比特幣（BTC）向前邁出了重要的技術一步，超過了其關鍵的牛市支持樂隊

加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）週一表示，比特幣投資者應密切關注比特幣相對於兩個主要指標的行為：為期20週的SMA和21週的EMA。

Bitcoin has taken an important technical step forward, closing above its critical bull market support band — but whether this breakout is real or another fakeout will likely be determined over the next two weeks.

比特幣已經向前邁出了重要的技術一步，超過了其關鍵的牛市支持樂隊，但是無論是真實的還是，在接下來的兩週內都可能確定另一個假貨。

Key Bitcoin Price Indicators

關鍵比特幣價格指標

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said Monday that Bitcoin investors should closely watch how Bitcoin behaves relative to two major indicators:

加密貨幣分析師本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）週一表示，比特幣投資者應密切關注比特幣相對於兩個主要指標的行為：

Together, these averages form what’s called the bull market support band, a technical marker that has historically signaled Bitcoin’s longer-term momentum shifts.

這些平均值形成了所謂的牛市支持樂隊，這是一種技術標記，歷史上標誌著比特幣的長期動量變化。

Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin briefly rose above this key band in both July and August — only to lose steam and fall back into bearish territory. The question now: can Bitcoin sustain its move this time.

Cowen指出，在7月和8月，比特幣短暫地超越了這支關鍵樂隊 - 只是失去了動力並落入看跌領土。現在的問題：這次比特幣可以維持其行動。

“If Bitcoin can close the next two weeks above the 20-week SMA, then it’s pretty optimistic,” Cowen said. “If we get a weekly close below the 21-week EMA, then my guess is that we get a new low.”

考恩說：“如果比特幣可以在20週的SMA上關閉接下來的兩個星期，那就很樂觀了。” “如果我們每週在21週的EMA以下接近，那麼我的猜測是我們要有一個新的低點。”

Tracking BTC Retail Interest

跟踪BTC零售利息

This test of Bitcoin’s strength comes at a time of unusually low retail investor engagement despite the cryptocurrency’s sizable gains through 2024 and early 2025.

儘管加密貨幣在2024年和2025年初，這一比特幣實力的測試是在零售投資者參與下異常低的時候進行的。

Cowen’s analysis draws from his proprietary “social risk” metric, which tracks retail interest using indicators like:

Cowen的分析借鑒了其專有的“社會風險”指標，該指標使用以下指標跟踪零售興趣：

“Despite what it has felt like at times, retail interest never actually returned in the same way that it did in 2021,” Cowen said, comparing current conditions to 2019 — a year shaped by tight monetary policy and limited rate cuts.

科恩說：“儘管有時感覺有時，但零售利息從未像2021年那樣恢復。”

Notably, Bitcoin dominance — the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market value held by Bitcoin — has risen for eight consecutive weeks, underscoring how altcoins are struggling without a strong retail-driven rally.

值得注意的是，比特幣的優勢 - 比特幣總持有的加密貨幣市場價值的百分比連續八週增長，這突顯了山寨幣在沒有強大零售驅動的集會的情況下如何掙扎。

Key Bitcoin Metrics to Watch:

關鍵比特幣指標要觀看：

Bitcoin to $100,000?

比特幣至100,000美元？

Bitcoin holding above its bull market support band could be a major milestone on the road to $100,000. But it needs to prove that it can sustain momentum — not just flash short-term strength.

在其牛市支持樂隊上方的比特幣持有可能是100,000美元的主要里程碑。但是它需要證明它可以維持動力，而不僅僅是短期實力。

If Bitcoin falters in the next two weeks, it could delay the much-anticipated surge to six figures.

如果比特幣在接下來的兩週內步履蹣跚，它可能會將備受期待的激增延遲到六位數。

However, if it stays firm, analysts believe that Bitcoin could finally start the next major leg up, especially as monetary policy eases later in 2025.

但是，如果它保持堅定，分析師認為比特幣最終可以開始下一個主要的領域，尤其是隨著貨幣政策在2025年晚些時候放鬆。

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