比特幣（BTC）價格預測：彩虹圖和股票流量（S2F）模型指向爆炸性增長

目前，5月9日，星期五，比特幣（BTC）以103,046美元的價格交易，許多觀察家預見到年底之前的新創紀錄水平。

As bitcoin continues to hit fresh peaks, analysts are consulting a variety of charting tools to anticipate the trajectory of the leading digital currency. Among these are the well-known Rainbow chart and the stock-to-flow (S2F) model. The following analysis examines BTC's present price through the lens of these two frameworks.

隨著比特幣繼續達到新鮮峰值，分析師正在諮詢各種圖表工具，以預測領先的數字貨幣的軌跡。其中包括眾所周知的彩虹圖和庫存流量（S2F）型號。以下分析通過這兩個框架的鏡頭檢查了BTC的當前價格。

Bitcoin Models Point to Explosive Growth — But Will Reality Cooperate?

比特幣模型指出了爆炸性的增長 - 但是現實會合作嗎？

At present, on Friday, May 9, bitcoin (BTC) trades at $103,046, and many observers foresee new record levels before year-end.

目前，5月9日，星期五，比特幣（BTC）以103,046美元的價格交易，許多觀察家預見到年底之前的新創紀錄水平。

Market participants follow chart patterns with great interest, while analysts consult predictive models to try to anticipate the asset’s next moves. This analysis examines two specific charting techniques and forecasting frameworks that might yield insight, although these tools have been called imperfect in the past.

市場參與者遵循非常感興趣的圖表模式，而分析師諮詢了預測模型，以期預測資產的下一個動作。該分析研究了可能產生洞察力的兩種特定圖表技術和預測框架，儘管過去稱這些工具被稱為不完善。

Stock-to-Flow (S2F)

股票流量（S2F）

The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model quantifies scarcity by relating existing supply (stock) to annual production (flow). For bitcoin, “flow” denotes coins newly mined each year. When bitcoin’s supply is halved every four years, flow diminishes, rendering the digital asset more scarce. The S2F framework posits that heightened scarcity leads to upward pressure on price.

股票對流量（S2F）模型通過將現有供應（股票）與年生產（流）聯繫起來來量化稀缺性。對於比特幣，“流”表示每年新開采的硬幣。當比特幣的供應每四年減半時，流量會減少，使數字資產更加稀缺。 S2F框架認為，稀缺性的越來越大，會導致價格上升壓力。

At present, the price trajectory is shaded red to orange, signifying that we just passed a halving event one year ago (red = 0 days to halving, blue = many days past).

目前，價格軌跡被遮蔽到橙色的紅色，這表明我們剛剛通過了一年前的一個減半活動（紅色= 0天減半，藍色=過去的幾天）。

Historically, these phases after a halving spark vigorous price rallies over the following 12–18 months. The closeness of bitcoin’s market price to the S2F projection now implies that the asset is following the model more faithfully than in earlier cycles.

從歷史上看，在接下來的12-18個月中，這些階段在減少了閃電般的價格集會後。比特幣市場價格與S2F投影的親密關係現在意味著，比以前的周期更忠實地遵循該模型的資產。

Projecting historical post-halving S2F patterns forward, the model forecasts an exponential climb, potentially landing around $275,000 by late 2026. That trajectory reflects the scarcity thesis at the heart of S2F, in which each halving curtails issuance and, all else equal, should elevate the price. This dynamic has played out with exchange-traded funds and firms like Strategy, formerly Microstrategy, which continue to accumulate BTC despite price surges.

該模型向前介紹了歷史後的S2F模式，預測了指數的攀登，到2026年末可能會降落約275,000美元。這一軌跡反映了S2F核心的稀缺性論文，在S2F的核心中，每次減少縮減的發行都將降低發行，並且所有其他所有人都應等於價格。這種動態已經通過交易所交易的資金和諸如策略（以前是MicroStrategy的戰略）等公司進行，儘管價格有所飆升，該公司仍在累積BTC。

Although this model offers visual clarity and has shown historical consistency, it should be considered in concert with other metrics, as it does not factor in external market shocks or macroeconomic disruptions (e.g., war or Trump’s trade decisions). Like all models and technical analysis, S2F has seen its fair share of criticism.

