比特币（BTC）价格徘徊在$ 103,000的$ 103,000

随着贸易商为另一个突破，比特币价格徘徊在103,000美元中。尽管美联储的鹰派语调，但随着简短的清算迫在眉睫，贸易商却望向120,000美元。

Key Insights:

关键见解：

* Bitcoin price hovered above $103,000 on Saturday as traders braced for another breakout.

*比特币价格在周六徘徊在103,000美元以上，因为交易员准备了另一个突破。

* Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and a stall in U.S. rate cut bets, traders at Standard Chartered and Incrementum AG & Co. saw a move toward $120,000 as short liquidations loomed.

*尽管美联储的鹰派语调和美国的摊位降低了赌注，但标准特许和增量AG＆Co。的交易员还是看到了$ 120,000的搬迁，因为短清算迫在眉睫。

* Data from TradingView showed BTC consolidating after briefly tapping $105,000 on Friday. Traders on X, formerly Twitter, remained split, but several saw a continuation of the uptrend if the flagship crypto reclaims $108,000.

* TradingView的数据显示，BTC在周五短暂敲击105,000美元后合并。 X上的交易者（以前是Twitter）仍然分裂，但如果旗舰加密货币（旗舰）收回108,000美元，则有几个人看到上升趋势的延续。

BTC's Spot Volume Delta Turns Positive as Realized Cap Spikes

BTC的斑点数量delta变为正面，因为已实现的盖帽尖峰

Glassnode data showed a sharp spike in BTC's spot buying volume this week. The 7-day simple moving average of Bitcoin's Spot Volume Delta turned positive, reaching $5 billion on May 13. This surge indicates aggressive buying activity in the spot market, typically observed preceding strong upward moves for Bitcoin price.

玻璃节数据显示，本周BTC的现货购买量有急剧的峰值。比特币现货数量达美比特币的7天简单移动平均线呈正变，5月13日达到50亿美元。这次涌现表明在现货市场上的积极购买活动，通常在比特币价格以强劲的向上移动之前观察到。

The rally is being driven by capital inflows and demand rather than leverage. Since April 20, there was a $30 billion increase in Bitcoin's Realized Cap, which measures the total BTC value based on the last moved price. In May, this metric is growing at a 3% monthly rate.

集会是由资本流入和需求而不是杠杆驱动的。自4月20日以来，比特币实现的上限增加了300亿美元，该上限根据上次移动的价格衡量了BTC的总价值。 5月，该指标以每月3％的速度增长。

"This is not just speculative leverage; this is real conviction," said one Glassnode analyst.

一位玻璃节分析师说：“这不仅是投机性的杠杆作用；这是真正的信念。”

Analyst @HolaItsAk47 pointed to a massive short squeeze risk. He warned that over $5 billion in Bitcoin shorts could get liquidated at $115,000.

分析师 @Helaitsak47指出了巨大的短挤压风险。他警告说，超过50亿美元的比特币短裤可能以115,000美元的价格清算。

"The squeeze is real. Are you positioned right?" he asked his followers.

“挤压是真实的。你定位对吗？”他问他的追随者。

Can BTC Price Surge Despite Waning Fed Rate Cut Bets?

尽管美联储率降低了赌注，但BTC价格上涨还是可以吗？

CPI data on Sunday showed inflation cooling faster than expected, which initially sparked hopes of a Bitcoin price rally ahead. However, this did little to shift market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's tone remains cautious despite softening inflation.

周日的CPI数据显示，通货膨胀率的冷却速度比预期的快，这最初引起了比特币价格集会的希望。但是，这并没有改变市场对降低利率的期望。尽管通货膨胀软化，美联储的语调仍然谨慎。

"US CPI came in below expectations, providing a welcome reprieve," QCP Capital noted in a Telegram bulletin. "Still, the Fed remains cautious."

QCP Capital在Telegram公告中指出：“美国CPI的期望低于预期，这给人以受欢迎的缓刑。” “尽管如此，美联储仍然谨慎。”

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price in two rate cuts in 2025, down from four expected just a month ago. The next potential cut is seen in September, not July, as previously hoped.

根据CME FedWatch工具的数据，现在市场在2025年的价格降低了两次，比一个月前的四个预期。正如先前希望的那样，下一个潜在的削减是在9月而不是七月。

Despite the shift in macro sentiment, BTC's price action appears disconnected from rate expectations in the short term.

尽管宏观情绪发生了变化，但在短期内，BTC的价格行动似乎与利率预期脱节。

"Even though $BTC looks great IMO, I still stand by the fact that it probably moves sideways from here for a while," trader Byzantine General posted on X. "If BTC remains calm, then alts can do their own thing."

“尽管$ BTC看起来很棒，但我仍然坚持这样一个事实，即它可能会从这里侧面移动一段时间，”交易者拜占庭将军发布在X上。“如果BTC保持平静，那么Alts可以做自己的事情。”

Technical Indicators Signal Bitcoin Price Surge Ahead

技术指标信号比特币价格上涨

Bitcoin's weekly MACD just made a bullish crossover, according to @AkaBull_. He noted that similar setups in the past triggered major rallies, with Bitcoin price posting multi-month gains.

根据@akabull_的说法，比特币的每周MACD刚刚进行了看涨的跨界。他指出，过去类似的设置引发了重大集会，比特币价格发布了多个月的收益。

"History says this move could push BTC toward new highs," he posted. "Next stop: $130K-$160K."

他说：“历史称，这一举动可能会将BTC推向新的高点。” “下一站：$ 130K- $ 160K。”

CrediBULL Crypto also highlighted the bullish structure forming in the BTC/USDT pair. He explained that BTC's recent higher low formation could be the base for another leg up.

Credibull Crypto还强调了BTC/USDT对形成的看涨结构。他解释说，BTC最近更高的低层形成可能是另一支腿的基础。

"I've seen this sort of structure develop quite a few times before," he said. "More often than not, it leads to continuation."

他说：“我已经看到这种结构发展了很多次。” “通常会导致延续。”

Bitcoin Price Consolidation: What Lies Ahead?

比特币价格合并：未来是什么？

Market consensus points to a calm phase on the chart before renewed upside. Analyst Roman, among others, suggests a breakout to $120k is possible if Bitcoin price holds above $103k and clears $108k.

市场共识指出了图表上的平静阶段，然后更新上涨。分析师罗曼（Roman）等人建议，如果比特币价格售出103K $ 108K，则可能会突破至12万美元。

With capital inflows rising, spot demand accelerating, and shorts piling near liquidation thresholds, traders remain watchful.

随着资本流入的增加，现场需求加速以及在清算门槛附近堆积的短裤，交易者仍然保持警惕。

Whether the macro headwinds delay Bitcoin's larger bull cycle remains uncertain. But in the short term, bulls see room to push higher-rate cuts or not.

宏观逆风是否会延迟比特币的较大牛周期。但是在短期内，公牛会看到可以推动更高速度削减的空间。