定量貿易公司Presto研究主管Peter Chung說

定量貿易公司Presto研究主管Peter Chung在周一在CNBC的Squawk Box上進行了現場採訪，重申了他堅信比特幣可以達到210,000美元

The news articles highlight a recent interview on CNBC's Squawk Box with Peter Chung, Head of Research at quantitative trading firm Presto. Chung, known for his bold predictions, maintained his firm's Bitcoin price target of $210,000 by year-end 2025 despite the recent market downturn.

新聞文章重點介紹了最近在CNBC的Squawk盒子上與定量貿易公司Presto研究主管Peter Chung進行的一次採訪。 Chung以其大膽的預測而聞名，儘管最近的市場下跌，但到2025年，他公司的比特幣目標價為210,000美元。

"We have not changed our market outlook," Chung asserted. "Bitcoin target price remains $210,000, driven by institutional adoption and the global liquidity expansion."

鐘斷言：“我們沒有改變市場前景。” “由機構採用和全球流動性擴張驅動的比特幣目標價格仍然是210,000美元。”

This optimistic outlook stands in stark contrast to the skepticism of some market analysts, who have expressed doubts over the possibility of Bitcoin reaching such high levels. However, Chung's predictions are based on a unique macroeconomic model developed by Presto, which factors in variables like global M2 money supply, central bank balance sheet trajectories, and institutional order-flow data.

這種樂觀的前景與一些市場分析師的懷疑形成了鮮明的對比，他們對比特幣達到如此高的可能性表示懷疑。但是，Chung的預測基於Presto開發的獨特宏觀經濟模型，該模型的因素是全球M2貨幣供應，中央銀行資產負債表軌跡和機構訂單流數據等變量的因素。

"The proportion of block trades above $10 million in Bitcoin perpetual futures is back above 7 percent of total volume for the first time since November 2023," Chung revealed.

Chung透露：“自2023年11月以來，比特幣永久期貨超過1000萬美元的比特幣永久期貨的比例恢復了總數的7％。”

According to Chung, the optimistic price target is also linked to the urgency of investors seeking geopolitical insurance in a world rife with macroeconomic instability.

鐘錶示，樂觀的目標目標還與在世界上宏觀不穩定的世界盛行中尋求地緣政治保險的投資者的緊迫性有關。

"Most of the time Bitcoin behaves like a risk-on asset, especially during periods of low inflation and high economic growth. But it's during a crisis that Bitcoin behaves like gold, offering a store of value and a hedge against inflation. These moments are rare, Chung explained. "They happen only when the market has doubts about the stability of the US-dollar-dominated financial system, such as during the Covid crisis or the invasion of Ukraine, and that's what we saw in the month of April."

“大部分時間比特幣的行為就像是風險對貨幣的行為，尤其是在低通貨膨脹和高經濟增長的時期。但是，在危機期間，比特幣的行為就像黃金一樣，提供了價值和對沖通貨膨脹的儲存。這些時刻很少見。這就是我們在四月看到的。”

The interview unfolded as follows:

採訪進行如下：

The anchors questioned Chung about the surprising surge in gold prices in April, while Bitcoin initially lagged. Chung responded by attributing it to a "mid-cycle purge," where overheated leverage in crypto markets got flushed out ahead of the next bull market leg.

錨向Chung詢問了4月的黃金價格上漲，而比特幣最初落後。 Chung的回應是將其歸因於“中期清除”，在加密貨幣市場中，過熱的槓桿作用在下一個牛市市場之前被沖出。

"We observed that the bulk of the move in gold prices occurred in the final week of April, specifically on April 20, when the administrative part of the U.S. debt-ceiling crisis reached its peak, leading to a panic-driven selloff in risk assets across the board. This coincided with the complete liquidation of large leveraged token traders, a phenomenon we hadn't witnessed since the FTX collapse in November 2023."

“我們觀察到，黃金價格的大部分舉動發生在4月的最後一周，尤其是在4月20日，當時美國債務危機的行政部分達到了頂峰，導致全面的風險資產拋棄了恐慌驅動的拋售。這與大型槓桿式交易者的完全清算相吻合。

The interviewers pressed further, asking what would lead to a downward revision of the $210,000 price target. Chung replied that two main factors could affect their outlook.

面試官進一步施壓，詢問什麼會導致210,000美元目標目標的下降。 Chung回答說，兩個主要因素可能會影響其前景。

"A lasting collapse in real global M2, which would strangle risk capital and suppress the liquidity premium that pushes scarce digital assets higher, or a fatal consensus bug or governance failure inside the Bitcoin network—an event that has never happened in fifteen years but that any quantitative risk model must include."

“實際的全球M2持續崩潰，它將扼殺風險資本並抑制流動性溢價，這將稀缺的數字資產推動了更高的數字資產，或者比特幣網絡內的致命共識蟲子或治理失敗，這一事件在十五年以前從未發生過，但任何定量風險模型都必須包括。”

Chung concluded by saying that, ultimately, the path of Bitcoin prices will depend on the choices investors make.

Chung結束時說，最終，比特幣價格的道路將取決於投資者所做的選擇。