比特币（BTC）价格预测：彩虹图和股票流量（S2F）模型指向爆炸性增长

目前，5月9日，星期五，比特币（BTC）以103,046美元的价格交易，许多观察家预见到年底之前的新创纪录水平。

As bitcoin continues to hit fresh peaks, analysts are consulting a variety of charting tools to anticipate the trajectory of the leading digital currency. Among these are the well-known Rainbow chart and the stock-to-flow (S2F) model. The following analysis examines BTC's present price through the lens of these two frameworks.

随着比特币继续达到新鲜峰值，分析师正在咨询各种图表工具，以预测领先的数字货币的轨迹。其中包括众所周知的彩虹图和库存流量（S2F）型号。以下分析通过这两个框架的镜头检查了BTC的当前价格。

Bitcoin Models Point to Explosive Growth — But Will Reality Cooperate?

比特币模型指出了爆炸性的增长 - 但是现实会合作吗？

At present, on Friday, May 9, bitcoin (BTC) trades at $103,046, and many observers foresee new record levels before year-end.

目前，5月9日，星期五，比特币（BTC）以103,046美元的价格交易，许多观察家预见到年底之前的新创纪录水平。

Market participants follow chart patterns with great interest, while analysts consult predictive models to try to anticipate the asset’s next moves. This analysis examines two specific charting techniques and forecasting frameworks that might yield insight, although these tools have been called imperfect in the past.

市场参与者遵循非常感兴趣的图表模式，而分析师咨询了预测模型，以期预测资产的下一个动作。该分析研究了可能产生洞察力的两种特定图表技术和预测框架，尽管过去称这些工具被称为不完善。

Stock-to-Flow (S2F)

股票流量（S2F）

The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model quantifies scarcity by relating existing supply (stock) to annual production (flow). For bitcoin, “flow” denotes coins newly mined each year. When bitcoin’s supply is halved every four years, flow diminishes, rendering the digital asset more scarce. The S2F framework posits that heightened scarcity leads to upward pressure on price.

股票对流量（S2F）模型通过将现有供应（股票）与年生产（流）联系起来来量化稀缺性。对于比特币，“流”表示每年新开采的硬币。当比特币的供应每四年减半时，流量会减少，使数字资产更加稀缺。 S2F框架认为，稀缺性的越来越大，会导致价格上升压力。

At present, the price trajectory is shaded red to orange, signifying that we just passed a halving event one year ago (red = 0 days to halving, blue = many days past).

目前，价格轨迹被遮蔽到橙色的红色，这表明我们刚刚通过了一年前的一个减半活动（红色= 0天减半，蓝色=过去的几天）。

Historically, these phases after a halving spark vigorous price rallies over the following 12–18 months. The closeness of bitcoin’s market price to the S2F projection now implies that the asset is following the model more faithfully than in earlier cycles.

从历史上看，在接下来的12-18个月中，这些阶段在减少了闪电般的价格集会后。比特币市场价格与S2F投影的亲密关系现在意味着，比以前的周期更忠实地遵循该模型的资产。

Projecting historical post-halving S2F patterns forward, the model forecasts an exponential climb, potentially landing around $275,000 by late 2026. That trajectory reflects the scarcity thesis at the heart of S2F, in which each halving curtails issuance and, all else equal, should elevate the price. This dynamic has played out with exchange-traded funds and firms like Strategy, formerly Microstrategy, which continue to accumulate BTC despite price surges.

该模型向前介绍了历史后的S2F模式，预测了指数的攀登，到2026年末可能会降落约275,000美元。这一轨迹反映了S2F核心的稀缺性论文，在S2F的核心中，每次减少缩减的发行都将降低发行，并且所有其他所有人都应等于价格。这种动态已经通过交易所交易的资金和诸如策略（以前是MicroStrategy的战略）等公司进行，尽管价格有所飙升，该公司仍在累积BTC。

Although this model offers visual clarity and has shown historical consistency, it should be considered in concert with other metrics, as it does not factor in external market shocks or macroeconomic disruptions (e.g., war or Trump’s trade decisions). Like all models and technical analysis, S2F has seen its fair share of criticism.

