比特币（BTC/USD）和加密货币一直是第1天的猜测？好吧，我的骗局破裂了，是时候使用我的b/s检测器了

我已经将比特币（BTC/USD）和加密货币视为从第1天开始的不同程度的猜测？好吧，一旦NFT/Crypto无人机开始喜欢，

I have viewed Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Crypto in general as a speculation to varying degrees from day 1. NFT? Well, as soon as NFT/Crypto drones started liking, following and glad-handing me (@NFTRHgt) on what was then Twitter simply because of three letters in the abbreviated name of my service (Notes From the Rabbit Hole), my Scam-O-Meter red-lined and broke. “Meme Coins”?

我已经将比特币（BTC/USD）和加密货币视为从第1天开始的不同程度的猜测？好吧，一旦NFT/Crypto无人机开始喜欢，跟随并高兴地对我（@nftrhgt）在Twitter上（@nftrhgt），仅仅是因为我服务的缩写名称中的三个字母（兔子洞的笔记），我的Scam-O-O-Meter红色衬衫红色衬托和破产。 “模因硬币”？

Well, I told you my Scam-O-Meter broke, so I’ll use my B/S Detector instead to take a look at the Crypto sphere vs. XAU/USD.

好吧，我告诉过你我的骗局米米破裂了，所以我会用我的b/s检测器来看看加密球体与XAU/USD。

Crypto and especially its speculative outer edges are logical components of the massive array of investments and speculations alike that have been exponentially boosted by the decades-long bubble in monetary and fiscal policies designed to inflate asset prices at all costs. The Fed and the government are working from different angles on the same street.

加密货币，尤其是其投机性外边缘是一系列大量投资和猜测的逻辑组成部分，这是由于数十年来的货币和财政政策中旨在以所有费用膨胀资产价格的货币和财政政策的成倍增强的。美联储和政府正在同一条街上从不同角度工作。

It is a bubble now indicated to be ending (if it’s not already blown) due to a ton of indicators we’ve tracked over the last year+ and in the case of the 30-year Treasury yield “Continuum”, since its big time trend break in 2022. Here is the not-so-pretty picture * , although details on this and other macro indicators are beyond the scope of this article.

由于我们在过去一年+中所追踪的大量指标，并且在30年的国库生产收益“连续体”的情况下，它已经结束了（如果还没有爆炸），因为它在2022年的时间趋势很大。这是不实前的图片 *，尽管这是不太朴实的图片 *，尽管详细介绍了这本文章的详细信息。

* Unless you, like I, are a macro market nerd.

*除非您像我一样，都是宏观市场书呆子。

The general Crypto story that the public finds so engaging is actually quite compelling; technology and its unlimited power (unless someone trips over the plug), art/design and meme-centric creativity combine to theoretically set one free from the tyranny of the Central Banking system and the trampy debt notes of currency at its core.

公众发现如此吸引人的一般加密故事实际上是非常引人注目的。技术及其无限的力量（除非有人在插头上绊倒），艺术/设计和以模因的创造力结合了理论上使一个摆脱了中央银行系统的暴政以及其核心货币的流浪汉债务。

Folks, the bubble is hitting its Zenith. It’s a play. Go ahead and play if you will. But understand that you are speculating, not investing (and you are not one of these 58 wallets ).

伙计们，泡沫正在击中其顶峰。这是一部戏。如果愿意的话，继续玩。但是请了解您正在猜测，而不是投资（您不是这58个钱包之一）。

Bubbles eventually burst, and the outer reaches of this one are going to simply vaporize, like the NFT scam did, while the likes of Bitcoin, when it is not being used to con the elderly out of their savings or to blackmail people with email threats of exposing the, err, personal things they do behind their screens, may have some utility. It has broken through to the mainstream corporate world in some cases.

