比特幣（BTC/USD）和加密貨幣一直是第1天的猜測？好吧，我的騙局破裂了，是時候使用我的b/s檢測器了

我已經將比特幣（BTC/USD）和加密貨幣視為從第1天開始的不同程度的猜測？好吧，一旦NFT/Crypto無人機開始喜歡，

I have viewed Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Crypto in general as a speculation to varying degrees from day 1. NFT? Well, as soon as NFT/Crypto drones started liking, following and glad-handing me (@NFTRHgt) on what was then Twitter simply because of three letters in the abbreviated name of my service (Notes From the Rabbit Hole), my Scam-O-Meter red-lined and broke. “Meme Coins”?

我已經將比特幣（BTC/USD）和加密貨幣視為從第1天開始的不同程度的猜測？好吧，一旦NFT/Crypto無人機開始喜歡，跟隨並高興地對我（@nftrhgt）在Twitter上（@nftrhgt），僅僅是因為我服務的縮寫名稱中的三個字母（兔子洞的筆記），我的Scam-O-O-Meter紅色襯衫紅色襯托和破產。 “模因硬幣”？

Well, I told you my Scam-O-Meter broke, so I’ll use my B/S Detector instead to take a look at the Crypto sphere vs. XAU/USD.

好吧，我告訴過你我的騙局米米破裂了，所以我會用我的b/s檢測器來看看加密球體與XAU/USD。

Crypto and especially its speculative outer edges are logical components of the massive array of investments and speculations alike that have been exponentially boosted by the decades-long bubble in monetary and fiscal policies designed to inflate asset prices at all costs. The Fed and the government are working from different angles on the same street.

加密貨幣，尤其是其投機性外邊緣是一系列大量投資和猜測的邏輯組成部分，這是由於數十年來的貨幣和財政政策中旨在以所有費用膨脹資產價格的貨幣和財政政策的成倍增強的。美聯儲和政府正在同一條街上從不同角度工作。

It is a bubble now indicated to be ending (if it’s not already blown) due to a ton of indicators we’ve tracked over the last year+ and in the case of the 30-year Treasury yield “Continuum”, since its big time trend break in 2022. Here is the not-so-pretty picture * , although details on this and other macro indicators are beyond the scope of this article.

由於我們在過去一年+中所追踪的大量指標，並且在30年的國庫生產收益“連續體”的情況下，它已經結束了（如果還沒有爆炸），因為它在2022年的時間趨勢很大。這是不實前的圖片 *，儘管這是不太樸實的圖片 *，儘管詳細介紹了這本文章的詳細信息。

* Unless you, like I, are a macro market nerd.

*除非您像我一樣，都是宏觀市場書呆子。

The general Crypto story that the public finds so engaging is actually quite compelling; technology and its unlimited power (unless someone trips over the plug), art/design and meme-centric creativity combine to theoretically set one free from the tyranny of the Central Banking system and the trampy debt notes of currency at its core.

公眾發現如此吸引人的一般加密故事實際上是非常引人注目的。技術及其無限的力量（除非有人在插頭上絆倒），藝術/設計和以模因的創造力結合了理論上使一個擺脫了中央銀行系統的暴政以及其核心貨幣的流浪漢債務。

Folks, the bubble is hitting its Zenith. It’s a play. Go ahead and play if you will. But understand that you are speculating, not investing (and you are not one of these 58 wallets ).

伙計們，泡沫正在擊中其頂峰。這是一部戲。如果願意的話，繼續玩。但是請了解您正在猜測，而不是投資（您不是這58個錢包之一）。

Bubbles eventually burst, and the outer reaches of this one are going to simply vaporize, like the NFT scam did, while the likes of Bitcoin, when it is not being used to con the elderly out of their savings or to blackmail people with email threats of exposing the, err, personal things they do behind their screens, may have some utility. It has broken through to the mainstream corporate world in some cases.