尽管该模型具有视觉清晰度并显示出历史的一致性，但应与其他指标共同考虑，因为它不会考虑外部市场冲击或宏观经济中断（例如，战争或特朗普的贸易决定）。像所有模型和技术分析一样，S2F也看到了其相当多的批评。

Rainbow Chart

彩虹图

According to the original Rainbow Chart, bitcoin’s price over the next 18 months is likely to progress from the “FOMO” band into the “Is this a Bubble?” zone. That trajectory begins just above $100,000 and advances toward a range of $290,000-$365,000 by late 2026. The colored bands represent long-term logarithmic growth, implying that, should bitcoin follow its historical pattern, it will move through these sentiment thresholds before entering more speculative territory. The Rainbow Chart too has not been perfect and it should not be counted on against the backdrop of other market and other economic factors.

根据最初的彩虹图，比特币在未来18个月中的价格可能会从“ FOMO”乐队发展为“这是个泡沫吗？”区。到2026年末，该轨迹的开始略高于100,000美元，并朝着290,000-365,000美元的范围前进。彩色乐队代表了长期对数增长，这意味着应该遵循比特币遵循其历史模式，它将在进入更多投机性领地之前通过这些情感阈值。彩虹图也不是完美的，不应在其他市场和其他经济因素的背景下依靠它。

It’s widely acknowledged that the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart has been edited and changed to mirror the market’s maturation and a more measured growth path. Early editions relied on scant data and presumed steep, speculative price climbs. As additional data emerged and returns tapered in subsequent cycles, the chart was adjusted with enhanced statistical techniques to avoid overfitting and align more closely with actual performance.

人们普遍承认，比特币彩虹图已进行了编辑并更改，以反映市场的成熟和更具衡量的增长道路。早期版本依靠数据很少，并假定陡峭的投机价格攀升。随着附加数据的出现并在随后的周期中返回锥度，使用增强的统计技术调整了图表，以避免过度拟合并与实际性能更紧密地对齐。

These refinements render the chart more plausible and less driven by hype, enabling users to form realistic expectations. Although many critics argue that the Rainbow and models such as S2F lack empirical grounding and are subject to subjective interpretation.

这些改进使图表更加合理，越来越不受炒作的驱动，从而使用户能够形成现实的期望。尽管许多批评家认为彩虹和S2F等模型缺乏经验基础，并且受主观解释。

Frameworks May Illuminate the Path, But Don’t Necessarily Determine the Destination

框架可能会照亮路径，但不一定确定目的地

Taken together, the two approaches signal that bitcoin’s maturation is approaching another inflection, but they also remind observers that mathematics alone cannot capture every catalyst fueling digital asset markets.

综上所述，这两种方法表明，比特币的成熟正在接近另一种变化，但他们也提醒观察者，仅数学就无法捕获每种催化剂，从而助长了数字资产市场。

Shifting liquidity preferences, regulatory stances and investor psychology will likely sharpen any forecast, allowing readers to treat colored bands and scarcity ratios as guideposts rather than ironclad fortune-telling devices for strategy.

转移流动性的偏好，监管立场和投资者心理学可能会提高任何预测，从而使读者可以将有色的乐队和稀缺比率视为指南，而不是铁克拉德的命运设备进行策略。

Conversely, deviations from modeled paths may spark debate over data integrity, inspiring practitioners to refine methodologies or blend traditional finance tools with emerging onchain metrics before staking high-stakes positions during shifting phases.

相反，与建模路径的偏差可能引发有关数据完整性的辩论，激发从业人员优化方法论或将传统的金融工具与新兴的OnChain指标融合在一起，然后再在转移阶段占据高风险位置。