图表显示，比特币（BTC）正保持支撑并准备再创新高

最近几周，在宣布倒闭的 Mt Gox 交易所的债权人将返还约 90 亿美元的比特币后，比特币价格出现回落，人们担心供应会冲击市场。

Bitcoin price has pulled back sharply in recent weeks following the announcement that creditors to the collapsed Mt Gox exchange will be returned approximately $9 billion of bitcoin, sparking concerns that the influx of supply will hit the market and weigh on the cryptocurrency’s price.

最近几周，在宣布倒闭的 Mt Gox 交易所的债权人将返还约 90 亿美元的比特币后，比特币价格大幅回落，引发了人们对供应涌入市场并打压加密货币价格的担忧。

That pullback has now materialized, and according to our Elliott Wave analysis of the bitcoin chart, support has possibly been formed in the zone of $59k – $49k. If successfully defended, this sets up a third attempt to break through the formidable $65k – $73k resistance zone.

这种回调现已成为现实，根据我们对比特币图表的艾略特波浪分析，支撑可能已在 59,000 美元至 49,000 美元区域形成。如果成功防守，这将是第三次尝试突破 65,000 美元至 73,000 美元的强大阻力区。

In fact, we just added a 2% holding of the new iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to our Tactical Alpha Growth portfolio at Inside Edge Capital. We are bullish and expect to see the underlying break the all-time highs and move into the $105k – $109k target zone in 2024.

事实上，我们刚刚将新的 iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT) 的 2% 股份添加到 Inside Edge Capital 的战术阿尔法增长投资组合中。我们看涨，预计标的资产将在 2024 年突破历史高点并进入 105,000 美元至 109,000 美元的目标区域。

Setting aside the micro-headwind of the possible bitcoin overhead supply, we have a potential macro-tailwind that could help accelerate the rally. Looking at the 3-chart overlay below you’ll find bitcoin, gold, and US 10-year yields since 2020. If you look closely at the overlay you’ll observe two things on the chart that I find very helpful as a stock investor to help gauge the macro environment.

抛开可能的比特币间接供应的微观阻力，我们有一个潜在的宏观顺风，可以帮助加速反弹。查看下面的 3 个图表叠加图，您会发现自 2020 年以来的比特币、黄金和美国 10 年期收益率。如果您仔细观察叠加图，您会发现图表上的两件事对我作为股票投资者来说非常有帮助帮助衡量宏观环境。

First is that gold and Bitcoin (blue and orange) have a very close positive correlation. ‘Heavy gold’ and ‘digital gold’ trading together?! Isn’t that like dogs and cats living together? We believe it has to do more with the market dynamic that both are currently inversely correlated to US bond yields, which is the second helpful observation. If you examine the chart closely you’ll see that the US 10-year yields in black trade with a loose inverse correlation to Bitcoin and gold. To the degree that inflation is expected to be with us longer than most think and the Fed is not likely to ease rates anytime soon, recent market activity has shown us that it negatively impacts Bitcoin and gold. Persistent inflation and higher rates also negatively impact the stock markets. Pulling it all together higher rates have a negative impact on all three; bitcoin, gold, and the stock market, which are all showing a positive relationship in recent months. Incredibly, if you are bullish the stock market you want both Bitcoin and gold to push higher that should see lower US interest rates as the first Fed rate nears.

首先，黄金和比特币（蓝色和橙色）具有非常密切的正相关性。 “重金”和“数字黄金”一起交易？！这不就像狗和猫住在一起一样吗？我们认为，这与市场动态有更多关系，因为两者目前都与美国债券收益率呈负相关，这是第二个有用的观察结果。如果您仔细检查图表，您会发现黑色交易中的美国 10 年期国债收益率与比特币和黄金呈松散的负相关关系。预计通胀持续的时间比大多数人想象的要长，而且美联储不太可能很快放松利率，最近的市场活动向我们表明，它对比特币和黄金产生了负面影响。持续的通货膨胀和较高的利率也对股市产生负面影响。综上所述，较高的利率对这三个方面都有负面影响；比特币、黄金和股市，近几个月都呈现出积极的关系。令人难以置信的是，如果你看好股市，你希望比特币和黄金都走高，那么随着美联储首次加息的临近，美国利率应该会下降。

To the extent of how much Bitcoin has rallied relative to gold since the 2022 lows, it’s no contest. Gold is +45% compared to bitcoin’s +280% rally. To further underline bitcoin’s outperformance, take a look at a weekly ratio chart of bitcoin/gold going back to 2020. Using the same school of market analysis we see that bitcoin/gold has pulled back into support (gold out-performed Bitcoin in the Mt Gox events), but is possibly finding support ready to reassert its dominance over gold.

自 2022 年低点以来，比特币相对于黄金的上涨幅度是无可比拟的。与比特币上涨 280% 的涨幅相比，黄金上涨了 45%。为了进一步强调比特币的优异表现，请看一下自 2020 年以来比特币/黄金的每周比率图。使用同一流派的市场分析，我们发现比特币/黄金已回落至支撑位（黄金在 2020 年的表现优于比特币）。 Gox 事件），但可能会找到支持，准备重申其对黄金的主导地位。

In summary, being very bullish on the stock market, I would like to see bitcoin and gold move higher along with lower US yields. But ideally we see the gains in bitcoin (and our new IBIT position) far outperform our holdings in our gold mining stocks.

总之，我非常看好股市，希望看到比特币和黄金随着美国收益率的下降而走高。但理想情况下，我们看到比特币（以及我们新的 IBIT 头寸）的收益远远超过我们持有的金矿股票。

Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC, owns IBIT personally and in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. Charts shown are MotiveWave.

Gordon 是 Inside Edge Capital, LLC 的创始人，个人及其财富管理公司 Inside Edge Capital 拥有 IBIT。显示的图表是 MotiveWave。

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