Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Why Are Traders Betting on a $300K Surge?

This article dives into the speculative frenzy, unpacks the forces fueling this bold prediction, and offers actionable insights for retail investors

Bitcoin traders are placing big bets on a jaw-dropping price surge, with the $300K call option emerging as a top pick in the crypto options market. Could Bitcoin really triple to $300,000 by June 2025?

This article delves into the speculative frenzy, unpacks the forces fueling this bold prediction, and offers actionable insights for retail investors navigating Bitcoin's wild ride.

Why Are Traders Betting on a $300K Bitcoin?

The crypto market thrives on bold bets, and the Deribit-listed $300,000 Bitcoin call option expiring June 26, 2025, is stealing the spotlight. According to market data, this option is the second-most popular bet in the June expiry, with over 5,000 contracts active and a notional open interest of $484 million.

For context, one contract equals 1 BTC on Deribit, the world's leading crypto options exchange, which handles over 75% of global options activity.

This "lottery ticket" bet implies Bitcoin's spot price could triple from its current $80,000 to over $300,000 in less than two months.

"There are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge," said Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at GSR, in an interview with CoinDesk.

But what's driving this speculative fever, and should retail investors jump in? Let's break it down.

The Bitcoin $300K Call: A High-Risk, High-Reward Bet

The $300K call is a deep out-of-the-money (OTM) option, meaning Bitcoin's price must skyrocket for it to pay off. These "wings" are cheap, priced at roughly $60 per contract in April at 100% implied volatility, according to Amberdata's Director of Derivatives.

However, the potential payout is massive if Bitcoin surges, making them comparable to lottery tickets with slim odds but life-changing rewards if they hit.

The June 26 expiry is the largest among 2025 settlements, further amplifying market volatility as traders hedge positions, lock in gains, or engage in speculative bets.

The $300K call's popularity is only surpassed by the $110K call, which has over 9,000 contracts open, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite Bitcoin's recent decline.

Simranjeet Singh of GSR attributes this enthusiasm to a pro-crypto U.S. regulatory narrative and speculation around a potential Bitcoin strategic reserve.

"I suspect this is mostly an accumulation of relatively cheap wings betting on broader U.S. reg narrative being pro-crypto," Singh told CoinDesk.

What's Fueling the $300K Bitcoin Dream?

Several catalysts are igniting optimism in the options market:

Historical Context: Can Bitcoin Triple by June?

Bitcoin's history is no stranger to meteoric rises. In 2020, it surged over 200% from $7,000 to $20,000 in the first six months.

A tripling from $80,000 to $300,000 would require a 275% increase in less than two months, an ambitious but not impossible move for Bitcoin, considering its 80%+ annualized volatility.

Past bull runs were fueled by loose monetary policy and retail euphoria, which might not fully apply to 2025, where Trump's tariffs and a potential liquidity crunch could pose challenges.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

On Monday, May 5, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $94,558 on Binance, holding near its multi-month highs. However, from a technical perspective, the price remains in a steady consolidation phase, with no clear signs of a breakout in the near term.

Bitcoin's recent drop below $80,000 tested support at $74,500, but buyers defended this level, according to TradingView data.

Key resistance lies at:

A breakout above $100,000 could trigger a parabolic move, especially with options-driven volatility. However, a failure to hold $74,500 might see BTC retest $59,000 or $53,500, according to prior support zones.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: $300K and Above

While the $300K call option targets a short-term moonshot by June 2025, some prominent voices in the crypto space are betting on even loftier prices over the long term. These ultra-bullish forecasts underscore Bitcoin's potential as a transformative asset, although they come