了人們對這種恢復力量的疑問，因為經驗豐富的投資者仔細檢查了基本基本面的穩健性。

While the influx of fresh capital gives the feeling of a market in full revival, analysis firm Glassnode tempers this enthusiasm. It notes that “on-chain activity, such as transfer volume and transaction fees, is in a recovery phase, but the number of daily active addresses is still low”.

雖然新鮮資本的湧入使市場的感覺充滿了復興，但分析公司玻璃節點脾氣使這種熱情如此。它指出：“鏈接活動（例如轉移量和交易費用）處於恢復階段，但每日活動地址的數量仍然很少”。

In other words, organic user engagement on the Bitcoin network remains low, far from the levels seen during historical bull cycles. The analysis also highlights that despite visible progress on indicators such as Percent Supply in Profit (86%) and NUPL (0.53), the fundamentals do not yet indicate a fully engaged market.

換句話說，比特幣網絡上的有機用戶參與度仍然很低，遠離歷史牛週期的水平。該分析還強調，儘管在供應百分比（86％）和NUPL（0.53）等指標上有明顯的進展，但基本面尚未表明完全參與的市場。

This dissociation between speculation and network activity invites caution. While early FOMO (“Fear Of Missing Out”) signals begin to appear, there is a real risk that this adrenaline rush may be followed by a slowdown if long-term investor interest does not materialize. The market could then be exposed to false recoveries that trap new entrants before a sharp reversal.

投機和網絡活動之間的這種解離引起了謹慎。儘管早期的FOMO（“害怕失踪”）信號開始出現，但如果長期投資者的興趣不實現，則可能會有這種腎上腺素急促的風險會放緩。然後，市場可以暴露於虛假的恢復中，這些恢復將使新進入者陷入急劇的逆轉。

In the short term, the evolution of on-chain activity will be decisive in judging the strength of the ongoing movement. If the increase in active addresses and the sustained growth of transaction volumes confirm rising interest in bitcoin, a true bullish cycle could take hold. Otherwise, the current speculative surge may quickly prove ephemeral, leading to an equally brutal correction.

在短期內，鏈上活動的演變將決定判斷正在進行的運動的力量。如果主動地址的增加和交易量的持續增長證實了對比特幣的興趣的上升，那麼真正的看漲週期就可以得出。否則，當前的投機激增可能會迅速證明短暫，導致同樣殘酷的校正。