比特币（BTC）向前迈出了重要的技术一步，超过了其关键的牛市支持乐队

加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）周一表示，比特币投资者应密切关注比特币相对于两个主要指标的行为：为期20周的SMA和21周的EMA。

Bitcoin has taken an important technical step forward, closing above its critical bull market support band — but whether this breakout is real or another fakeout will likely be determined over the next two weeks.

比特币已经向前迈出了重要的技术一步，超过了其关键的牛市支持乐队，但是无论是真实的还是，在接下来的两周内都可能确定另一个假货。

Key Bitcoin Price Indicators

关键比特币价格指标

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said Monday that Bitcoin investors should closely watch how Bitcoin behaves relative to two major indicators:

加密货币分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）周一表示，比特币投资者应密切关注比特币相对于两个主要指标的行为：

Together, these averages form what’s called the bull market support band, a technical marker that has historically signaled Bitcoin’s longer-term momentum shifts.

这些平均值形成了所谓的牛市支持乐队，这是一种技术标记，历史上标志着比特币的长期动量变化。

Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin briefly rose above this key band in both July and August — only to lose steam and fall back into bearish territory. The question now: can Bitcoin sustain its move this time.

Cowen指出，在7月和8月，比特币短暂地超越了这支关键乐队 - 只是失去了动力并落入看跌领土。现在的问题：这次比特币可以维持其行动。

“If Bitcoin can close the next two weeks above the 20-week SMA, then it’s pretty optimistic,” Cowen said. “If we get a weekly close below the 21-week EMA, then my guess is that we get a new low.”

考恩说：“如果比特币可以在20周的SMA上关闭接下来的两个星期，那就很乐观了。” “如果我们每周在21周的EMA以下接近，那么我的猜测是我们要有一个新的低点。”

Tracking BTC Retail Interest

跟踪BTC零售利息

This test of Bitcoin’s strength comes at a time of unusually low retail investor engagement despite the cryptocurrency’s sizable gains through 2024 and early 2025.

尽管加密货币在2024年和2025年初，这一比特币实力的测试是在零售投资者参与下异常低的时候进行的。

Cowen’s analysis draws from his proprietary “social risk” metric, which tracks retail interest using indicators like:

Cowen的分析借鉴了其专有的“社会风险”指标，该指标使用以下指标跟踪零售兴趣：

“Despite what it has felt like at times, retail interest never actually returned in the same way that it did in 2021,” Cowen said, comparing current conditions to 2019 — a year shaped by tight monetary policy and limited rate cuts.

科恩说：“尽管有时感觉有时，但零售利息从未像2021年那样恢复。”

Notably, Bitcoin dominance — the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market value held by Bitcoin — has risen for eight consecutive weeks, underscoring how altcoins are struggling without a strong retail-driven rally.

值得注意的是，比特币的优势 - 比特币总持有的加密货币市场价值的百分比连续八周增长，这突显了山寨币在没有强大零售驱动的集会的情况下如何挣扎。

Key Bitcoin Metrics to Watch:

关键比特币指标要观看：

Bitcoin to $100,000?

比特币至100,000美元？

Bitcoin holding above its bull market support band could be a major milestone on the road to $100,000. But it needs to prove that it can sustain momentum — not just flash short-term strength.

在其牛市支持乐队上方的比特币持有可能是100,000美元的主要里程碑。但是它需要证明它可以维持动力，而不仅仅是短期实力。

If Bitcoin falters in the next two weeks, it could delay the much-anticipated surge to six figures.

如果比特币在接下来的两周内步履蹒跚，它可能会将备受期待的激增延迟到六位数。

However, if it stays firm, analysts believe that Bitcoin could finally start the next major leg up, especially as monetary policy eases later in 2025.

但是，如果它保持坚定，分析师认为比特币最终可以开始下一个主要的领域，尤其是随着货币政策在2025年晚些时候放松。

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