Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hovered Near $103,000 as Traders Braced for Another Breakout

Bitcoin price hovered near $103,000 as traders braced for another breakout. Despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone, traders eyed a move toward $120,000 as short liquidations loomed.

Key Insights:

* Bitcoin price hovered above $103,000 on Saturday as traders braced for another breakout.

* Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and a stall in U.S. rate cut bets, traders at Standard Chartered and Incrementum AG & Co. saw a move toward $120,000 as short liquidations loomed.

* Data from TradingView showed BTC consolidating after briefly tapping $105,000 on Friday. Traders on X, formerly Twitter, remained split, but several saw a continuation of the uptrend if the flagship crypto reclaims $108,000.

BTC's Spot Volume Delta Turns Positive as Realized Cap Spikes

Glassnode data showed a sharp spike in BTC's spot buying volume this week. The 7-day simple moving average of Bitcoin's Spot Volume Delta turned positive, reaching $5 billion on May 13. This surge indicates aggressive buying activity in the spot market, typically observed preceding strong upward moves for Bitcoin price.

The rally is being driven by capital inflows and demand rather than leverage. Since April 20, there was a $30 billion increase in Bitcoin's Realized Cap, which measures the total BTC value based on the last moved price. In May, this metric is growing at a 3% monthly rate.

"This is not just speculative leverage; this is real conviction," said one Glassnode analyst.

Analyst @HolaItsAk47 pointed to a massive short squeeze risk. He warned that over $5 billion in Bitcoin shorts could get liquidated at $115,000.

"The squeeze is real. Are you positioned right?" he asked his followers.

Can BTC Price Surge Despite Waning Fed Rate Cut Bets?

CPI data on Sunday showed inflation cooling faster than expected, which initially sparked hopes of a Bitcoin price rally ahead. However, this did little to shift market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's tone remains cautious despite softening inflation.

"US CPI came in below expectations, providing a welcome reprieve," QCP Capital noted in a Telegram bulletin. "Still, the Fed remains cautious."

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price in two rate cuts in 2025, down from four expected just a month ago. The next potential cut is seen in September, not July, as previously hoped.

Despite the shift in macro sentiment, BTC's price action appears disconnected from rate expectations in the short term.

"Even though $BTC looks great IMO, I still stand by the fact that it probably moves sideways from here for a while," trader Byzantine General posted on X. "If BTC remains calm, then alts can do their own thing."

Technical Indicators Signal Bitcoin Price Surge Ahead

Bitcoin's weekly MACD just made a bullish crossover, according to @AkaBull_. He noted that similar setups in the past triggered major rallies, with Bitcoin price posting multi-month gains.

"History says this move could push BTC toward new highs," he posted. "Next stop: $130K-$160K."

CrediBULL Crypto also highlighted the bullish structure forming in the BTC/USDT pair. He explained that BTC's recent higher low formation could be the base for another leg up.

"I've seen this sort of structure develop quite a few times before," he said. "More often than not, it leads to continuation."

Bitcoin Price Consolidation: What Lies Ahead?

Market consensus points to a calm phase on the chart before renewed upside. Analyst Roman, among others, suggests a breakout to $120k is possible if Bitcoin price holds above $103k and clears $108k.

With capital inflows rising, spot demand accelerating, and shorts piling near liquidation thresholds, traders remain watchful.

Whether the macro headwinds delay Bitcoin's larger bull cycle remains uncertain. But in the short term, bulls see room to push higher-rate cuts or not.