比特幣（BTC）價格預測：為什麼交易者投注30萬美元的漲幅？

本文深入投機性瘋狂，打開了助長這一大膽預測的力量，並為散戶投資者提供了可行的見解

Bitcoin traders are placing big bets on a jaw-dropping price surge, with the $300K call option emerging as a top pick in the crypto options market. Could Bitcoin really triple to $300,000 by June 2025?

比特幣交易者正在大量賭博的價格上漲，而30萬美元的電話期權成為加密貨幣期權市場的首選。到2025年6月，比特幣真的可以三倍至$ 300,000嗎？

This article delves into the speculative frenzy, unpacks the forces fueling this bold prediction, and offers actionable insights for retail investors navigating Bitcoin's wild ride.

本文深入研究了投機性的狂熱，打開了助長這一大膽預測的力量，並為散戶投資者提供了可行的見解。

Why Are Traders Betting on a $300K Bitcoin?

為什麼交易者投注30萬美元的比特幣？

The crypto market thrives on bold bets, and the Deribit-listed $300,000 Bitcoin call option expiring June 26, 2025, is stealing the spotlight. According to market data, this option is the second-most popular bet in the June expiry, with over 5,000 contracts active and a notional open interest of $484 million.

加密貨幣市場以大膽的賭注蓬勃發展，而在2025年6月26日到期的deribit上市$ 300,000的比特幣通話期權正在搶下焦點。根據市場數據，此選項是6月到期的第二大賭注，有超過5,000份合同活躍，並具有4.84億美元的名義開放興趣。

For context, one contract equals 1 BTC on Deribit, the world's leading crypto options exchange, which handles over 75% of global options activity.

在上下文中，一份合同等於世界領先的加密貨幣期權交易所Deribit上的1 BTC，該交易所處理全球期權活動的75％以上。

This "lottery ticket" bet implies Bitcoin's spot price could triple from its current $80,000 to over $300,000 in less than two months.

這個“彩票”下注意味著比特幣的現貨價格可以從目前的80,000美元到不到兩個月的300,000美元以上。

"There are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge," said Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at GSR, in an interview with CoinDesk.

GSR的衍生品交易員斯賓塞·哈拉恩（Spencer Hallarn）在接受Coindesk的採訪時說：“總會有人想要過度充氣對沖。”

But what's driving this speculative fever, and should retail investors jump in? Let's break it down.

但是，是什麼推動了這種投機性發燒，零售投資者應該加入？讓我們分解。

The Bitcoin $300K Call: A High-Risk, High-Reward Bet

比特幣$ 300K電話：高風險，高回報下注

The $300K call is a deep out-of-the-money (OTM) option, meaning Bitcoin's price must skyrocket for it to pay off. These "wings" are cheap, priced at roughly $60 per contract in April at 100% implied volatility, according to Amberdata's Director of Derivatives.

$ 300K的電話是一個深入的貨幣（OTM）選項，這意味著比特幣的價格必須飆升才能獲得回報。根據Amberdata的衍生工具總監的說法，這些“機翼”價格便宜，四月份的每份合同的價格約為100％。

However, the potential payout is massive if Bitcoin surges, making them comparable to lottery tickets with slim odds but life-changing rewards if they hit.

但是，如果比特幣激增，潛在的支出是巨大的，這使得它們與彩票的差異很小，但如果他們擊中，則可以改變生活的回報。

The June 26 expiry is the largest among 2025 settlements, further amplifying market volatility as traders hedge positions, lock in gains, or engage in speculative bets.

6月26日到期是2025年定居點中最大的，隨著交易者對沖職位，鎖定收益或進行投機性賭注，進一步擴大了市場波動。

The $300K call's popularity is only surpassed by the $110K call, which has over 9,000 contracts open, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite Bitcoin's recent decline.

$ 30萬美元的電話的受歡迎程度僅超過了11萬美元的電話，該電話已有超過9,000個合同開放，表明儘管比特幣最近下降，但表明了強烈的看漲情緒。

Simranjeet Singh of GSR attributes this enthusiasm to a pro-crypto U.S. regulatory narrative and speculation around a potential Bitcoin strategic reserve.

GSR的Simranjeet Singh將這種熱情歸因於美國的監管敘事和圍繞潛在的比特幣戰略儲備的猜測。

"I suspect this is mostly an accumulation of relatively cheap wings betting on broader U.S. reg narrative being pro-crypto," Singh told CoinDesk.

辛格對Coindesk說：“我懷疑這主要是相對便宜的翅膀押注，在廣泛的美國敘事上是Pro-Crypto。”

What's Fueling the $300K Bitcoin Dream?

30萬美元的比特幣夢想是什麼？

Several catalysts are igniting optimism in the options market:

幾種催化劑正在引發期權市場的樂觀情緒：

Historical Context: Can Bitcoin Triple by June?

歷史背景：比特幣能在六月到6月三倍嗎？

Bitcoin's history is no stranger to meteoric rises. In 2020, it surged over 200% from $7,000 to $20,000 in the first six months.

比特幣的歷史對快速崛起並不陌生。 2020年，它在頭六個月中從7,000美元飆升至20,000美元。

A tripling from $80,000 to $300,000 would require a 275% increase in less than two months, an ambitious but not impossible move for Bitcoin, considering its 80%+ annualized volatility.

考慮到它的80％+年化波動率，比特幣的雄心勃勃但不是不可能的舉動，從80,000美元增加到30萬美元將需要增長275％，但對比特幣的雄心勃勃但不是不可能的舉動。

Past bull runs were fueled by loose monetary policy and retail euphoria, which might not fully apply to 2025, where Trump's tariffs and a potential liquidity crunch could pose challenges.

過去的公牛奔跑是由寬鬆的貨幣政策和零售欣喜的推動，這可能不完全適用於2025年，特朗普的關稅和潛在的流動性緊縮可能會帶來挑戰。

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

比特幣價格技術分析

On Monday, May 5, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $94,558 on Binance, holding near its multi-month highs. However, from a technical perspective, the price remains in a steady consolidation phase, with no clear signs of a breakout in the near term.

2025年5月5日，星期一，比特幣的二手貨幣交易價格為94,558美元，持有其多個月高點。但是，從技術角度來看，價格仍然處於穩定的整合階段，在短期內沒有明確的突破跡象。

Bitcoin's recent drop below $80,000 tested support at $74,500, but buyers defended this level, according to TradingView data.

根據TradingView Data的數據，比特幣最近的下跌低於80,000美元的$ 80,000測試支持，但根據TradingView數據，買家為此辯護。

Key resistance lies at:

關鍵阻力在於：

A breakout above $100,000 could trigger a parabolic move, especially with options-driven volatility. However, a failure to hold $74,500 might see BTC retest $59,000 or $53,500, according to prior support zones.

超過$ 100,000的突破可能會引發拋物線動作，尤其是隨著選項驅動的波動性。但是，根據先前的支持區，未能持有$ 74,500的$ 74,500可能會看到BTC重新測試$ 59,000或53,500美元。

Bitcoin Price Prediction: $300K and Above

比特幣價格預測：30萬美元及以上

While the $300K call option targets a short-term moonshot by June 2025, some prominent voices in the crypto space are betting on even loftier prices over the long term. These ultra-bullish forecasts underscore Bitcoin's potential as a transformative asset, although they come

雖然$ 300K的電話選項將到2025年6月的短期月光售價為目標，但從長遠來看，加密貨幣領域的一些突出聲音正在押注更高的價格。這些超級粉末的預測強調了比特幣作為變革性資產的潛力，儘管它們來了