氣泡最終破裂了，這種外部範圍將像NFT騙局一樣簡單地蒸發，而比特幣之類的人，當它不被用來從儲蓄中騙取老年人或勒索具有裸體的人，他們會在屏幕後面遇到的錯誤，可能會有一些公用事業。在某些情況下，它已經破壞了主流企業界。

But the sloganeering? Just hodl and get rich! That is the main pitch to newbie market players and it is a promotion for the ages. Crypto is figuratively sold to the public as currency outside the mainstream and outside the clutches of government. It is represented by its gurus (promoters) as safety and protection against government and monetary policy abuse. It is sold as monetary value of some kind, residing in server farms and organized by personal wallets and systems of transaction.

但是口號？只是霍德（Hodl），致富！這是新手市場參與者的主要球場，這是年齡段的促銷活動。加密在主流和政府離合器之外以貨幣形式出售給公眾。它以其大師（發起人）為代表，以對政府和貨幣政策濫用的安全和保護。它作為某種貨幣價值出售，居住在服務器農場，並由個人錢包和交易系統組織。

Well kids, good luck with that. Again, what happens when someone trips over the cord or worse, decides to turn out the lights? Not only is your speculation down the tubes, but the “value” that never was will be all too apparent.

好的，孩子們，祝你好運。同樣，當有人在繩索上絆倒或更糟時，會發生什麼？您的投機不僅降低了管子，而且從未如此的“價值”都太明顯了。

I find the raging social media debates between Gold promoters and Bitcoin promoters to be especially comical. This battle of the Titans draws in all sorts of transfixed eyeballs from the multitudes who know there is something very wrong with the system that is/was. But just because both items are forms of monetary protest and revulsion, it does not mean they are even in the same universe, let alone ballpark.

我發現黃金促銷員和比特幣發起人之間的激烈社交媒體辯論特別可笑。這場巨人之戰吸引了各種各樣的透明眼球，這些人知道系統的系統非常不錯。但是，僅僅因為這兩個項目都是貨幣抗議和譴責的形式，這並不意味著它們甚至在同一宇宙中，更不用說球場了。

Gold is a long-term marker and tracker of monetary value. It will spend years sometimes not doing what you may think it should be doing. Then, in a phase like today its price validates its promoters and their fans. The problem being, they should have felt validated no matter what the price was doing, because gold is simply an inverse reflection of the macro in which it exists. Thus, it is monetary insurance. Thus it has value.

黃金是貨幣價值的長期標記和跟踪器。有時會花幾年時間不做您認為應該做的事情。然後，在今天的階段，其價格驗證了其發起人和粉絲。問題是，無論價格如何，他們都應該感到驗證，因為黃金只是對其存在的宏的反射。因此，這是貨幣保險。因此它具有價值。

The basis of this article is to define the difference between price speculation and value. Between a play and long-term insurance. Price-wise, BTC has drubbed gold since it began trading in 2014. The entirety of that phase (aside from a few brief and heavy corrections) was a bullish one in wider risk-on markets that were pumped by the then-ongoing policy bubble. So of course BTC has drubbed the counter-cyclical metal.

本文的基礎是定義價格投機和價值之間的差異。在遊戲和長期保險之間。從價格上講，BTC自2014年開始交易以來，BTC已將其丟棄。該階段的整個階段（除了一些簡短而重型的更正）是當時富於富有態度的政策泡沫所吸引的更廣泛風險市場的看漲。因此，BTC當然已經掉落了反週期金屬。

However, gold gets where it is going in the time it takes to get there. Many people are astounded at the big bull move that has blown through the 3000+ target that I personally had loaded since the Cup’s right side and Handle began to form in 2020. But it is not a bubble. It is an asset that was “counter” to bubble beneficiary assets from crypto to many hype-fueled stock sectors during the last cycle.

但是，黃金可以在到達那裡的時間之內到達它的發展方向。自從杯子的右側和手柄從2020年開始形成的3000多個目標，許多人對大公牛的舉動感到驚訝。但這不是泡沫。這是一個對從加密貨幣到許多炒作庫存部門的泡沫受益資產的“反對”資產。

Today, gold, while extended on a nominal price chart, is just getting started and far

如今，黃金雖然在名義價格表上擴展了，但剛剛起步，很遠