比特币（BTC）价格预测：为什么交易者投注30万美元的涨幅？

本文深入投机性疯狂，打开了助长这一大胆预测的力量，并为散户投资者提供了可行的见解

Bitcoin traders are placing big bets on a jaw-dropping price surge, with the $300K call option emerging as a top pick in the crypto options market. Could Bitcoin really triple to $300,000 by June 2025?

比特币交易者正在大量赌博的价格上涨，而30万美元的电话期权成为加密货币期权市场的首选。到2025年6月，比特币真的可以三倍至$ 300,000吗？

This article delves into the speculative frenzy, unpacks the forces fueling this bold prediction, and offers actionable insights for retail investors navigating Bitcoin's wild ride.

本文深入研究了投机性的狂热，打开了助长这一大胆预测的力量，并为散户投资者提供了可行的见解。

Why Are Traders Betting on a $300K Bitcoin?

为什么交易者投注30万美元的比特币？

The crypto market thrives on bold bets, and the Deribit-listed $300,000 Bitcoin call option expiring June 26, 2025, is stealing the spotlight. According to market data, this option is the second-most popular bet in the June expiry, with over 5,000 contracts active and a notional open interest of $484 million.

加密货币市场以大胆的赌注蓬勃发展，而在2025年6月26日到期的deribit上市$ 300,000的比特币通话期权正在抢下焦点。根据市场数据，此选项是6月到期的第二大赌注，有超过5,000份合同活跃，并具有4.84亿美元的名义开放兴趣。

For context, one contract equals 1 BTC on Deribit, the world's leading crypto options exchange, which handles over 75% of global options activity.

在上下文中，一份合同等于世界领先的加密货币期权交易所Deribit上的1 BTC，该交易所处理全球期权活动的75％以上。

This "lottery ticket" bet implies Bitcoin's spot price could triple from its current $80,000 to over $300,000 in less than two months.

这个“彩票”下注意味着比特币的现货价格可以从目前的80,000美元到不到两个月的300,000美元以上。

"There are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge," said Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at GSR, in an interview with CoinDesk.

GSR的衍生品交易员斯宾塞·哈拉恩（Spencer Hallarn）在接受Coindesk的采访时说：“总会有人想要过度充气对冲。”

But what's driving this speculative fever, and should retail investors jump in? Let's break it down.

但是，是什么推动了这种投机性发烧，零售投资者应该加入？让我们分解。

The Bitcoin $300K Call: A High-Risk, High-Reward Bet

比特币$ 300K电话：高风险，高回报下注

The $300K call is a deep out-of-the-money (OTM) option, meaning Bitcoin's price must skyrocket for it to pay off. These "wings" are cheap, priced at roughly $60 per contract in April at 100% implied volatility, according to Amberdata's Director of Derivatives.

$ 300K的电话是一个深入的货币（OTM）选项，这意味着比特币的价格必须飙升才能获得回报。根据Amberdata的衍生工具总监的说法，这些“机翼”价格便宜，四月份的每份合同的价格约为100％。

However, the potential payout is massive if Bitcoin surges, making them comparable to lottery tickets with slim odds but life-changing rewards if they hit.

但是，如果比特币激增，潜在的支出是巨大的，这使得它们与彩票的差异很小，但如果他们击中，则可以改变生活的回报。

The June 26 expiry is the largest among 2025 settlements, further amplifying market volatility as traders hedge positions, lock in gains, or engage in speculative bets.

6月26日到期是2025年定居点中最大的，随着交易者对冲职位，锁定收益或进行投机性赌注，进一步扩大了市场波动。

The $300K call's popularity is only surpassed by the $110K call, which has over 9,000 contracts open, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite Bitcoin's recent decline.

$ 30万美元的电话的受欢迎程度仅超过了11万美元的电话，该电话已有超过9,000个合同开放，表明尽管比特币最近下降，但表明了强烈的看涨情绪。

Simranjeet Singh of GSR attributes this enthusiasm to a pro-crypto U.S. regulatory narrative and speculation around a potential Bitcoin strategic reserve.

GSR的Simranjeet Singh将这种热情归因于美国的监管叙事和围绕潜在的比特币战略储备的猜测。

"I suspect this is mostly an accumulation of relatively cheap wings betting on broader U.S. reg narrative being pro-crypto," Singh told CoinDesk.

辛格对Coindesk说：“我怀疑这主要是相对便宜的翅膀押注，在广泛的美国叙事上是Pro-Crypto。”

What's Fueling the $300K Bitcoin Dream?

30万美元的比特币梦想是什么？

Several catalysts are igniting optimism in the options market:

几种催化剂正在引发期权市场的乐观情绪：

Historical Context: Can Bitcoin Triple by June?

历史背景：比特币能在六月到6月三倍吗？

Bitcoin's history is no stranger to meteoric rises. In 2020, it surged over 200% from $7,000 to $20,000 in the first six months.

比特币的历史对快速崛起并不陌生。 2020年，它在头六个月中从7,000美元飙升至20,000美元。

A tripling from $80,000 to $300,000 would require a 275% increase in less than two months, an ambitious but not impossible move for Bitcoin, considering its 80%+ annualized volatility.

考虑到它的80％+年化波动率，比特币的雄心勃勃但不是不可能的举动，从80,000美元增加到30万美元将需要增长275％，但对比特币的雄心勃勃但不是不可能的举动。

Past bull runs were fueled by loose monetary policy and retail euphoria, which might not fully apply to 2025, where Trump's tariffs and a potential liquidity crunch could pose challenges.

过去的公牛奔跑是由宽松的货币政策和零售欣喜的推动，这可能不完全适用于2025年，特朗普的关税和潜在的流动性紧缩可能会带来挑战。

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

比特币价格技术分析

On Monday, May 5, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $94,558 on Binance, holding near its multi-month highs. However, from a technical perspective, the price remains in a steady consolidation phase, with no clear signs of a breakout in the near term.

2025年5月5日，星期一，比特币的二手货币交易价格为94,558美元，持有其多个月高点。但是，从技术角度来看，价格仍然处于稳定的整合阶段，在短期内没有明确的突破迹象。

Bitcoin's recent drop below $80,000 tested support at $74,500, but buyers defended this level, according to TradingView data.

根据TradingView Data的数据，比特币最近的下跌低于80,000美元的$ 80,000测试支持，但根据TradingView数据，买家为此辩护。

Key resistance lies at:

关键阻力在于：

A breakout above $100,000 could trigger a parabolic move, especially with options-driven volatility. However, a failure to hold $74,500 might see BTC retest $59,000 or $53,500, according to prior support zones.

超过$ 100,000的突破可能会引发抛物线动作，尤其是随着选项驱动的波动性。但是，根据先前的支持区，未能持有$ 74,500的$ 74,500可能会看到BTC重新测试$ 59,000或53,500美元。

Bitcoin Price Prediction: $300K and Above

比特币价格预测：30万美元及以上

While the $300K call option targets a short-term moonshot by June 2025, some prominent voices in the crypto space are betting on even loftier prices over the long term. These ultra-bullish forecasts underscore Bitcoin's potential as a transformative asset, although they come

虽然$ 300K的电话选项将到2025年6月的短期月光售价为目标，但从长远来看，加密货币领域的一些突出声音正在押注更高的价格。这些超级粉末的预测强调了比特币作为变革性资产的潜力，尽管它们来了