比特币（BTC）市场在5月的第一周变成绿色，但怀疑仍然很强烈

CryptoQuant的Bull-Bear市场周期指标旨在识别加密货币市场中的看涨和看跌阶段，最近显示出积极的迹象。

The crypto market turned green in the first week of May, but skepticism remains strong. Some believe current signals show signs of a larger upcoming bullish cycle, especially as Bitcoin breaks a key psychological threshold.

加密货币市场在5月的第一周变成了绿色，但怀疑仍然很强烈。一些人认为当前的信号显示出更大的看涨周期的迹象，尤其是比特币打破了关键的心理阈值时。

However, others warn that temporary factors may be distorting the indicators. This article uses on-chain data and historical patterns to explore both sides of the argument.

但是，其他人警告说，临时因素可能正在扭曲指标。本文使用链上的数据和历史模式来探索该论点的两面。

Is the Crypto Market About to See a Bull Run?

加密市场即将看到公牛吗？

CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, designed to identify bullish and bearish phases in the crypto market, has recently shown positive signs.

CryptoQuant的Bull-Bear市场周期指标旨在识别加密货币市场中的看涨和看跌阶段，最近显示出积极的迹象。

Since February 24, 2024, the indicator has consistently signaled a bearish market. However, in recent days, it has begun to show signs of a potential reversal.

自2024年2月24日以来，该指标一直标志着看跌市场。但是，最近几天，它已经开始显示出潜在逆转的迹象。

Still, the signal remains weak and unclear. During mid-2024, this same indicator caused misleading predictions. The market moved sideways for a long time without forming a clear trend.

尽管如此，信号仍然很虚弱和不清楚。在2024年中期，同样的指标引起了误导性的预测。市场很长一段时间内侧面移动，而没有形成明显的趋势。

Analyst Burakkesmeci added observations using the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (30DMA and 365DMA) to clarify the bullish potential.

分析师Burakkesmeci使用30天和365天的移动平均（30DMA和365DMA）添加了观察结果，以阐明看涨的潜力。

“More importantly, the Bull-Bear 30DMA — a short-term moving average — has turned upward. If this metric crosses above the Bull-Bear 365DMA, history suggests we could see parabolic rallies in Bitcoin once again,” Burakkesmeci predicted.

“更重要的是，牛熊30DMA（短期移动平均线）已经上升。如果该度量标准超过牛bear 365DMA，历史表明我们可以再次看到比特币中的抛物线集会，” Burakkesmeci预测。

However, analyst Darkfost offered a more cautious perspective when reviewing the Growth Rate Indicator. This indicator assesses the state of the Bitcoin market—bull or Bear—by comparing the Market Cap and Realized Cap of Bitcoin.

但是，分析师DarkFost在审查增长率指标时提供了更谨慎的观点。该指标通过比较比特币的市值和实现比特币的上限来评估比特币市场的状态。

He noted that the indicator is returning to bullish territory, coinciding with Bitcoin ($BTC) reclaiming the crucial $100,000 mark.

他指出，该指标正在返回看涨领土，与比特币（$ btc）相吻合，收回了至关重要的100,000美元。

Instead of predicting the end of the bear market and the start of a bull run, Darkfost warned this could be a false recovery triggered by special conditions.

Darkfost警告说，这可能是特殊条件触发的错误恢复，而不是预测熊市的结束和公牛奔跑的开始。

These special conditions include Donald Trump signing a trade agreement with the UK, which helped ease concerns over tariff shocks. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance and kept interest rates unchanged.

这些特殊条件包括唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）与英国签署了贸易协定，这有助于缓解对关税冲击的担忧。同时，美联储保持了谨慎的立场，并保持利率不变。

“It’s possible that traditional market dynamics will continue to be disrupted for some time, making the current environment particularly difficult to read,” Darkfost said.

Darkfost说：“传统的市场动态可能会在一段时间内继续被破坏，从而使当前的环境特别难以阅读。”

Another noteworthy data point is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. It rose to 73, entering the “Greed” zone — its highest level in two months. This suggests that investor sentiment is shifting from caution to excitement.

另一个值得注意的数据点是加密恐惧和贪婪指数。它上升到73，进入“贪婪”区域，这是两个月内的最高水平。这表明投资者的情绪正在从谨慎转变为兴奋。

However, high levels of “Greed” or even “Extreme Greed” often serve as warning signs. Historically, these levels have preceded major price corrections.

但是，高水平的“贪婪”甚至“极端贪婪”通常是警告信号。从历史上看，这些级别已在主要价格更正之前。