比特币越过临界阈值，因为投机性激增推动了价格上涨

在投机性激增的驱动下，比特币越过关键阈值，而全球市场保持紧张。

Driven by a speculative surge, bitcoin crosses critical thresholds while global markets remain tense. Indeed, on-chain analysis reveals a sudden acceleration in the “hot supply”, these freshly moved bitcoins that indicate the arrival of new short-term players. The signal is strong, and the momentum is powerful. However, behind the bullish surge, a question remains: is this rise based on solid foundations or on fragile enthusiasm?

在投机性激增的驱动下，比特币越过关键阈值，而全球市场保持紧张。确实，链分析揭示了“热供应”突然加速，这些新鲜移动的比特币表明了新的短期参与者的到来。信号很强，动力很强大。但是，在看涨的激增背后，仍然存在一个问题：这是基于坚实的基础还是脆弱的热情上升？

The so-called “hot” supply of bitcoin, referring to units moved during the last week, now reaches nearly $40 billion, its highest level since February. This volume is a measure of the activity of short-term holders and serves as a proxy for the influx of speculative capital into the market.

所谓的“热”比特币供应，指的是上周移动的单位，现在达到了近400亿美元，这是自2月以来的最高水平。该卷是对短期持有人活动的衡量标准，是投机资本涌入市场的代理。

This development marks a spectacular acceleration of speculative activity, fueled by the rise of the bitcoin price toward $95,000.

这一发展标志着投机活动的壮观加速，这是由于比特币价格上涨至95,000美元。

The data reveal a particularly important dynamic:

数据揭示了一个特别重要的动态：

This speculative frenzy reflects the tendency of new entrants to react quickly to bullish signals. However, this excitement raises questions about the strength of this recovery, as experienced investors scrutinize the robustness of the underlying fundamentals.

这种投机性的疯狂反映了新进入者迅速对看涨信号做出反应的趋势。但是，这种兴奋引发了人们对这种恢复力量的疑问，因为经验丰富的投资者仔细检查了基本基本面的稳健性。

While the influx of fresh capital gives the feeling of a market in full revival, analysis firm Glassnode tempers this enthusiasm. It notes that “on-chain activity, such as transfer volume and transaction fees, is in a recovery phase, but the number of daily active addresses is still low”.

虽然新鲜资本的涌入使市场的感觉充满了复兴，但分析公司玻璃节点脾气使这种热情如此。它指出：“链接活动（例如转移量和交易费用）处于恢复阶段，但每日活动地址的数量仍然很少”。

In other words, organic user engagement on the Bitcoin network remains low, far from the levels seen during historical bull cycles. The analysis also highlights that despite visible progress on indicators such as Percent Supply in Profit (86%) and NUPL (0.53), the fundamentals do not yet indicate a fully engaged market.

换句话说，比特币网络上的有机用户参与度仍然很低，远离历史牛周期的水平。该分析还强调，尽管在供应百分比（86％）和NUPL（0.53）等指标上有明显的进展，但基本面尚未表明完全参与的市场。

This dissociation between speculation and network activity invites caution. While early FOMO (“Fear Of Missing Out”) signals begin to appear, there is a real risk that this adrenaline rush may be followed by a slowdown if long-term investor interest does not materialize. The market could then be exposed to false recoveries that trap new entrants before a sharp reversal.

投机和网络活动之间的这种解离引起了谨慎。尽管早期的FOMO（“害怕失踪”）信号开始出现，但如果长期投资者的兴趣不实现，则可能会有这种肾上腺素急促的风险会放缓。然后，市场可以暴露于虚假的恢复中，这些恢复将使新进入者陷入急剧的逆转。

In the short term, the evolution of on-chain activity will be decisive in judging the strength of the ongoing movement. If the increase in active addresses and the sustained growth of transaction volumes confirm rising interest in bitcoin, a true bullish cycle could take hold. Otherwise, the current speculative surge may quickly prove ephemeral, leading to an equally brutal correction.

在短期内，链上活动的演变将决定判断正在进行的运动的力量。如果主动地址的增加和交易量的持续增长证实了对比特币的兴趣的上升，那么真正的看涨周期就可以得出。否则，当前的投机激增可能会迅速证明短暂，导致同样残酷的校正。