比特幣（BTC）市場在5月的第一周變成綠色，但懷疑仍然很強烈

CryptoQuant的Bull-Bear市場週期指標旨在識別加密貨幣市場中的看漲和看跌階段，最近顯示出積極的跡象。

The crypto market turned green in the first week of May, but skepticism remains strong. Some believe current signals show signs of a larger upcoming bullish cycle, especially as Bitcoin breaks a key psychological threshold.

加密貨幣市場在5月的第一周變成了綠色，但懷疑仍然很強烈。一些人認為當前的信號顯示出更大的看漲週期的跡象，尤其是比特幣打破了關鍵的心理閾值時。

However, others warn that temporary factors may be distorting the indicators. This article uses on-chain data and historical patterns to explore both sides of the argument.

但是，其他人警告說，臨時因素可能正在扭曲指標。本文使用鏈上的數據和歷史模式來探索該論點的兩面。

Is the Crypto Market About to See a Bull Run?

加密市場即將看到公牛嗎？

CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, designed to identify bullish and bearish phases in the crypto market, has recently shown positive signs.

CryptoQuant的Bull-Bear市場週期指標旨在識別加密貨幣市場中的看漲和看跌階段，最近顯示出積極的跡象。

Since February 24, 2024, the indicator has consistently signaled a bearish market. However, in recent days, it has begun to show signs of a potential reversal.

自2024年2月24日以來，該指標一直標誌著看跌市場。但是，最近幾天，它已經開始顯示出潛在逆轉的跡象。

Still, the signal remains weak and unclear. During mid-2024, this same indicator caused misleading predictions. The market moved sideways for a long time without forming a clear trend.

儘管如此，信號仍然很虛弱和不清楚。在2024年中期，同樣的指標引起了誤導性的預測。市場很長一段時間內側面移動，而沒有形成明顯的趨勢。

Analyst Burakkesmeci added observations using the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (30DMA and 365DMA) to clarify the bullish potential.

分析師Burakkesmeci使用30天和365天的移動平均（30DMA和365DMA）添加了觀察結果，以闡明看漲的潛力。

“More importantly, the Bull-Bear 30DMA — a short-term moving average — has turned upward. If this metric crosses above the Bull-Bear 365DMA, history suggests we could see parabolic rallies in Bitcoin once again,” Burakkesmeci predicted.

“更重要的是，牛熊30DMA（短期移動平均線）已經上升。如果該度量標準超過牛bear 365DMA，歷史表明我們可以再次看到比特幣中的拋物線集會，” Burakkesmeci預測。

However, analyst Darkfost offered a more cautious perspective when reviewing the Growth Rate Indicator. This indicator assesses the state of the Bitcoin market—bull or Bear—by comparing the Market Cap and Realized Cap of Bitcoin.

但是，分析師DarkFost在審查增長率指標時提供了更謹慎的觀點。該指標通過比較比特幣的市值和實現比特幣的上限來評估比特幣市場的狀態。

He noted that the indicator is returning to bullish territory, coinciding with Bitcoin ($BTC) reclaiming the crucial $100,000 mark.

他指出，該指標正在返回看漲領土，與比特幣（$ btc）相吻合，收回了至關重要的100,000美元。

Instead of predicting the end of the bear market and the start of a bull run, Darkfost warned this could be a false recovery triggered by special conditions.

Darkfost警告說，這可能是特殊條件觸發的錯誤恢復，而不是預測熊市的結束和公牛奔跑的開始。

These special conditions include Donald Trump signing a trade agreement with the UK, which helped ease concerns over tariff shocks. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance and kept interest rates unchanged.

這些特殊條件包括唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）與英國簽署了貿易協定，這有助於緩解對關稅衝擊的擔憂。同時，美聯儲保持了謹慎的立場，並保持利率不變。

“It’s possible that traditional market dynamics will continue to be disrupted for some time, making the current environment particularly difficult to read,” Darkfost said.

Darkfost說：“傳統的市場動態可能會在一段時間內繼續被破壞，從而使當前的環境特別難以閱讀。”

Another noteworthy data point is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. It rose to 73, entering the “Greed” zone — its highest level in two months. This suggests that investor sentiment is shifting from caution to excitement.

另一個值得注意的數據點是加密恐懼和貪婪指數。它上升到73，進入“貪婪”區域，這是兩個月內的最高水平。這表明投資者的情緒正在從謹慎轉變為興奮。

However, high levels of “Greed” or even “Extreme Greed” often serve as warning signs. Historically, these levels have preceded major price corrections.

但是，高水平的“貪婪”甚至“極端貪婪”通常是警告信號。從歷史上看，這些級別已在主要價格更正之前。