儘管該模型具有視覺清晰度並顯示出歷史的一致性，但應與其他指標共同考慮，因為它不會考慮外部市場衝擊或宏觀經濟中斷（例如，戰爭或特朗普的貿易決定）。像所有模型和技術分析一樣，S2F也看到了其相當多的批評。

Rainbow Chart

彩虹圖

According to the original Rainbow Chart, bitcoin’s price over the next 18 months is likely to progress from the “FOMO” band into the “Is this a Bubble?” zone. That trajectory begins just above $100,000 and advances toward a range of $290,000-$365,000 by late 2026. The colored bands represent long-term logarithmic growth, implying that, should bitcoin follow its historical pattern, it will move through these sentiment thresholds before entering more speculative territory. The Rainbow Chart too has not been perfect and it should not be counted on against the backdrop of other market and other economic factors.

根據最初的彩虹圖，比特幣在未來18個月中的價格可能會從“ FOMO”樂隊發展為“這是個泡沫嗎？”區。到2026年末，該軌蹟的開始略高於100,000美元，並朝著290,000-365,000美元的範圍前進。彩色樂隊代表了長期對數增長，這意味著應該遵循比特幣遵循其歷史模式，它將在進入更多投機性領地之前通過這些情感閾值。彩虹圖也不是完美的，不應在其他市場和其他經濟因素的背景下依靠它。

It’s widely acknowledged that the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart has been edited and changed to mirror the market’s maturation and a more measured growth path. Early editions relied on scant data and presumed steep, speculative price climbs. As additional data emerged and returns tapered in subsequent cycles, the chart was adjusted with enhanced statistical techniques to avoid overfitting and align more closely with actual performance.

人們普遍承認，比特幣彩虹圖已進行了編輯並更改，以反映市場的成熟和更具衡量的增長道路。早期版本依靠數據很少，並假定陡峭的投機價格攀升。隨著附加數據的出現並在隨後的周期中返回錐度，使用增強的統計技術調整了圖表，以避免過度擬合併與實際性能更緊密地對齊。

These refinements render the chart more plausible and less driven by hype, enabling users to form realistic expectations. Although many critics argue that the Rainbow and models such as S2F lack empirical grounding and are subject to subjective interpretation.

這些改進使圖表更加合理，越來越不受炒作的驅動，從而使用戶能夠形成現實的期望。儘管許多批評家認為彩虹和S2F等模型缺乏經驗基礎，並且受主觀解釋。

Frameworks May Illuminate the Path, But Don’t Necessarily Determine the Destination

框架可能會照亮路徑，但不一定確定目的地

Taken together, the two approaches signal that bitcoin’s maturation is approaching another inflection, but they also remind observers that mathematics alone cannot capture every catalyst fueling digital asset markets.

綜上所述，這兩種方法表明，比特幣的成熟正在接近另一種變化，但他們也提醒觀察者，僅數學就無法捕獲每種催化劑，從而助長了數字資產市場。

Shifting liquidity preferences, regulatory stances and investor psychology will likely sharpen any forecast, allowing readers to treat colored bands and scarcity ratios as guideposts rather than ironclad fortune-telling devices for strategy.

轉移流動性的偏好，監管立場和投資者心理學可能會提高任何預測，從而使讀者可以將有色的樂隊和稀缺比率視為指南，而不是鐵克拉德的命運設備進行策略。

Conversely, deviations from modeled paths may spark debate over data integrity, inspiring practitioners to refine methodologies or blend traditional finance tools with emerging onchain metrics before staking high-stakes positions during shifting phases.

相反，與建模路徑的偏差可能引發有關數據完整性的辯論，激發從業人員優化方法論或將傳統的金融工具與新興的OnChain指標融合在一起，然後再在轉移階段佔據高風險位置。