气泡最终破裂了，这种外部范围将像NFT骗局一样简单地蒸发，而比特币之类的人，当它不被用来从储蓄中骗取老年人或勒索具有裸体的人，他们会在屏幕后面遇到的错误，可能会有一些公用事业。在某些情况下，它已经破坏了主流企业界。

But the sloganeering? Just hodl and get rich! That is the main pitch to newbie market players and it is a promotion for the ages. Crypto is figuratively sold to the public as currency outside the mainstream and outside the clutches of government. It is represented by its gurus (promoters) as safety and protection against government and monetary policy abuse. It is sold as monetary value of some kind, residing in server farms and organized by personal wallets and systems of transaction.

但是口号？只是霍德（Hodl），致富！这是新手市场参与者的主要球场，这是年龄段的促销活动。加密在主流和政府离合器之外以货币形式出售给公众。它以其大师（发起人）为代表，以对政府和货币政策滥用的安全和保护。它作为某种货币价值出售，居住在服务器农场，并由个人钱包和交易系统组织。

Well kids, good luck with that. Again, what happens when someone trips over the cord or worse, decides to turn out the lights? Not only is your speculation down the tubes, but the “value” that never was will be all too apparent.

好的，孩子们，祝你好运。同样，当有人在绳索上绊倒或更糟时，会发生什么？您的投机不仅降低了管子，而且从未如此的“价值”都太明显了。

I find the raging social media debates between Gold promoters and Bitcoin promoters to be especially comical. This battle of the Titans draws in all sorts of transfixed eyeballs from the multitudes who know there is something very wrong with the system that is/was. But just because both items are forms of monetary protest and revulsion, it does not mean they are even in the same universe, let alone ballpark.

我发现黄金促销员和比特币发起人之间的激烈社交媒体辩论特别可笑。这场巨人之战吸引了各种各样的透明眼球，这些人知道系统的系统非常不错。但是，仅仅因为这两个项目都是货币抗议和谴责的形式，这并不意味着它们甚至在同一宇宙中，更不用说球场了。

Gold is a long-term marker and tracker of monetary value. It will spend years sometimes not doing what you may think it should be doing. Then, in a phase like today its price validates its promoters and their fans. The problem being, they should have felt validated no matter what the price was doing, because gold is simply an inverse reflection of the macro in which it exists. Thus, it is monetary insurance. Thus it has value.

黄金是货币价值的长期标记和跟踪器。有时会花几年时间不做您认为应该做的事情。然后，在今天的阶段，其价格验证了其发起人和粉丝。问题是，无论价格如何，他们都应该感到验证，因为黄金只是对其存在的宏的反射。因此，这是货币保险。因此它具有价值。

The basis of this article is to define the difference between price speculation and value. Between a play and long-term insurance. Price-wise, BTC has drubbed gold since it began trading in 2014. The entirety of that phase (aside from a few brief and heavy corrections) was a bullish one in wider risk-on markets that were pumped by the then-ongoing policy bubble. So of course BTC has drubbed the counter-cyclical metal.

本文的基础是定义价格投机和价值之间的差异。在游戏和长期保险之间。从价格上讲，BTC自2014年开始交易以来，BTC已将其丢弃。该阶段的整个阶段（除了一些简短而重型的更正）是当时富于富有态度的政策泡沫所吸引的更广泛风险市场的看涨。因此，BTC当然已经掉落了反周期金属。

However, gold gets where it is going in the time it takes to get there. Many people are astounded at the big bull move that has blown through the 3000+ target that I personally had loaded since the Cup’s right side and Handle began to form in 2020. But it is not a bubble. It is an asset that was “counter” to bubble beneficiary assets from crypto to many hype-fueled stock sectors during the last cycle.

但是，黄金可以在到达那里的时间之内到达它的发展方向。自从杯子的右侧和手柄从2020年开始形成的3000多个目标，许多人对大公牛的举动感到惊讶。但这不是泡沫。这是一个对从加密货币到许多炒作库存部门的泡沫受益资产的“反对”资产。

Today, gold, while extended on a nominal price chart, is just getting started and far

如今，黄金虽然在名义价格表上扩展了，但刚刚起步，很远