比特幣[BTC]在越來越固定的FOMC張力中保持彈性

比特幣[BTC]在越來越多的FOMC緊張局勢中仍然具有韌性，這無視更廣泛的市場猶豫，因為貿易商席位美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）即將到來的政策更新。

Bitcoin [BTC] is showing surprising resilience amid pre-FOMC tension, defying broader market hesitation as traders await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming policy update.

在FOMC前的緊張局勢中，比特幣[BTC]表現出令人驚訝的韌性，這無視更廣泛的市場猶豫，因為交易者在等待美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）即將推出的政策更新。

While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged for now, analysts at Delta Exchange anticipate a short-term correction within the next 48 hours.

儘管預計目前的利率將保持不變，但Delta Exchange的分析師預計將在接下來的48小時內進行短期更正。

However, in a broader perspective, Bitcoin’s sustained outperformance of both gold and the S&P 500 over the past month is reinforcing a growing “up-only” narrative, hinting at deepening investor confidence even in a cautious environment.

然而，從更廣泛的角度來看，比特幣在過去一個月中對黃金和標準普爾500指數的持續超越表現正在加強越來越多的“上升”敘述，也暗示了即使在謹慎的環境中，也暗示了投資者的信心加深了信心。

Since the 1970s, every time the real federal funds rate has exceeded the natural rate of interest significantly, the U.S. economy has either entered a full recession or experienced a growth slowdown.

自1970年代以來，每當真正的聯邦資金利率顯著超過自然利率時，美國經濟要么進入全面衰退，要么經歷了增長放緩。

The chart below, based on Jim Paulsen’s analysis, highlights this pattern with striking clarity.

下圖基於吉姆·保爾森（Jim Paulsen）的分析，以驚人的清晰度強調了這種模式。

Currently, the real rate is well above the neutral rate, mirroring past peaks that came before economic downturns.

目前，實際速率遠高於中立速度，反映了經濟低迷之前的過去高峰。

Source: X

來源：X

President Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the central bank seems set to hold steady at its meeting on the 7th of May.

特朗普總統敦促美聯儲降低利率，但中央銀行似乎在5月7日的會議上保持穩定。

Officials are approaching the decision cautiously, considering conflicting economic signals—a Q1 GDP contraction against strong April job numbers.

官員們正在謹慎地考慮經濟信號相互矛盾，這是第1季度的GDP收縮，針對強大的四月工作人數。

However, with Trump’s tariffs adding new inflationary pressures, the risk of delayed easing may increase.

但是，隨著特朗普的關稅增加了新的通貨膨脹壓力，放鬆延遲的風險可能會增加。

Is Bitcoin the new safe haven?

比特幣是新的避風港嗎？

Amid rising uncertainty and Fed policy paralysis, Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional assets. BTC surged over 7% in April, outpacing both gold and the S&P 500, the latter of which remained in the red for much of the month.

在不確定性和美聯儲癱瘓的情況下，比特幣繼續勝過傳統資產。 BTC在四月份飆升了7％以上，超過了黃金和標準普爾500指數，後者在一個月的大部分時間裡一直保持在紅色中。

While gold experienced a modest gain of nearly 5%, Bitcoin’s rally is noteworthy and suggests a growing shift in investor behavior.

儘管黃金經歷了近5％的幅度，但比特幣的集會值得注意，這表明投資者行為的變化越來越大。

Source: Crypto Rank

來源：加密等級

With recession risks rising and equities struggling, some capital that would typically flow into gold or defensive stocks appears to be flowing into Bitcoin.

隨著經濟衰退風險的上升和股票的掙扎，一些通常會流入黃金或防禦性股票的資本似乎流入了比特幣。

If rate cuts do materialize later this year, BTC could see renewed upside momentum as liquidity returns and risk appetite broadens.

如果削減稅率確實在今年晚些時候實現，那麼隨著流動性的回報和風險胃口的範圍，BTC可能會發現上漲的勢頭。

BTC market positioning: “Up-Only” returns or just a pause?

BTC市場定位：“僅上升”返回還是停頓？

Bitcoin remains technically sound despite light selling pressure ahead of the FOMC. According to analyst Michael Van De Poppe, BTC is holding up “nicely” and may be forming a bottom, with the lowest point possibly arriving today or tomorrow.

儘管在FOMC之前銷售壓力，但比特幣在技術上仍然是合理的。根據分析師邁克爾·范德·波普（Michael Van de Poppe）的說法，BTC的舉起“很好”，可能形成底部，最低點可能是今天或明天到達的。

The attached chart shows liquidity clustered around the $61.5K-$62.5K range; marked as a crucial re-entry zone if Bitcoin dips further.

所附圖表顯示，流動性聚集在$ 61.5K- $ 62.5K範圍內；如果比特幣進一步下降，則將其標記為關鍵重新進入區域。

Source: X

來源：X

After a strong rally in late April, BTC has entered a period of consolidation, a common occurrence ahead of major Fed announcements.

在4月下旬進行了強烈的集會之後，BTC進入了一段合併時期，在主要美聯儲公告之前發生了一個普遍的情況。

Despite this, the broader trend remains intact, and market sentiment is shifting toward a potential easing cycle. If the stars align, the “up-only” thesis could regain momentum quickly.

儘管如此，更廣泛的趨勢仍然完好無損，市場情緒正在轉向潛在的緩解週期。如果恆星對齊，那麼“僅”論文可能會迅速恢復動力。

If Bitcoin manages to stay above the green zone, bulls could take the lead and push for a continuation of the upward move.

如果比特幣設法保持在綠色區域之上，則公牛可以領先，並推動繼續前進。