比特币[BTC]在越来越固定的FOMC张力中保持弹性

比特币[BTC]在越来越多的FOMC紧张局势中仍然具有韧性，这无视更广泛的市场犹豫，因为贸易商席位美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）即将到来的政策更新。

Bitcoin [BTC] is showing surprising resilience amid pre-FOMC tension, defying broader market hesitation as traders await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming policy update.

在FOMC前的紧张局势中，比特币[BTC]表现出令人惊讶的韧性，这无视更广泛的市场犹豫，因为交易者在等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）即将推出的政策更新。

While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged for now, analysts at Delta Exchange anticipate a short-term correction within the next 48 hours.

尽管预计目前的利率将保持不变，但Delta Exchange的分析师预计将在接下来的48小时内进行短期更正。

However, in a broader perspective, Bitcoin’s sustained outperformance of both gold and the S&P 500 over the past month is reinforcing a growing “up-only” narrative, hinting at deepening investor confidence even in a cautious environment.

然而，从更广泛的角度来看，比特币在过去一个月中对黄金和标准普尔500指数的持续超越表现正在加强越来越多的“上升”叙述，也暗示了即使在谨慎的环境中，也暗示了投资者的信心加深了信心。

Since the 1970s, every time the real federal funds rate has exceeded the natural rate of interest significantly, the U.S. economy has either entered a full recession or experienced a growth slowdown.

自1970年代以来，每当真正的联邦资金利率显着超过自然利率时，美国经济要么进入全面衰退，要么经历了增长放缓。

The chart below, based on Jim Paulsen’s analysis, highlights this pattern with striking clarity.

下图基于吉姆·保尔森（Jim Paulsen）的分析，以惊人的清晰度强调了这种模式。

Currently, the real rate is well above the neutral rate, mirroring past peaks that came before economic downturns.

目前，实际速率远高于中立速度，反映了经济低迷之前的过去高峰。

Source: X

来源：X

President Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the central bank seems set to hold steady at its meeting on the 7th of May.

特朗普总统敦促美联储降低利率，但中央银行似乎在5月7日的会议上保持稳定。

Officials are approaching the decision cautiously, considering conflicting economic signals—a Q1 GDP contraction against strong April job numbers.

官员们正在谨慎地考虑经济信号相互矛盾，这是第1季度的GDP收缩，针对强大的四月工作人数。

However, with Trump’s tariffs adding new inflationary pressures, the risk of delayed easing may increase.

但是，随着特朗普的关税增加了新的通货膨胀压力，放松延迟的风险可能会增加。

Is Bitcoin the new safe haven?

比特币是新的避风港吗？

Amid rising uncertainty and Fed policy paralysis, Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional assets. BTC surged over 7% in April, outpacing both gold and the S&P 500, the latter of which remained in the red for much of the month.

在不确定性和美联储瘫痪的情况下，比特币继续胜过传统资产。 BTC在四月份飙升了7％以上，超过了黄金和标准普尔500指数，后者在一个月的大部分时间里一直保持在红色中。

While gold experienced a modest gain of nearly 5%, Bitcoin’s rally is noteworthy and suggests a growing shift in investor behavior.

尽管黄金经历了近5％的幅度，但比特币的集会值得注意，这表明投资者行为的变化越来越大。

Source: Crypto Rank

来源：加密等级

With recession risks rising and equities struggling, some capital that would typically flow into gold or defensive stocks appears to be flowing into Bitcoin.

随着经济衰退风险的上升和股票的挣扎，一些通常会流入黄金或防御性股票的资本似乎流入了比特币。

If rate cuts do materialize later this year, BTC could see renewed upside momentum as liquidity returns and risk appetite broadens.

如果削减税率确实在今年晚些时候实现，那么随着流动性的回报和风险胃口的范围，BTC可能会发现上涨的势头。

BTC market positioning: “Up-Only” returns or just a pause?

BTC市场定位：“仅上升”返回还是停顿？

Bitcoin remains technically sound despite light selling pressure ahead of the FOMC. According to analyst Michael Van De Poppe, BTC is holding up “nicely” and may be forming a bottom, with the lowest point possibly arriving today or tomorrow.

尽管在FOMC之前销售压力，但比特币在技术上仍然是合理的。根据分析师迈克尔·范德·波普（Michael Van de Poppe）的说法，BTC的举起“很好”，可能形成底部，最低点可能是今天或明天到达的。

The attached chart shows liquidity clustered around the $61.5K-$62.5K range; marked as a crucial re-entry zone if Bitcoin dips further.

所附图表显示，流动性聚集在$ 61.5K- $ 62.5K范围内；如果比特币进一步下降，则将其标记为关键重新进入区域。

Source: X

来源：X

After a strong rally in late April, BTC has entered a period of consolidation, a common occurrence ahead of major Fed announcements.

在4月下旬进行了强烈的集会之后，BTC进入了一段合并时期，在主要美联储公告之前发生了一个普遍的情况。

Despite this, the broader trend remains intact, and market sentiment is shifting toward a potential easing cycle. If the stars align, the “up-only” thesis could regain momentum quickly.

尽管如此，更广泛的趋势仍然完好无损，市场情绪正在转向潜在的缓解周期。如果恒星对齐，那么“仅”论文可能会迅速恢复动力。

If Bitcoin manages to stay above the green zone, bulls could take the lead and push for a continuation of the upward move.

如果比特币设法保持在绿色区域之上，则公牛可以领先，并推动继续前进。