圖表顯示，比特幣（BTC）正保持支撐並準備再創新高

最近幾週，在宣布倒閉的 Mt Gox 交易所的債權人將返還約 90 億美元的比特幣後，比特幣價格出現回落，人們擔心供應會衝擊市場。

Bitcoin price has pulled back sharply in recent weeks following the announcement that creditors to the collapsed Mt Gox exchange will be returned approximately $9 billion of bitcoin, sparking concerns that the influx of supply will hit the market and weigh on the cryptocurrency’s price.

最近幾週，在宣布倒閉的 Mt Gox 交易所的債權人將返還約 90 億美元的比特幣後，比特幣價格大幅回落，引發了人們對供應湧入市場並打壓加密貨幣價格的擔憂。

That pullback has now materialized, and according to our Elliott Wave analysis of the bitcoin chart, support has possibly been formed in the zone of $59k – $49k. If successfully defended, this sets up a third attempt to break through the formidable $65k – $73k resistance zone.

這種回調現在已成為現實，根據我們對比特幣圖表的艾略特波浪分析，支撐可能已在 59,000 美元至 49,000 美元區域形成。如果成功防守，這將是第三次嘗試突破 65,000 美元至 73,000 美元的強大阻力區。

In fact, we just added a 2% holding of the new iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to our Tactical Alpha Growth portfolio at Inside Edge Capital. We are bullish and expect to see the underlying break the all-time highs and move into the $105k – $109k target zone in 2024.

事實上，我們剛剛將新的 iShares 比特幣信託 (IBIT) 的 2% 股份添加到 Inside Edge Capital 的戰術阿爾法增長投資組合中。我們看漲，預計標的資產將在 2024 年突破歷史高點並進入 105,000 美元至 109,000 美元的目標區域。

Setting aside the micro-headwind of the possible bitcoin overhead supply, we have a potential macro-tailwind that could help accelerate the rally. Looking at the 3-chart overlay below you’ll find bitcoin, gold, and US 10-year yields since 2020. If you look closely at the overlay you’ll observe two things on the chart that I find very helpful as a stock investor to help gauge the macro environment.

拋開可能的比特幣間接供應的微觀阻力，我們有一個潛在的宏觀順風，可以幫助加速反彈。看看下面的3 個圖表疊加圖，您會發現自2020 年以來的比特幣、黃金和美國10 年期收益率。者來說非常有幫助幫助衡量宏觀環境。

First is that gold and Bitcoin (blue and orange) have a very close positive correlation. ‘Heavy gold’ and ‘digital gold’ trading together?! Isn’t that like dogs and cats living together? We believe it has to do more with the market dynamic that both are currently inversely correlated to US bond yields, which is the second helpful observation. If you examine the chart closely you’ll see that the US 10-year yields in black trade with a loose inverse correlation to Bitcoin and gold. To the degree that inflation is expected to be with us longer than most think and the Fed is not likely to ease rates anytime soon, recent market activity has shown us that it negatively impacts Bitcoin and gold. Persistent inflation and higher rates also negatively impact the stock markets. Pulling it all together higher rates have a negative impact on all three; bitcoin, gold, and the stock market, which are all showing a positive relationship in recent months. Incredibly, if you are bullish the stock market you want both Bitcoin and gold to push higher that should see lower US interest rates as the first Fed rate nears.

首先，黃金和比特幣（藍色和橙色）具有非常密切的正相關性。 「重金」和「數位黃金」一起交易？這不就像狗和貓住在一起一樣嗎？我們認為，這與市場動態有更多關係，因為兩者目前都與美國債券殖利率呈負相關，這是第二個有用的觀察。如果仔細檢查圖表，您會發現黑色交易中的美國 10 年期公債殖利率與比特幣和黃金呈現鬆散的負相關關係。通膨持續的時間預計比大多數人想像的要長，而且聯準會不太可能很快放鬆利率，最近的市場活動向我們表明，它對比特幣和黃金產生了負面影響。持續的通貨膨脹和較高的利率也對股市產生負面影響。綜上所述，較高的利率對這三個面向都有負面影響；比特幣、黃金和股市，近幾個月都呈現出正面的關係。令人難以置信的是，如果你看好股市，你希望比特幣和黃金都走高，那麼隨著聯準會首次升息的臨近，美國利率應該會下降。

To the extent of how much Bitcoin has rallied relative to gold since the 2022 lows, it’s no contest. Gold is +45% compared to bitcoin’s +280% rally. To further underline bitcoin’s outperformance, take a look at a weekly ratio chart of bitcoin/gold going back to 2020. Using the same school of market analysis we see that bitcoin/gold has pulled back into support (gold out-performed Bitcoin in the Mt Gox events), but is possibly finding support ready to reassert its dominance over gold.

自 2022 年低點以來，比特幣相對於黃金的上漲幅度是無可比擬的。與比特幣上漲 280% 的漲幅相比，黃金上漲了 45%。為了進一步強調比特幣的優異表現，請看一下自2020 年以來比特幣/黃金的每週比率圖。表現優於比特幣）。

In summary, being very bullish on the stock market, I would like to see bitcoin and gold move higher along with lower US yields. But ideally we see the gains in bitcoin (and our new IBIT position) far outperform our holdings in our gold mining stocks.

總之，我非常看好股市，希望看到比特幣和黃金隨著美國殖利率的下降而走高。但理想情況下，我們看到比特幣（以及我們新的 IBIT 部位）的收益遠遠超過我們持有的金礦股票。

Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC, owns IBIT personally and in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. Charts shown are MotiveWave.

Gordon 是 Inside Edge Capital, LLC 的創始人，個人及其財富管理公司 Inside Edge Capital 擁有 IBIT。顯示的圖表是 MotiveWave。

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