比特幣（BTC）價格徘徊在$ 103,000的$ 103,000

隨著貿易商為另一個突破，比特幣價格徘徊在103,000美元中。儘管美聯儲的鷹派語調，但隨著簡短的清算迫在眉睫，貿易商卻望向120,000美元。

Key Insights:

關鍵見解：

* Bitcoin price hovered above $103,000 on Saturday as traders braced for another breakout.

*比特幣價格在周六徘徊在103,000美元以上，因為交易員準備了另一個突破。

* Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and a stall in U.S. rate cut bets, traders at Standard Chartered and Incrementum AG & Co. saw a move toward $120,000 as short liquidations loomed.

*儘管美聯儲的鷹派語調和美國的攤位降低了賭注，但標準特許和增量AG＆Co。的交易員還是看到了$ 120,000的搬遷，因為短清算迫在眉睫。

* Data from TradingView showed BTC consolidating after briefly tapping $105,000 on Friday. Traders on X, formerly Twitter, remained split, but several saw a continuation of the uptrend if the flagship crypto reclaims $108,000.

* TradingView的數據顯示，BTC在周五短暫敲擊105,000美元後合併。 X上的交易者（以前是Twitter）仍然分裂，但如果旗艦加密貨幣（旗艦）收回108,000美元，則有幾個人看到上升趨勢的延續。

BTC's Spot Volume Delta Turns Positive as Realized Cap Spikes

BTC的斑點數量delta變為正面，因為已實現的蓋帽尖峰

Glassnode data showed a sharp spike in BTC's spot buying volume this week. The 7-day simple moving average of Bitcoin's Spot Volume Delta turned positive, reaching $5 billion on May 13. This surge indicates aggressive buying activity in the spot market, typically observed preceding strong upward moves for Bitcoin price.

玻璃節數據顯示，本週BTC的現貨購買量有急劇的峰值。比特幣現貨數量達美比特幣的7天簡單移動平均線呈正變，5月13日達到50億美元。這次湧現表明在現貨市場上的積極購買活動，通常在比特幣價格以強勁的向上移動之前觀察到。

The rally is being driven by capital inflows and demand rather than leverage. Since April 20, there was a $30 billion increase in Bitcoin's Realized Cap, which measures the total BTC value based on the last moved price. In May, this metric is growing at a 3% monthly rate.

集會是由資本流入和需求而不是槓桿驅動的。自4月20日以來，比特幣實現的上限增加了300億美元，該上限根據上次移動的價格衡量了BTC的總價值。 5月，該指標以每月3％的速度增長。

"This is not just speculative leverage; this is real conviction," said one Glassnode analyst.

一位玻璃節分析師說：“這不僅是投機性的槓桿作用；這是真正的信念。”

Analyst @HolaItsAk47 pointed to a massive short squeeze risk. He warned that over $5 billion in Bitcoin shorts could get liquidated at $115,000.

分析師 @Helaitsak47指出了巨大的短擠壓風險。他警告說，超過50億美元的比特幣短褲可能以115,000美元的價格清算。

"The squeeze is real. Are you positioned right?" he asked his followers.

“擠壓是真實的。你定位對嗎？”他問他的追隨者。

Can BTC Price Surge Despite Waning Fed Rate Cut Bets?

儘管美聯儲率降低了賭注，但BTC價格上漲還是可以嗎？

CPI data on Sunday showed inflation cooling faster than expected, which initially sparked hopes of a Bitcoin price rally ahead. However, this did little to shift market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's tone remains cautious despite softening inflation.

週日的CPI數據顯示，通貨膨脹率的冷卻速度比預期的快，這最初引起了比特幣價格集會的希望。但是，這並沒有改變市場對降低利率的期望。儘管通貨膨脹軟化，美聯儲的語調仍然謹慎。

"US CPI came in below expectations, providing a welcome reprieve," QCP Capital noted in a Telegram bulletin. "Still, the Fed remains cautious."

QCP Capital在Telegram公告中指出：“美國CPI的期望低於預期，這給人以受歡迎的緩刑。” “儘管如此，美聯儲仍然謹慎。”

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price in two rate cuts in 2025, down from four expected just a month ago. The next potential cut is seen in September, not July, as previously hoped.

根據CME FedWatch工具的數據，現在市場在2025年的價格降低了兩次，比一個月前的四個預期。正如先前希望的那樣，下一個潛在的削減是在9月而不是七月。

Despite the shift in macro sentiment, BTC's price action appears disconnected from rate expectations in the short term.

儘管宏觀情緒發生了變化，但在短期內，BTC的價格行動似乎與利率預期脫節。

"Even though $BTC looks great IMO, I still stand by the fact that it probably moves sideways from here for a while," trader Byzantine General posted on X. "If BTC remains calm, then alts can do their own thing."

“儘管$ BTC看起來很棒，但我仍然堅持這樣一個事實，即它可能會從這裡側面移動一段時間，”交易者拜占庭將軍發佈在X上。 “如果BTC保持平靜，那麼Alts可以做自己的事情。”

Technical Indicators Signal Bitcoin Price Surge Ahead

技術指標信號比特幣價格上漲

Bitcoin's weekly MACD just made a bullish crossover, according to @AkaBull_. He noted that similar setups in the past triggered major rallies, with Bitcoin price posting multi-month gains.

根據@akabull_的說法，比特幣的每週MACD剛剛進行了看漲的跨界。他指出，過去類似的設置引發了重大集會，比特幣價格發布了多個月的收益。

"History says this move could push BTC toward new highs," he posted. "Next stop: $130K-$160K."

他說：“歷史稱，這一舉動可能會將BTC推向新的高點。” “下一站：$ 130K- $ 160K。”

CrediBULL Crypto also highlighted the bullish structure forming in the BTC/USDT pair. He explained that BTC's recent higher low formation could be the base for another leg up.

Credibull Crypto還強調了BTC/USDT對形成的看漲結構。他解釋說，BTC最近更高的低層形成可能是另一支腿的基礎。

"I've seen this sort of structure develop quite a few times before," he said. "More often than not, it leads to continuation."

他說：“我已經看到這種結構發展了很多次。” “通常會導致延續。”

Bitcoin Price Consolidation: What Lies Ahead?

比特幣價格合併：未來是什麼？

Market consensus points to a calm phase on the chart before renewed upside. Analyst Roman, among others, suggests a breakout to $120k is possible if Bitcoin price holds above $103k and clears $108k.

市場共識指出了圖表上的平靜階段，然後更新上漲。分析師羅曼（Roman）等人建議，如果比特幣價格售出103K $ 108K，則可能會突破至12萬美元。

With capital inflows rising, spot demand accelerating, and shorts piling near liquidation thresholds, traders remain watchful.

隨著資本流入的增加，現場需求加速以及在清算門檻附近堆積的短褲，交易者仍然保持警惕。

Whether the macro headwinds delay Bitcoin's larger bull cycle remains uncertain. But in the short term, bulls see room to push higher-rate cuts or not.

宏觀逆風是否會延遲比特幣的較大牛週期。但是在短期內，公牛會看到可以推動更高速度削減的空間。